Today we have a loaded midweek MLB slate with 16-games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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2:10 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers (-120, 8.5) at Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers (47-33) have taken the first two games of this Interleague series, winning the opener 6-3 as -165 home favorites and then winning again last night 3-1 as a -105 home pick’em. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Rangers (37-42) hand the ball to Nathan Eovaldi (4-3, 3.14 ERA) and the Brewers go with lefty Dallas Keuchel, who was recently acquired in a trade and will make his 2024 debut (Keuchel was 7-4 with a 3.93 ERA in AAA this season). This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -105 odds. Sharps have decided to fade Keuchel and have pounced on the Rangers, steaming Texas up from -105 to -120. Essentially, we are seeing sharp “pick’em to favorite” line movement in favor of the Rangers. Texas is receiving 47% of moneyline bets but 63% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 253-163 (61%) with a 4% ROI this season. Road favorites with 10-cents of steam or more are 47-28 (63%) with a 5% ROI. Sweet spot short road favorites -130 or less are 115-96 (55%) with a 2% ROI. Texas also has value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the team who is expected to win. The Rangers are 5-2 in Eovaldi’s last seven starts. Keuchel went 2-1 with a 5.97 ERA in ten appearances for the Twins in 2023.
4:07 p.m. ET: Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels (-125, 9)
The Angels (32-46) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 5-1 as -135 home favorites and then winning again last night 7-5 as -115 home favorites. In this late afternoon series finale, the Athletics (29-53) turn to righty Joey Estes (2-2, 5.53 ERA) and the Angels tap fellow righty Roansy Contreras (1-0, 3.90 ERA). This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -115 home favorite and Oakland a +105 road dog. Sharps have laid the short chalk with the Angels to complete the sweep, driving Los Angeles up from -115 to -125. The Angels are receiving roughly 65% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating both Pro and Joe support in addition to a 10-cent steam move in their favor. Los Angeles has the edge on offense, hitting .236 with 319 runs scored compared to Oakland hitting .221 with 294 runs scored. When two sub .500 teams face off, the favorite is 165-111 (60%) with a 2% ROI this season. Estes has an 8.02 ERA on the road compared to 2.79 at home. Oakland is 11-30 on the road, the 2nd worst road team in MLB ahead of only the White Sox (8-33). Pros also seem to be leaning over as the total is 9 with the over juiced to -115. The forecast calls for low 80s with clear skies and 10 MPH winds blowing out to dead center at Angel Stadium.
7:10 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (-125, 8.5) at New York Mets
The Mets (38-39) stole last night’s Interleague series opener 9-7, cashing as +125 home dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Yankees (52-29) send out righty Luis Gil (9-2, 2.77 ERA) and the Mets rebuttal with lefty Sean Manaea (4-3, 4.16 ERA). This line opened with the Yankees listed as a -140 road favorite and the Mets a +120 home dog. The public expects the Yankees to bounce back and they’re rushing to the window to lay the chalk with the Bronx Bombers. However, despite receiving 83% of moneyline bets we’ve seen the Yankees fall from -140 to -125. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Mets, with the line moving in their favor (+120 to +110) despite being the unpopular bet. The Mets are only receiving 17% of moneyline bets, making them the top contrarian play of the day. The Mets have correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (8.5), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities. Nic Lentz, the home plate ump, is 59% to the home team historically. The Mets are 8-2 over their last ten games, hitting .304 with a 3.48 ERA. Meanwhile, the Yankees are 3-7 over their last ten games, hitting just .214 with a 6.03 ERA. Gil has a 5.50 ERA in four June starts and just got lit up by the Orioles, allowing 7 earned runs in just 1.1 innings pitched.
