Today we have a loaded 16-game MLB slate to choose from, including several day sweats. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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1:05 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies (-165, 8.5)
The Phillies (26-11) are 11-1 over their last 12 games and just won last night’s Interleague series opener 10-1, cruising as -115 home favorites. In this early afternoon rematch, the Blue Jays (16-20) hand the ball to righty Chris Bassitt (2-5, 5.45 ERA) and the Phillies counter with fellow righty Aaron Nola (4-1, 3.32 ERA). This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -145 home favorite and Toronto a +130 road dog. Sharps seem to be thinking “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” and have gotten down hard on the Phillies, steaming Philadelphia up from -145 to -165. The Phillies are receiving roughly 90% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating heavy one-way support from both Pros and Joes. The Phillies have the better offense, hitting .258 with 46 homers and 188 runs scored compared to the Blue Jays hitting .226 with 30 homers and 129 runs scored. Interleague favorites off a win, like the Phillies here, are 47-32 (60%) this season. Philadelphia is 15-6 at home. Toronto is 8-13 on the road. The Blue Jays are just 3-10 over their last 13 games. The Phillies are 6-1 in Nola’s seven starts. The Blue Jays are 2-5 in Bassitt’s seven starts.
2:20 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres (-130, 7.5) at Chicago Cubs
This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Padres (19-20) won the opener 6-3, cashing as -105 road dogs. Then the Cubs (22-15) bounced back with a 3-2 victory yesterday, taking care of business as -165 home favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Padres start righty Dylan Cease (4-2, 2.55 ERA) and the Cubs go with fellow righty Hayden Wesneski (2-0, 0.54 ERA). This line opened with San Diego listed as a -120 road favorite and Chicago a +110 home dog. Wiseguys have jumped on San Diego laying cheap chalk, driving the Padres up from -120 to -130. This move is notable because San Diego is only receiving 54% of moneyline bets. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move 10-cents based off a relatively split ticket count. So, we know this line move was triggered by sharps getting down on the Padres, causing steam in their favor. Road favorites are 108-72 (60%) with a 6% ROI this season. Favorites off a loss are 137-94 (60%) with a 2% ROI. Sweet spot short road favorites -130 or less are 58-41 (59%) with a 9% ROI. San Diego has the better bats, hitting .261 and scoring 195 runs compared to Chicago hitting .238 and scoring 174 runs. The Padres also have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win the game.
7:05 p.m. ET: Houston Astros at New York Yankees (-150, 9.5)
The Yankees (24-13) took last night’s series opener 10-3, easily cashing as -125 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Astros (12-23) start righty Spencer Arrighetti (0-3, 8.27 ERA) and the Yankees go with lefty Carlos Rodon (2-2, 3.68 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -135 home favorite and Houston a +120 road dog. Wiseguys have pounced on the Yankees laying modest chalk at home, steaming the Bronx Bombers up from -135 to -150. New York is receiving roughly 85% of moneyline bets and dollars, signaling lopsided support from both sharps and the betting public. The Yankees have value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team. New York has the superior offense, hitting 46 homers and scoring 176 runs compared to Houston hitting 40 homers and scoring 154 runs. The Yankees are 12-5 at home. Houston is just 5-11 on the road. The Yankees also have a major bullpen advantage, as New York ranks first in bullpen ERA (2.22) while Houston ranks 20th (4.55). The Yankees are +49 in run differential. The Astros are -27. Brian O’Nora, the home plate ump, is 55% to the home team, historically. Rodon has a 1.38 ERA at home. Arrighetti has a 14.85 ERA on the road.
