Today we have a loaded MLB slate with 15-games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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2:10 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays at Milwaukee Brewers (-125, 9)
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series. The Brewers (39-28) took the opener 3-1, taking care of business as -120 home favorites. Then the Blue Jays (33-34) bounced back with a 3-0 victory yesterday, cashing as -115 road favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Blue Jays hand the ball to righty Chris Bassitt (6-6, 3.80 ERA) and the Brewers turn to fellow righty Tobias Myers (2-2, 4.15 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick’em with both sides listed around -110 odds. Sharps have pounced on Milwaukee at home laying a coin-flip price, steaming the Brewers up from -110 to -125. Milwaukee is receiving 57% of moneyline bets and 60% of moneyline dollars, signaling modest public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. The Brewers have the better bats, hitting .255 with 70 homers and 326 runs scored compared to the Blue Jays hitting .232 with 55 homers and 261 runs scored. Favorites with a winning record coming off a loss playing an opponent with a losing record are 65-36 (64%) with a 4% ROI this season. The Brewers are 19-11 at home. The Blue Jays are 17-19 on the road. Myers is coming off a 10-0 win over the Tigers in which he threw eight innings and allowed zero runs and only one hit.
3:45 p.m. ET: Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants (-120, 7.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series. The Giants (33-35) won the opener 4-3 in extra innings, cashing as +100 home dogs. Then the Astros (31-37) clawed back with a 3-1 win yesterday, cashing as +105 road dogs. In this late afternoon series finale, the Astros go with lefty Framber Valdez (5-3, 3.53 ERA) and the Giants send out righty Logan Webb (5-5, 2.92 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know which side to take. However, despite the 50/50 bet split, we’ve seen the Giants creep up from -110 to -120. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even. So, we know based on then 10-cent move that wiseguys have gotten down on the Giants. San Francisco is only receiving 50% of moneyline bets but 65% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers backing the home team. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off win, as is the case here with the Giants, are 211-136 (61%) with a 4% ROI this season. San Francisco also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win.
6:35 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Orioles (-125, 8.5)
The Orioles (44-22) took last night’s Interleague series opener 4-0, cashing as +120 home dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Braves (35-29) send out righty Spencer Schwellenbach (0-2, 8.38 ERA) and the Orioles tap lefty Cade Povich (0-1, 10.13 ERA). This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -115 home favorite and Atlanta a +105 road dog. Sharps have rushed to the window to back the red-hot Orioles laying a cheap chalk price at home, steaming the Birds up from -115 to -125. Baltimore is receiving roughly 80% of moneyline bets and dollars, signaling one-way support from both Pros and Joes. The Orioles have the better offense, hitting .249 with 105 homers and 340 runs scored compared to the Braves hitting .243 with 65 homers and 279 runs scored. Home Interleague favorites off a win, like the Orioles here, are 53-33 (62%) with a 4% ROI this season. We’ve also seen the total fall from 9 to 8.5 at several shops. When the total falls at least a half run, the favorite is 202-133 (60%) with a 2% ROI. Atlanta is 16-17 on the road. Baltimore is 22-12 at home. The Orioles are 7-3 over their last ten games, hitting .265 with a 1.84 ERA. The Braves are 4-6 over their last ten games, hitting .207 with a 4.98 ERA.
