VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Tuesday, October 3
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Tuesday, October 3, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment
(System Matches): TAMPA BAY, PHILADELPHIA, MINNESOTA, MILWAUKEE
* Many of the bullpen systems didn’t qualify today (check back tomorrow)
Trends and Systems for the MLB Postseason
The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed.
With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs profitable.
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Series wins status
HOME FIELD has proven advantageous in series’ that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 70-48 SU (6.25 units, ROI: 5.3%) and 64-54 on run lines (19.45 units, ROI: 16.5%) since 2015.
System Matches: TAMPA BAY, PHILADELPHIA, MINNESOTA, MILWAUKEE
Stats from last game trends
Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 38-40 SU (-18.05 units, ROI: -23.1%) and 27-51 on run lines (-14.55 units, ROI: -18.7%) since 2012.
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA
Trends based upon regular season records
In the last 94 MLB playoff games matching teams with 7+ regular season win differential between them, the supposed better team is just 46-48 SU (-19.3 units, ROI: -20.5%) since 2019.
System Matches: FADE TAMPA BAY, FADE MILWAUKEE
In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 28-20 SU (13.2 units, ROI: 27.5%) and 33-15 on run lines (14.8 units, ROI: 30.8%) in playoff games.
System Matches: TORONTO, MINNESOTA, ARIZONA, MIAMI
Totals angles
The last two MLB postseasons have been amazing for OVER bettors, as although the outright record on totals is split 37-37, OVER’s have produced a return of +21.4 units, an ROI of 28.9%. Total vigs have been heavily shaded towards UNDERS. In particular, games with totals set at 7.5 or higher have gone OVER at a 25-18 rate, +15.5 units for an ROI of 36.0%.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in all 4 games
Wild Card Round Angles
