VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Friday, August 25
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Friday, August 25, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS, PHILADELPHIA, MILWAUKEE, CINCINNATI, ATLANTA, NY YANKEES, HOUSTON, TORONTO, MINNESOTA, SEATTLE, BALTIMORE, LA DODGERS, NY METS
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games this season through Thursday, August 24, in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team now owns a 122-87 record, but for -85.50 units. This is an R.O.I. of -40.9%! These are in essence the definition of overpriced favorites, teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two.
System Matches: FADE MIAMI, FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
My most recent bullpen ratings discovery has found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent are 113-41 for +27.45 units as of Thursday, August 24. This comes after a 6-0 performance last week. In analyzing my own strategies for wagering games, I kept realizing that I was rarely backing teams like Atlanta, Los Angeles, etc., and not fading teams like Oakland, Kansas City, etc., enough. As it turns out, some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this newfound discovery angle for the season is +17.8%!
System Match: BALTIMORE
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle
– When combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s been an opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team is less than 20, these big favorites have gone just 55-56 for -70.02 units! However, this angle was 5-1 last week and won 3.1 units, a rare winning week. This situation is rare but should be taken advantage of when it arises. The R.O.I. on this amazing angle for the season has steadied and is now at -63.1%!
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ’em). After a 6-3 performance the last couple of days, moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 282-287 for +62.94 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 11.1%!
System Matches: CINCINNATI, NY YANKEES
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
After an 11-10 (+2.97 units) week, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 193-195 for -34.51 units, an R.O.I. of -8.9%. After a 4-6 result (-0.75 units), worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 74-93 for -20.44 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -12.2%.
System Matches: 2-game – FADE BOSTON
3+ games – FADE ARIZONA, FADE TAMPA BAY
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks, I have not found anything significant on the 2-game data, although these did do OK last week. However, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 190-127 for +22.04 units, an impressive R.O.I. of 7.0%. These better bullpen teams had a negative week though, -3.33 units on a 5-5 performance.
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since 8/14 of when on 2-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 195-148 for +10.44 units. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks had a negative 4-6 week and have now gone 96-63 for +22.53 units. The R.O.I. for the season is at 14.5% after the past seven days.
System Matches: 2-game – NY METS, TORONTO
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1431-1336 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.06 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON AND LA DODGERS WHO PLAY EACH OTHER TONIGHT
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1681 (43.3%) for -172.41 units and an R.O.I. of -5.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE CINCINNATI, FADE HOUSTON
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE MILWAUKEE, FADE SAN FRANCISCO, FADE TAMPA BAY, FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX, FADE MINNESOTA, FADE BALTIMORE, FADE BOSTON
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
HOME FAVORITES coming off a game in which they hit 4 or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 268-124 (68.4%) for +54.30 units and an R.O.I. of 13.9%!
System Match: MINNESOTA
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of 7-games or more are on a 22-66 skid (-28.2 units, ROI -32%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs
System Match: FADE TEXAS
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 13-15 (+6.82 units, ROI: 24.4%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 52-115 (-48.60 units, ROI: -29.1%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match: FADE TEXAS
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been wildly successful in snapping their skids, 65-49 outright (+9.84 units, ROI: 8.6%).
System Match: FADE TEXAS
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 158-75 (+23.42 units, ROI: 10.1%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Match: MILWAUKEE, ARIZONA
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 112-79 (+17.98 units, ROI: 9.4%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 137-85 in their last 222 tries (+25.86 units, ROI: 11.6%).
System Match: MILWAUKEE, ARIZONA
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their 4-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a 4-game winning streak are just 46-46 (-17.3 units, ROI: -18.8%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WASHINGTON (+38), CINCINNATI (+50)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA (+17), MILWAUKEE (+33), ATLANTA (+33), TORONTO (+16), SEATTLE (+53), BALTIMORE (+37)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NY YANKEES-TAMPA BAY OVER 7 (+0.6), LA ANGELS-NY METS OVER 8 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS-PITTSBURGH UNDER 9 (-0.5), ST LOUIS-PHILADELPHIA UNDER 9.5 (-0.5), HOUSTON-DETROIT UNDER 9 (-0.5), CLEVELAND-TORONTO UNDER 8.5 (-0.6), LA DODGERS-BOSTON UNDER 10.5 (-0.5)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) WASHINGTON (59-69) at (952) MIAMI (65-63)
Trend: Washington good bet on the ROAD (30-33, +17.99 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
Trend: Miami dominant against Washington this season (6-0 record)
System Match: MIAMI
Trend: Miami divisional games trending OVER (18-13 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(953) CHICAGO-NL (67-60) at (954) PITTSBURGH (57-71)
