Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, April 14, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
Top MLB Resources:
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and a ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-110 vs MIN), SAN FRANCISCO (-122 at TB), TEXAS (+100 at HOU), SEATTLE (-142 vs CHC)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution as to getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches: PLAY TORONTO (-265 vs COL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-192 vs. MIL), TORONTO (-265 vs. COL), KANSAS CITY (-130 at NYM), CINCINNATI (-162 at CWS), WASHINGTON (+114 at OAK), CHICAGO CUBS (+120 at SEA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in CHC-SEA (o/u at 7.5)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-185 vs. PIT), BALTIMORE (-192 vs. MIL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up & down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023 were 101-65 (60.8%) for +15.3 units and ROI of +9.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-155 at MIA), NY YANKEES (-135 at CLE), KANSAS CITY (-130 at NYM), TEXAS (+100 at HOU), CINCINNATI (-162 vs CWS), WASHINGTON (+114 at OAK), CHICAGO CUBS (+120 at SEA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return. Considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TORONTO RL, ATLANTA RL, CINCINNATI RL
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024 (through Monday, April 9), they are 77-69 for -12.71 units.
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTA, ARIZONA, LA DODGERS, LA ANGELS, CLEVELAND, MINNESOTA, HOUSTON, TORONTO, NY METS, SAN FRANCISCO, CINCINNATI, OAKLAND, SEATTLE
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an R.O.I. of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are off to a hot start,11-3 for +4.86 units.
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE (-192 vs MIL)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 midseason bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites proved worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this angle settled at +4.4%. So far in the 2024 season, the record of this angle is 13-10 for -9.21 units.
System Matches: PLAY TORONTO (-265 vs COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in 2023 arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The R.O.I. of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the ’24 season, these teams have produced a 25-28 record for +0.14 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS (+114 at BOS), CLEVELAND (+114 vs NYY), MINNESOTA (-110 at DET), NY METS (+110 vs KC)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, we found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an R.O.I. of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game-winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The R.O.I. on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have started in the opposite direction, going 16-11 for +6.86 units. The three-game teams are 9-6 for +3.08 units. I don’t expect this is continue for long because the foundation of this system is based on the fact that these teams don’t win over the long term.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE NY YANKEES (-135 at CLE)
3+ games – FADE MILWAUKEE (+160 at BAL)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven-runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 318-293 (52%) for +38.86 units of profit. This represents an R.O.I. of 6.4%.
System Matches (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+102 vs. SF)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1457-1367 (51.6%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -178.84 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-122 at TB), HOUSTON (-120 vs. TEX), MILWAUKEE (+160 at BAL), KANSAS CITY (-124 at NYM)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1314-1707 (43.5%) for -164.02 units and an R.O.I. of -5.4% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS (+100 at HOU), LA ANGELS (+114 at BOS), ATLANTA (-155 at MIA), ST LOUIS (+130 at AZ), SAN DIEGO (+136 at LAD)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2935-2571 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -390.81 units and R.O.I. of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS, BOSTON, MIAMI, HOUSTON, BALTIMORE, TORONTO, NY METS
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had 4 hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 826-707 (53.9%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +24.70 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 1.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+136 vs CIN), DETROIT (-110 vs MIN)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 421-349 (54.7%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +28.90 units, for an R.O.I. of 3.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-162 vs. SD), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+136 vs. CIN)
MLB Streak Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 16-43 (-12.25 units, ROI: -20.8%) in their last 59 tries.
System Matches: FADE MILWAUKEE (+160 at BAL)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 59-62 (-28.98 units, ROI: -24%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE MILWAUKEE (+160 at BAL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE +160 (+20 diff), COLORADO +215 (+45 diff), NY METS +110 (+32 diff), WASHINGTON +114 (+22 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATLANTA -155 (+16 diff), LA DODGERS -162 (+17 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: KC-NYM OVER 8 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAA-BOS UNDER 10 (-1.1), PIT-PHI UNDER 8.5 (-0.9), MIN-DET UNDER 8.5 (-0.8), CIN-CWS UNDER 9 (-0.6)
MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(951) PITTSBURGH (10-5) at (952) PHILADELPHIA (8-7)
Trend: Pittsburgh is 7-16 (-8.72 units) vs NL East teams with starter Mitch Keller in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (+154 at PHI)
Trend: Zach Wheeler is 14-3 (+8.75 units) as a home favorite between -165 and -190 in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-185 vs PIT)
Trend: 16-3 (+11.95 units) in the last 19 day game starts by Zach Wheeler
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-185 vs PIT)
(957) SAN DIEGO (8-9) at (958) LOS ANGELES-NL (11-6)
Trend: James Paxton was 2-6 (-6.65 units) last season vs non-LAD NL teams (1-0, +1.00 unit this season)
System Match: CONSIDER FADING LA DODGERS (-162 vs SD)
Trend: James Paxton was 3-13 (-11.92 units) last season as a favorite (2-0, +2.00 units this season)System Match: CONSIDER FADING LA DODGERS (-162 vs SD)
(961) NEW YORK-AL (12-3) at (962) CLEVELAND (9-5)
Trend: Cleveland was 10-2 (+8.45 units) in the -120 to +125 line range by starter Logan Allen last year
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+114 vs NYY)
(963) MINNESOTA (6-7) at (964) DETROIT (8-6)
Trend: Minnesota is 3-9 (-7.22 units) between the line range of -105 to -125 with starter Bailey Ober in the last three seasons
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-110 at DET)
(965) TEXAS (8-7) at (966) HOUSTON (5-11)
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi is 18-3 (+15.30 units) in the last 21 day game starts
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (+100 at HOU)
Trend: Houston is 17-3 (+13.10 units) during the day with Cristian Javier in L2 seasons
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON (-120 vs TEX)
(967) MILWAUKEE (10-3) at (968) BALTIMORE (8-6)
Trend: Corbin Burnes just 11-13 (-4.67 units) against teams with a 58% or higher win pct
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE (-192 vs MIL)
(969) COLORADO (4-11) at (970) TORONTO (7-8)
Trend: Colorado was 3-11 (-5.75 units) on the road last year with starter Kyle Freeland (0-2, -2.00 units this season)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+210 at TOR)
Trend: Jose Berrios is 20-4 (+8.95 units) as a home favorite of -190 or higher in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-258 vs COL)
Trend: Jose Berrios is 21-5 (+12.80 units) in home day games in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-258 vs COL)
(977) WASHINGTON (6-8) at (978) OAKLAND (6-9)
Trend: Alex Wood is 10-2 (+6.10 units) as a day game favorite of -133 or higher in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY OAKLAND (-135 vs WSH)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY
