VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Sunday, August 6
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Sunday, August 6, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher:
System Matches: CINCINNATI, LA DODGERS, CLEVELAND, NY YANKEES, TORONTO, SEATTLE, BALTIMORE, MINNESOTA, TEXAS
AVOID/FADE all better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher
Now, in games this season through Sunday 7/30 in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher, that team now owns a 184-104 record, but for -55.74 units.
System Matches: FADE MILWAUKEE, FADE ST LOUIS, FADE TAMPA BAY, FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE SAN FRANCISCO
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle
When the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team is less than 20, these big favorites have gone just 41-47 for -65.86 units! Even though the R.O.I. on this system is shrinking steadily, for the season it remains at -74.8%!
System Matches: FADE ST LOUIS, FADE TAMPA BAY, FADE PHILADELPHIA
Better bullpen underdog teams have been strong out of the second-half gate
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). After a mediocre 12-15 (-1.26 units) performance over the last week, moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 245-251 for +53.21 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 10.7%!
System Match: TORONTO, SEATTLE, MINNESOTA
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
After a 6-9 (-1.93 units) week, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 170-166 for -33.52 units, an R.O.I. of -10%. After a 3-4 result (-1.14 units), worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 63-80 for -21.25 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -14.9%.
System Match: 3-game – FADE WASHINGTON
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
When looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 163-103 for +31.21 units, an impressive R.O.I. of 11.7%.
System Matches: SEATTLE, BALTIMORE, MINNESOTA, TEXAS
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since July 24, when on 2-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 166-127 for +11.2 units. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 80-52 for +22.19 units. The R.O.I. on this system remains 16.8% but it was over 50% just a few weeks ago. We’ll continue to track this hoping it turns back around soon.
System Match: 3-game – CINCINNATI
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1427-1334 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.88 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE TEXAS, FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE MINNESOTA
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1675 (43.4%) for -165.79 units and an R.O.I. of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON, FADE TAMPA BAY, FADE SAN FRANCISCO, FADE PITTSBURGH, FADE COLORADO, FADE ARIZONA
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO CUBS, FADE TEXAS, FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE BALTIMORE, FADE ST LOUIS, FADE MINNESOTA, FADE SAN DIEGO
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 783-654 (54.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +42.54 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 3.0%.
System Match: CINCINNATI
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been wildly successful in snapping their skids, 61-44 outright (+12.45 units, ROI: 11.9%).
System Match: ARIZONA
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 119-96 run (+48.10 units, ROI: 22.4%).
System Match: ARIZONA
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a 4-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 86-82 (+20.58 units, ROI: 12.25%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match: CINCINNATI
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 149-72 (+19.9 units, ROI 9.0%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Match: TEXAS
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PITTSBURGH (20), SAN DIEGO (22), SEATTLE (52), MINNESOTA (25)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WASHINGTON-CINCINNATI UNDER 11 (-0.87), TORONTO-BOSTON UNDER 10 (-0.78), KANSAS CITY-PHILADELPHIA UNDER 9.5 (-0.55)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.>>See situational records by team.
(901) WASHINGTON (48-63) at (902) CINCINNATI (59-54)
Trend: Washington better bet on the ROAD (26-29, +15.00 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington better bet during DAY (24-24, +12.50 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
Trend: Cincinnati good against NL East/West (28-22, +11.00 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati good as ML favorite (22-14, +4.15 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati trending UNDER during DAY (20-27 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(903) PITTSBURGH (49-61) at (904) MILWAUKEE (60-52)
Trend: Pittsburgh trending UNDER in DAY games (20-24 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Milwaukee better against RH starters (44-34, +7.30 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee good against NL Central (24-11, +11.35 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
(905) COLORADO (43-67) at (906) ST LOUIS (49-63)
Trend: Colorado better against LH starters (16-19, +3.45 units)
System Match: COLORADO
Trend: Colorado not good against NL competition (30-49, -8.60 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Trend: St Louis better during the DAY (23-19, -1.60 units)
System Match: ST LOUIS
Trend: St Louis OVER in HOME games (31-23 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(907) ATLANTA (70-38) at (908) CHICAGO-NL (57-54)
Trend: Atlanta good for bettors on the ROAD (33-18, +6.35 units)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta dominant against NL competition (47-18, +19.00 units)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Chicago not as good against RH starters (37-38, -3.25 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO CUBS
Trend: Chicago playing well recently (12-3 record, 7.1 RPG in L15)
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS
(909) LOS ANGELES-NL (63-46) at (910) SAN DIEGO (55-56)
Trend: LAD better in NIGHT games (49-27, +7.90 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD not as good against LH starters (15-18, -14.60 units)
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD not often a ML underdog (8-7, +2.60 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
(911) CHICAGO-AL (44-68) at (912) CLEVELAND (54-57)
Trend: Cleveland UNDER in division games (9-26 O/U!)
