Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, March 28, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
Top MLB Resources:
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches: NONE TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution as to getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches: NONE TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors were on huge home favorites last season, they were equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group went 59-40 (59.6%) last season for -38.89 units and an ROI of -39.3%. Anyone losing at this rate will drain their bankroll quickly.
System Matches: NONE TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Match: FADE TEXAS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in LAA-BAL, TOR-TB, BOS-SEA / PLAY UNDER in SF-SD, PIT-MIA, DET-CWS, CLE-OAK
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: NONE TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023 were 101-65 (60.8%) for +15.3 units and ROI of +9.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES, PITTSBURGH, CLEVELAND, BOSTON
DK MLB Betting Splits system #11: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this “super” majority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE RL, LA DODGERS RL, ARIZONA RL
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trends are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams that are not favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the last regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment.
System Matches: BALTIMORE, TAMPA BAY, DETROIT, MINNESOTA, CLEVELAND, SEATTLE, CHICAGO CUBS, MIAMI, CINCINNATI, HOUSTON, SAN FRANCISCO
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games last regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. This represented an R.O.I. of -30.5%! These are, in essence, the definition of overpriced favorites: teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two.
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA, FADE LA DODGERS
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system last season arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The R.O.I. of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%.
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS, SAN FRANCISCO
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game.
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1435-1339 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -170.07 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE SAN DIEGO, FADE LA DODGERS
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing.
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2518 (53.5%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -358.8 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE SAN DIEGO, FADE LA DODGERS
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 241-199 (54.8%) for +39.79 units and an R.O.I. of 9% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches: PLAY SAN DIEGO, PLAY LA DODGERS
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO STREAK PLAYS YET
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: 1. ST LOUIS +190 (+40 diff), 2. CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+29 diff), 3. COLORADO +185 (+27 diff), 4. NY YANKEES +130 (+19 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: 1. BALTIMORE -175 (+19 diff), 2. MINNESOTA -125 (+15 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHI-TEX OVER 8 (+0.7 diff), LAA-BAL OVER 7.5 (+0.5 diff), DET-CWS OVER 7.5 (+0.5 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WSH-CIN UNDER 9 (-0.7 diff)
MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(915) LA ANGELS (0-0) at (916) BALTIMORE (0-0)
Trend: LAA is 3-13 (-13.05 units) in the last 16 day game starts by Patrick Sandoval (including 1-8 (-6.70 units) in the last nine starts as a day game underdog)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+145 at BAL)
(907) PITTSBURGH (0-0) at (908) MIAMI (0-0)
Trend: Pittsburgh is 6-15 (-8.27 units) vs NL East teams with starter Mitch Keller in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (+110 at MIA)
(909) SAN FRANCISCO (0-0) at (910) SAN DIEGO (1-1)
Trend: Logan Webb is 0-4 (-4.25 units) on the road vs San Diego in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-108 at SD)
(911) ST LOUIS (0-0) at (912) LA DODGERS (1-1)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow is 26-3 (+19.95 units) as a favorite of -166 or higher in the last five seasons (including 15-1 (+13.30 units) in home starts)
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-230 vs STL)
(917) NY YANKEES (0-0) at (918) HOUSTON (0-0)
Trend: NY Yankees are 7-3 (+5.50 units) as an underdog with starter Nestor Cortes in last three seasons
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (+130 at HOU)
Trend: Houston is 10-3 (+3.05 units) as a home day game favorite of -150 or higher by starter Framber Valdez
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON (-155 vs NYY)
(919) TORONTO (0-0) at (920) TAMPA BAY (0-0)
Trend: Zach Eflin is 11-3 (+6.70 units) vs AL East opponents since 2020
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-135 vs TOR)
(921) MINNESOTA (0-0) at (922) KANSAS CITY (0-0)
Trend: Pablo Lopez is 13-3 (+9.30 units) in the short favorite line range of -118 to -130 in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-125 at KC)
(925) CLEVELAND (0-0) at (926) OAKLAND (0-0)
Trend: Cleveland is 16-4 (+10.10 units) in the middle favorite (-140 to -155 line range) by Shane Bieber
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (*if they fall into this favorite line range, -160 currently)
(913) COLORADO (0-0) at (914) ARIZONA (0-0)
Trend: Colorado was 3-10 (-4.75 units) on the road last year with starter Kyle Freeland
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+185 at ARI)
Trend: Arizona is 11-2 (+10.02 units) in the last 13 home divisional starts by Zac Gallen
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA (-225 vs COL)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
SAN DIEGO
Letdown after series vs. LA DODGERS: 15-15 (50%) -5.65 units, ROI: -18.8%
Next betting opportunity: Thursday 3/28 vs San Francisco
System Matches: FADE SAN DIEGO (-112 vs SF)
