VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Monday, October 30
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Monday, October 30, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment (System Matches): ARIZONA
NO OTHER QUALIFYING BULLPEN SYSTEMS TODAY
Trends and Systems for the MLB Postseason
The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously. As such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Line Angles
ROAD FAVORITES are on a 6-15 SU skid (-13.12 units, ROI: -62.5%)
System Match: FADE TEXAS (only if they become a favorite, -110 each side as of 11:00 AM ET)
Series wins status
HOME FIELD has proven advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 76-59 SU (-4.47 units, ROI: -3.3%) and 70-65 on run lines (15.08 units, ROI: 11.2%) since 2015.
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA
Stats from last game trends
Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 40-51 SU (-30.49 units, ROI: -33.5%) and 28-63 on run lines (-26.40 units, ROI: -29%) since 2012.
System Match: FADE TEXAS (if they become a favorite)
MLB postseason teams coming off a same-series game in which they scored eight or more runs are on a 24-26 SU (-4.92 units, ROI: -9.8%) and 22-28 on run lines (-8.62 units, ROI: -17.2%) skid since ’19.
System Match: FADE ARIZONA
Trends based upon regular season records
In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 41-31 SU (18.13 units, ROI: 25.2%) and 47-25 on run lines (15.60 units, ROI: 21.7%) in playoff games.
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA
Totals angles
The last two MLB postseasons have been amazing for OVER bettors, as although the outright record on totals is split 37-37, OVERS have produced a return of +21.4 units, an ROI of 28.9%. Total vigs have been heavily shaded towards UNDERS. In particular, games with totals set at 7.5 or higher have gone OVER at a 25-18 rate, +15.5 units for an ROI of 36.0%.
Nine top MLB World Series Betting Systems
Over the last 20+ years of World Series action, several nice betting systems have emerged. You know you’re going to bet the games, so why not arm yourself with key data that has won recently.
WORLD SERIES system #1:
Home field advantage hasn’t meant a lot in recent World Series action, with hosts on a 16-24 slide in the last 40 opportunities dating back to 2016 (-15.33 Units, -38.3% R.O.I.)
Analysis: Home-field advantage was a much bigger deal in earlier rounds of the playoffs, particularly the divisional round, so be careful not to over-value this factor when it comes to the World Series, as the best teams in the league know how to win on the road as well. Obviously, these numbers don’t include the 2020 series, which was played in a neutral environment.
System Match: FADE ARIZONA
WORLD SERIES system #3:
Strangely, the most profitable HOME TEAMS in the WORLD SERIES recently have been those in the -110 to -125 range, or the very short favorites, as those teams are on an 18-10 run since 2000 (+6.07 Units, 21.7% R.O.I.)
Analysis: It seems that home-field advantage has been the deciding factor in games that are expected to be tight.
System Match: if either team becomes this short favorite (-110 each side as of 11:00 AM ET)
WORLD SERIES system #4:
Overall, on totals, there has been a very slight lean to the OVER in WORLD SERIES games over the last 14 years. However, in games with totals of eight or higher, UNDER holds an edge of 16-12 in that span (+2.05 Units, 7.3% R.O.I.)
Analysis: Typically, pitching, especially deep in games, takes center stage in the World Series. Both of these teams have solid bullpens to bolster above-average starting rotations. For as well as the teams’ lineups might hit, both on paper and in playoff action to date, higher totaled World Series games have leaned UNDER of late.
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
WORLD SERIES system #5:
WORLD SERIES teams have struggled to put back-to-back wins together recently, going 6-20 in the game following up a WS win (-18.63 Units, -71.7% R.O.I.)
Analysis: There has been a lot of back-and-forth in the World Series recently, and teams that can string wins together wind up having a huge advantage in the series.
System Match: FADE ARIZONA
WORLD SERIES system #8:
Incredibly, since the start of the 2014 WS, TEAMS that scored two or fewer runs in the prior game are on an incredible 22-8 surge. (+16.45 Units, 54.8% R.O.I.)
Analysis: These teams that didn’t score well in the prior outing would tend to be the least attractive wagers in the betting public’s eyes. However, they have proven to be quality teams highly capable of bouncing back. In fact, they have averaged 5.0 RPG in the follow-up game.
System Match: PLAY TEXAS
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1434-1339 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -171.07 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE TEXAS
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TEXAS -110 (+24 difference)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(945) TEXAS (!00-76) at (946) ARIZONA (94-82)
Trend: Texas trending OVER at NIGHT (60-46 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Texas RHP Max Scherzer good against Arizona lately (18 IP, 9 HA, 4 ER in the last three starts against Diamondbacks)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Arizona heavy UNDER at HOME (33-47 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Arizona good with RHP Brandon Pfaadt starting games this postseason (4-0 record)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Arizona good at NIGHT (61-51, +13.22 units)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Arizona trending UNDER vs. AL teams (18-28 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Arizona is leading season series (4-2, including 4-1 in the last five games)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Texas is 0-2 in WS appearances while Arizona is 1-0
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO MORE QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS THIS SEASON
