Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, April 6, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals.
Top MLB Resources:
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 untis and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): MINNESOTA (-162 vs CLE)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-135 at PIT), SEATTLE (+102 at MIL), TAMPA BAY (-148 at COL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in TOR-NYK (o/u at 7.5)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE): MINNESOTA (-162 vs CLE)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up & down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023 were 101-65 (60.8%) for +15.3 units and ROI of +9.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-192 at CHC), PHILADELPHIA (-180 at WSH), BALTIMORE (-135 at PIT), HOUSTON (-110 at TEX), SEATTLE (+102 at MIL), TAMPA BAY (-148 at COL), SAN DIEGO (-112 at SF), BOSTON (-105 at LAA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return, but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and, if it continues in ’24, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES RL, MILWAUKEE RL
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams that are not favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the last regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment
System Matches: ST LOUIS, PHILADELPHIA, NY METS, SAN FRANCISCO, DETROIT, MINNESOTA, NY YANKEES, HOUSTON, KANSAS CITY, BOSTON, BALTIMORE, SEATTLE, TAMPA BAY
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games last regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. This represented an R.O.I. of -30.5%! These are, in essence, the definition of overpriced favorites: teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two. So far for the 2024 season, they are 6-2 for +2.1 units.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (-218 vs AZ), FADE LA DODGERS (-192 at CHC)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A mid-2023 season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this angle fell in the last couple of weeks as some of the big favorites no longer had any playoff stakes on the line but still settled at +4.4%. So far, for the 2024 season, they are 8-3 for +1.78 units.
System Matches: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-218 vs CWS)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the 2023 regular season! This situation was rare, only coming up about 25 times per month, but should have been taken advantage of when it arose. The R.O.I. on this amazing angle for the season steadied at an amazing -56.6%! By fading these teams, a season-long backer of this system would have netted about +70 units of profit! This season, these big favorites are 3-4 for -5.20 units.
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS (-192 at CHC)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system last season arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2023 season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The R.O.I. of this angle produced a healthy 10.4%. So far, for the 2024 season, they are 12-10 for +3.32 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (+102 at CIN), SAN FRANCISCO (-108 vs. SD), HOUSTON (-110 at TEX), BOSTON (-105 at LAA), SEATTLE (+102 at MIL)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 241-249 for -27.51 units, an R.O.I. of -5.6% (this 2024 season, they are 3-3 for -0.42 units). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game-winning streaks finished last regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The R.O.I. on that system finished at -7.6% (this 2024 season, they are 5-2 for +3.88 units).
System Matches: 2-games – FADE TEXAS (-110 vs HOU)
3+ games – FADE CHICAGO CUBS (+160 vs. LAD), FADE CLEVELAND (+136 at MIN)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system” (this 2024 season they are 8-5 for +1.38 units).
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-105 at LAA)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The R.O.I. for the season closed at 11.2% (this 2024 season, they are 2-5 for -4.59 units).
System Matches: PLAY SEATTLE (+102 at MIL)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game.
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1447-1353 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -175.24 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS (-110 vs. HOU), COLORADO (+124 vs. TB), CHICAGO CUBS (+160 vs LAD)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing.
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1294-1697 (43.3%) for -176.44 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO (-112 at SD), HOUSTON (-110 at TEX), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+180 at KC)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing.
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2916-2543 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -373.75 units and R.O.I. of -6.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-166 vs OAK), CHICAGO CUBS (+160 vs LAD), COLORADO (+124 vs TB), ST LOUIS (-148 vs MIA), ATLANTA (-218 vs AZ), MILWAUKEE (-122 vs SEA), LA ANGELS (-115 vs BOS), TEXAS (-110 vs HOU)
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long.
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 820-700 (53.9%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +25.88 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 1.7%.
System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON (+145 vs PHI)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 415-345 (54.6%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +27.40 units, for an R.O.I. of 3.6%.
System Matches: PLAY NY YANKEES (-115 vs TOR)
MLB Streak Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 22-68 skid (-30.2 units, ROI -33.6%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Matches: FADE MIAMI (+124 at STL)
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 43-93 skid (-27.09 units, ROI: -19.9%).
System Matches: FADE MIAMI (+124 at STL)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend do fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 14-15 (+8.77 units, ROI: 30.2%), while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 53-117 (-49.60 units, ROI: -29.2%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE MIAMI (+124 at STL)
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 71-58 outright (+5.75 units, ROI: 4.5%).
