Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, March 30, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
Top MLB Resources:
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different MLB betting trends and systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 AM ET. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY BALTIMORE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH, NY YANKEES
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution as to getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches: NONE TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors were on huge home favorites last season, they were equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group went 59-40 (59.6%) last season for -38.89 units and an ROI of -39.3%. Anyone losing at this rate will drain their bankroll quickly.
System Matches: NONE TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches: FADE TEXAS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in CLE-OAK, PLAY OVER in SF-SD, PLAY OVER in BOS-SEA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: PLAY NY METS, PLAY MIAMI, PLAY HOUSTON
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023 were 101-65 (60.8%) for +15.3 units and ROI of +9.2%.
System Matches: PLAY DETROIT, PLAY ATLANTA, PLAY CLEVELAND, PLAY MINNESOTA, PLAY NY YANKEES
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return, but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and, if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE RL, CLEVELAND RL, CINCINNATI RL, ARIZONA RL, LA DODGERS RL
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams that are not favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the last regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment
System Matches: MILWAUKEE, ATLANTA, MIAMI, CINCINNATI, SAN FRANCISCO, ARIZONA, DETROIT, BALTIMORE, CLEVELAND, MINNESOTA, TAMPA BAY, HOUSTON, SEATTLE, CHICAGO CUBS
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A mid-2023 season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this angle fell in the last couple of weeks as some of the big favorites no longer had any playoff stakes on the line but still settled at +4.4%. So far for the 2024 season, they are 3-0 for +3.00 units.
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-225 vs STL)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle was 5-3 in the final week and again lost –2.4 units. This situation was rare, only coming up about 25 times per month, but should have been taken advantage of when it arose. The R.O.I. on this amazing angle for the season steadied at an amazing -56.6%! By fading these teams, a season-long backer of this system would have netted about +70 units of profit!
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS (-225 vs STL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system last season arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The R.O.I. of this angle produced a healthy 10.4%. So far, for the 2024 season, they are 2-1 for +1.20 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+105 at NYM), SAN FRANCISCO (+110 at SD), CHICAGO CUBS (+105 at TEX)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 241-249 for -27.51 units, an R.O.I. of -5.6% (this 2024 season, they are 0-1 for -1.42 units). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game-winning streaks finished last regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The R.O.I. on that system finished at -7.6%.
System Matches (2-games): FADE NY YANKEES (+114 at HOU), FADE PITTSBURGH (-105 at MIA)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game.
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1438-1339 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -167.07 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE (-162 vs LAA), FADE ATLANTA (-135 at PHI)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing.
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1685 (43.2%) for -177.16 units and an R.O.I. of -6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE WASHINGTON (+142 at CIN), FADE DETROIT (-135 at CWS), FADE BOSTON (+130 at SEA), FADE TORONTO (+102 at TB)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing.
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2902-2520 (53.5%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE TAMPA BAY (-122 vs. TOR), FADE ARIZONA (-185 vs. COL), FADE LA DODGERS (-225 vs. STL), FADE BALTIMORE (-162 vs. LAA)
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long.
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 814-695 (53.9%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +25.16 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 1.7%.
System Matches: PLAY SEATTLE (-155 vs BOS), PLAY NY METS (-125 vs MIL), PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+114 vs DET)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit.
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 412-343 (54.6%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +26.52 units, for a R.O.I. of 3.5%.
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+114 vs DET)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 276-130 (68%) for +50.16 units and an R.O.I. of 12.4%!
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-225 vs STL)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS YET
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA +114 (+16 diff), ST LOUIS +185 (+33 diff), NY YANKEES +114 (+15 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLEVELAND -135 (+15 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIL-NYM OVER 7.5 (+0.9), SF-SD OVER 7.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WSH-CIN UNDER 10 (-0.9), DET-CWS UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)
MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(903) ATLANTA (1-0) at (904) PHILADELPHIA (0-1)
Trend: Atlanta was 9-0 (+9.0 units) in road game starts by Max Fried last season
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-135 at PHI)
Trend: 9-19 (-8.80 units) as an underdog with Aaron Nola in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (+114 vs ATL)
(911) COLORADO (0-2) at (912) ARIZONA (2-0)
Trend: Colorado is 5-1 (+4.55 units) vs Arizona with starter Austin Gomber the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY COLORADO (+145 at AZ)
(913) ST LOUIS (0-2) at (914) LOS ANGELES-NL (3-1)
Trend: Lance Lynn is 7-20 (-12.30 units) on the road at night as a -120 favorite or worse (including underdog) in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS (+185 at LAD)
(915) DETROIT (1-0) at (916) CHICAGO-AL (0-1)
Trend: Kenta Maeda is pretty good 9-2 (+6.30 units) as a short favorite in the -120 to -145 line range since 2020
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-135 at CWS)
Trend: Kenta Maeda has been bad during the day however, going 7-19 (-18.36 units) since 2020
System Match: FADE DETROIT (-135 at CWS)
Trend: Mike Soroka is just 2-7 (-5.65 units) in the -120 to +115 line range
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+114 vs DET)
(917) LOS ANGELES-AL (0-1) at (918) BALTIMORE (1-0)
Trend: Baltimore is 10-1 (+8.95 units) with starter Grayson Rodriguez against below .500 teams
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-162 vs LAA)
(919) CLEVELAND (2-0) at (920) OAKLAND (0-2)
Trend: Cleveland was 9-2 (+7.15 units) in the -135 to +110 line range by starter Tanner Bibee last year
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-135 at OAK)
Trend: Oakland is 3-12 (-7.45 units) in day game starts by JP Sears in the last two years
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+114 vs CLE)
(921) MINNESOTA (1-0) at (922) KANSAS CITY (0-1)
Trend: Minnesota is 9-1 (+8.08 units) in the last two years in starter Joe Ryan’s first five starts of the season
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-125 at KC)
Trend: Minnesota is 14-2 (+10.00 units) vs. teams with a winning pct of <42% with starter Joe Ryan since 2021
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-125 at KC)
(923) TORONTO (1-1) at (924) TAMPA BAY (1-1)
Trend: Yusei Kikuchi is 6-2 (+4.05 units) vs. Tampa Bay in career
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (+102 at TB)
Trend: Yusei Kikuchi is 14-5 (+14.34 units) as a day game underdog of +105 or more in career
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (*if they become a +105 underdog or more, +102 currently*)
(925) NEW YORK-AL (2-0) at (926) HOUSTON (0-2)
Trend: Houston is 1-4 (-3.90 units) as a short favorite (-115 to -130 line range) with starter Hunter Brown
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (*if they become a favorite in this line range, -135 currently*)
(929) CHICAGO-NL (0-1) at (930) TEXAS (1-0)
Trend: Kyle Hendricks not good in the short underdog role, +100 to +128 range, 3-10 (-6.75 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO CUBS (+105 at TEX)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM PLAYS TODAY