System Match: UNDER
(913) HOUSTON (63-49) at (914) NEW YORK-AL (58-53)
Trend: Houston good on the ROAD (32-24, +5.48 units)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: NYY good during the DAY (27-13, +11.90 units)
System Match: NY YANKEES
(915) TORONTO (62-50) at (916) BOSTON (57-53)
Trend: Toronto bad in divisional games (10-23, -22.49 units)
System Match: FADE TORONTO
(917) TAMPA BAY (67-46) at (918) DETROIT (49-61)
Trend: Tampa Bay trending UNDER in ROAD games (22-30 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Tampa Bay good against Detroit recently (9-2 in L11 games)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Trend: Detroit trending UNDER in DAY games (23-28 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(919) SEATTLE (59-52) at (920) LOS ANGELES-AL (56-56)
Trend: Seattle better against AL West (18-11, +4.75 units)
System Match: SEATTLE
Trend: Seattle UNDER in DAY games (16-22 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: LAA good against RH starters (45-38, +4.75 units)
System Match: LA ANGELS
Trend: LAA OVER in divisional games (19-10 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(921) KANSAS CITY (36-76) at (922) PHILADELPHIA (60-51)
Trend: Kansas City better bet during the DAY (17-27, -2.60 units)
System Match: KANSAS CITY
Trend: Kansas City playing well lately (7-2, +8.15 units in L9 games)
System Match: KANSAS CITY
Trend: Philadelphia good during the DAY (28-18, +5.25 units)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia good against AL teams (23-14, +6.35 units)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia trending UNDER in AL games (14-22 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(923) NEW YORK-NL (50-60) at (924) BALTIMORE (69-42)
Trend: NYM bad as ML underdog (8-24, -15.60 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: NYM trending OVER on the ROAD (31-27 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(925) ARIZONA (57-55) at (926) MINNESOTA (58-54)
Trend: Arizona not as good during the DAY (20-24, -6.00 units)
System Match: FADE ARIZONA
Trend: Minnesota not as good vs NL teams (14-14, -5.20 units)
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA
(927) MIAMI (58-54) at (928) TEXAS (65-46)
Trend: Miami better against AL competition (23-14, +11.80)
System Match: MIAMI
Trend: Miami not as good as ML underdog (18-31, -6.65 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI
Trend: Texas good during the DAY (29-16, +7.75 units)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas OVER in HOME games (33-22 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Texas OVER in interleague games (20-14 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(929) SAN FRANCISCO (61-50) at (930) OAKLAND (31-80)
Trend: San Francisco not as good during the DAY (24-26, -8.15 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: Oakland bad in DAY games (7-40, -29.00 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled 20 MLB second half series with notable head-to-head trends.
Series #3: Houston at NY Yankees, Thu 8/3-Sun 8/6
Trend: NY YANKEES are 2-8 (20%, -6.80 units) in their last 10 games vs. Houston
The R.O.I. on this trend is -68%
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
Series #5: Washington at Cincinnati, Fri 8/4-Sun 8/6
Trend: HOME TEAMS are 1-11 (8.3%, -14.00 units) in the last 12 games between Washington & Cincinnati
The R.O.I. on this trend is -116.7%
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI
Series #6: Chi White Sox at Cleveland, Fri 8/4-Sun 8/6
Trend: UNDER the total is 12-3 (80%, +8.8 units) in the last 15 games between the White Sox & Guardians in Cleveland
The R.O.I. on this trend is 58.7%
System Match: UNDER
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one Tuesday 8/8)