System Matches: PLAY MIAMI (+124 at STL)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 131-106 run (+50.06 units, ROI: 21.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OAKLAND (+140 at DET)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 100-99(+17.12 units, ROI: 9.2%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY MIAMI (+124 at STL), PLAY OAKLAND (+140 at DET)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 148-96 in their last 244 tries (+23.47 units, ROI: 9.6%).
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (+160 vs LAD), PLAY BOSTON (-105 at LAA)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 58-59 (-25.53 units, ROI: -21.8%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO CUBS (+160 vs LAD)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS +160 (+27 diff), WASHINGTON +150 (+17 diff), ARIZONA +180 (+24 diff), SAN FRANCISCO -108 (+16 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+15 diff), SEATTLE +102 (+16 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI -122 (+17 diff), HOUSTON -110 (+15 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TOR-NYY OVER 7.5 (+1.0), LAD-CHC OVER 8 (+0.5), SD-SF OVER 8 (+0.5), SEA-MIL OVER 8 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CWS-KC UNDER 9 (-1.2), TB-COL UNDER 11 (-0.9), HOU-TEX UNDER 10 (-0.9), NYM-CIN UNDER 9.5 (-0.6), OAK-DET UNDER 8 (-0.5)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(951) MIAMI (0-8) at (952) ST LOUIS (4-4)
Trend: Miami is 9-22 (-10.29 units) on the road with starter Trevor Rogers since 2020
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+124 at STL)
Trend: Miami is 7-25 (-16.21 units) as an underdog within line range -109 to +154 with Trevor Rogers since 2020
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+124 at STL)
(955) PHILADELPHIA (3-4) at (956) WASHINGTON (2-5)
Trend: Philadelphia is 2-8 (-12.68 units) as a favorite within -170 to -198 line range with starter Ranger Suarez in the last three seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-180 at WSH)
(957) NEW YORK-NL (2-5) at (958) CINCINNATI (4-3)
Trend: Luis Severino is 9-2 (+6.40 units) in April/May in the last two years
System Match: PLAY NY METS (+102 at CIN)
Trend: Luis Severino is 4-11 (-5.85 units) as an underdog in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE NY METS (+102 at CIN)
(963) OAKLAND (1-7) at (964) DETROIT (6-1)
Trend: Kenta Maeda has been bad during the day, going 8-19 (-17.36 units) since 2020
System Match: FADE DETROIT (-166 vs OAK)
(965) CLEVELAND (6-2) at (966) MINNESOTA (3-3)
Trend: Minnesota is 9-1 (+8.08 units) in the last two years in starter Joe Ryan’s first five starts of the season (1-0, +1.00 unit this season)
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-162 vs CLE)
(967) TORONTO (4-4) at (968) NEW YORK-AL (6-2)
Trend: Toronto was 2-7 (-10.74 units) vs AL East foes last season with Kevin Gausman (1-0, +1.00 unit this season)
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-105 at NYY)
Trend: Kevin Gausman is just 1-6 (-4.95 units) as an underdog in road night games since 2019
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-105 at NYY)
Trend: NYY is 4-10 (-6.93 units) vs AL East teams with starter Clarke Schmidt in career
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-115 vs TOR)
(969) HOUSTON (2-6) at (970) TEXAS (5-2)
Trend: Jon Gray is 1-5 (-4.80 units) vs Houston in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE TEXAS (-110 vs HOU)
(975) BALTIMORE (5-2) at (976) PITTSBURGH (6-2)
Trend: Baltimore is 0-7 (-7.00 units) all-time against teams with a 62.5% or higher win percentage with starter Tyler Wells
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE (-135 at PIT)
(977) SEATTLE (3-5) at (978) MILWAUKEE (5-1)
Trend: Seattle was 5-12 (-7.67 units) vs teams with a winning record with starter Bryce Miller last season
System Match: FADE SEATTLE (+102 at MIL)
Top Head-To-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #19: Toronto at NY Yankees, Fri 4/5-Sun 4/7, Fri 8/2-Sun 8/4
Trend: Favorites are just 15-29 (34.1%, -26.28 units) in the L44 games between Toronto & NY Yankees
– The R.O.I. on this trend is -59.7%
System Matches: FADE NY YANKEES (-115 vs. TOR)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM PLAYS TODAY
