Today we have a loaded midweek slate of MLB action with 15-games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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6:45 p.m. ET: New York Mets (-145, 8.5) at Washington Nationals
The Mets (42-41) have taken the first two games of this four-game series, winning the opener 9-7 in extra innings as -115 road favorites and then winning again last night 7-2 in extra innings as -140 road favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Mets start righty Christian Scott (0-2, 3.90 ERA) and the Nationals (39-46) go with lefty Mitchell Parker (5-4, 3.32 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -130 road favorite and Washington a +120 home dog. Sharps are riding the hot hand and have laid the chalk with the Mets, steaming New York up from -130 to -145. The Mets are receiving 72% of moneyline bets and 81% of moneyline dollars, signaling one-way support from both wiseguys and the betting public in addition to a 15-cent steam move in their favor. The Mets have the edge offensively, hitting .251 with 106 homers and 409 runs scored compared to the Nationals hitting .235 with only 68 homers and 350 runs scored. Scott has pitched well in his last two starts, allowing 4 earned runs in 11 innings pitched. New York is hitting .266 against lefties this season, 6th-best in MLB. The Mets are 21-16 on the road. The Nationals are 17-21 at home. New York is 5-0 against Washington this season. The Mets are 7-3 over their last ten games, hitting .280 with a 4.16 ERA. The Nationals are 2-8 over their last ten games, hitting .225 with a 5.47 ERA.
7:07 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (-115, 8.5) at Toronto Blue Jays
These teams have split the first two games of this four-game series. The Astros (43-42) took the opener 3-1, taking care of business as -130 road favorites. Then the Blue Jays (39-46) bounced back with a 7-6 win yesterday, cashing as -115 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Astros turn to righty Ronel Blanco (8-3, 2.49 ERA) and the Blue Jays go with lefty Yusei Kikuchi (4-8, 4.18 ERA). This line opened with Toronto listed as a -110 home favorite and Houston a +100 road dog. Sharps have gotten down hard on the Astros at a coin-flip price, steaming Houston up to a -115 road favorite. In other words, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of the Astros (+100 to -115). Houston is receiving 76% of moneyline bets and 94% of moneyline dollars, indicating modest public support but also heavy sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. The Astros have buy-low, bounce-back value as a favorite off a loss playing an opponent off a win. Houston also has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. Houston has the better offense, hitting .263 with 100 homers and 397 runs scored compared to Toronto hitting .235 with 78 homers and 343 runs scored. Blanco had a 2.59 ERA in five June starts, allowing 9 earned runs in 31.1 innings pitched. Houston is 11-4 in Blanco’s 15 starts this season. He has a 2.36 ERA on the road compared to 2.61 at home. Kikuchi had a 6.26 ERA in six June starts, allowing 19 earned runs in 27.1 innings pitched. The Astros are hitting .266 against lefties this season, 6th-best in MLB.
8:40 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (-165, 11.5) at Colorado Rockies
These teams have split the first two games of this four-game series. The Rockies (29-56) stole the opener 8-7 in extra innings, cashing as +120 home dogs. Then the Brewers (51-35) bounced back with a 4-3 win yesterday, taking care of business as -115 road favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Brewers hand the ball to righty Colin Rea (7-2, 3.61 ERA) and the Rockies counter with fellow righty Dakota Hudson (2-11, 5.84 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -150 road favorite and Colorado a +130 home dog. Sharps have pounced on the Brewers laying relatively modest chalk, steaming Milwaukee up from -150 to -165. The Brewers are receiving 83% of moneyline bets and 94% of moneyline dollars, signaling a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in addition to a 15-cent steam move in their favor. Milwaukee has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. The Brewers have the better offense, hitting .258 with 416 runs scored compared to the Rockies hitting .244 with 361 runs scored. Milwaukee is 11-5 in Rea’s 16 starts this season. Hudson had a 7.77 in five June starts (all losses), allowing 21 earned runs in 24.1 innings pitched. He has a 8.58 ERA at home compared to 3.72 on the road. The Brewers are 24-22 on the road. The Rockies are 17-25 at home. Milwaukee is 7-3 over their last ten games, hitting .296 with a 3.50 ERA. Colorado is 3-7 over their last ten games, hitting .210 with a 5.48 ERA.