Trend: Cubs trending OVER in divisional play (21-12 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Cubs have won L8 against Pittsburgh (7-0 this season)
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER a couple of ways (44-28 O/U at NIGHT, 38-23 O/U at HOME)
System Match: OVER
(955) ST LOUIS (56-72) at (956) PHILADELPHIA (69-58)
Trend: St Louis slight UNDER on the ROAD (27-33 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: St Louis bad at NIGHT (31-52, -32.64 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
Trend: Philadelphia not great bet at NIGHT (38-38, -12.79 units)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
(957) SAN DIEGO (61-67) at (958) MILWAUKEE (70-57)
Trend: San Diego trending UNDER a couple of ways (23-31 O/U on the ROAD, 32-44 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: San Diego not great against RH starters (38-49, -31.89 units)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
Trend: San Diego not as good against NL East/Central (23-29, -19.05 units)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
Trend: Milwaukee good against RH starters (53-37, +12.87 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee bad against NL East/West (20-28, -9.00 units)
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE
(959) CINCINNATI (67-62) at (960) ARIZONA (67-61)
Trend: Cincinnati decent against NL East/West (29-26, +5.98 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati better and score more at NIGHT (43-34 record, 41-35 O/U)
System Match: CINCINNATI, OVER
Trend: Arizona good at NIGHT (44-36, +9.86 units)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Arizona trending UNDER at HOME (23-36 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(961) ATLANTA (82-44) at (962) SAN FRANCISCO (66-61)
Trend: Atlanta dominant against NL teams (56-24, +15.27 units)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER multiple ways (23-29 O/U against NL Central/East, 28-42 O/U at NIGHT, 23-38 O/U at HOME)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: San Francisco good at HOME (35-28 record)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
(963) NEW YORK-AL (61-66) at (964) TAMPA BAY (78-51)
Trend: NYY bad at NIGHT (34-47, -20.57 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
Trend: Tampa Bay good at HOME (43-22, +7.35 units)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Trend: Tampa Bay trending OVER at HOME (39-25 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(965) HOUSTON (72-57) at (966) DETROIT (58-69)
Trend: Houston better on the ROAD (37-26, +8.01 units)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Detroit interesting splits vs LH starters (19-9 O/U and 11-19 record)
System Match: FADE DETROIT, PLAY OVER
Trend: Detroit trending OVER in NIGHT games (36-27 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(967) CLEVELAND (60-68) at (968) TORONTO (70-58)
Trend: Cleveland trending UNDER against RH starters (32-49 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Toronto good against AL Central/West (32-19, +4.13 units)
System Match: TORONTO
Trend: Toronto trending UNDER multiple ways (24-47 O/U at NIGHT, 20-35 O/U at HOME, 16-33 O/U against AL Central/West)
System Match: UNDER
(969) OAKLAND (37-91) at (970) CHICAGO-AL (50-78)
Trend: Oakland trending OVER multiple ways (33-14 O/U against AL Central/East, 36-23 O/U on the ROAD, 39-32 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Oakland okay bet at NIGHT (28-48, -2.97 units)
System Match: OAKLAND
Trend: Chicago trends OVER as ML favorite (28-16-2 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Chicago is bad against AL East/West (18-37, -19.21 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
(971) TEXAS (72-55) at (972) MINNESOTA (66-62)
Trend: Texas trending UNDER on the ROAD (26-34 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Texas has been bad recently (0-7 L7 games)
System Match: FADE TEXAS
Trend: Minnesota not great bet as ML favorite (53-41, -10.68 units)
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA
(973) KANSAS CITY (41-88) at (974) SEATTLE (71-56)
Trend: Kansas City bad at NIGHT (22-57, -26.22 units)
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY
Trend: Kansas City good with RHP Brady Singer on the mound (W4 of last 5)
System Match: KANSAS CITY
Trend: Seattle trending OVER in NIGHT games (46-36 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Seattle trending OVER against AL Central/East (34-21 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(975) COLORADO (48-79) at (976) BALTIMORE (79-48)
Trend: Colorado decent against LH starters (18-22, +3.85 units)
System Match: COLORADO
Trend: Baltimore slightly worse against NL teams (19-16, +2.67 units)
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE
Trend: Baltimore good at HOME and at NIGHT (38-24, +8.02 units / 48-31, +16.14 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
(977) LOS ANGELES-NL (78-48) at (978) BOSTON (68-60)
Trend: LAD good against RH starters (57-30, +13.80 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD good at NIGHT (59-29, +14.50 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD trending OVER in interleague games (26-8 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Boston not as good against NL teams (19-24, -9.70 units)
System Match: FADE BOSTON
(979) LOS ANGELES-AL (61-67) at (980) NEW YORK-NL (59-69)
Trend: LAA slight UNDER against NL teams (17-21 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: LAA not as good against NL teams (16-24, -14.71 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS
Trend: NYM bad against LH starters (13-27, -23.43 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: NYM trending UNDER at HOME (20-36 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second half series’ with notable head-to-head trends.
NO QUALIFYING HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one Monday 8/28)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
ATLANTA
LETDOWN after series vs. NY METS: 11-16 (40.7%) -8.72 units, ROI: -32.3%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 8/25 at San Francisco
System Match: FADE ATLANTA
BALTIMORE
LETDOWN after series vs. TORONTO: 6-18 (25.0%) -10.6 units, ROI: -44.2%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 8/25 vs. Colorado
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE
