VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Wednesday, November 1
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, November 1, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment (System Matches): ARIZONA
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system this season arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The R.O.I. of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%.
System Matches: ARIZONA
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an R.O.I. of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The R.O.I. on that system finished at -7.6%.
System Matches: FADE TEXAS
Trends and Systems for the MLB Postseason
The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously. As such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Coming off wins/losses
HOME TEAMS coming off a LOSS in a series game have been good bounce-back options on the run line, going 17-19 SU (-6.75 units, ROI: -18.8%) but 19-17 on run lines (4.00 units, ROI: 11.1%) in their L36 tries.
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA on run line
Series wins status
HOME FIELD has not meant nearly as much to teams trailing in a series and are favored at home, as they are just 34-38 SU (-22.45 units, ROI: -31.2%) since 2013.
System Match: FADE ARIZONA
Stats from last game trends
MLB postseason teams coming off a same-series game in which they scored eight or more run are on a 24-27 SU (-5.97 units, ROI: -11.7%) and 22-29 on run lines (-10.24 units, ROI: -20.1%) skid since 2019.
System Match: FADE TEXAS
Trends based upon regular season records
In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 41-33 SU (15.90 units, ROI: 21.5%) and 47-27 on run lines (12.13 units, ROI: 16.4%) in playoff games.
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA
Totals angles
The last two MLB postseasons have been amazing for OVER bettors, as although the outright record on totals is split 37-37, OVERS have produced a return of +21.4 units, an ROI of 28.9%. Total vigs have been heavily shaded towards UNDERS. In particular, games with totals set at 7.5 or higher have gone OVER at a 25-18 rate, +15.5 units for an ROI of 36.0%.
Nine Top MLB World Series Betting Systems
Over the last 20+ years of World Series action, several nice betting systems have emerged. You know you’re going to bet the games, so why not arm yourself with key data that has won recently?
WORLD SERIES system #1:
Home field advantage hasn’t meant a lot in recent World Series action, with hosts on a 16-26 slide in the last 42 opportunities dating back to 2016 (-17.56 Units, -41.8% R.O.I.)
Analysis: Home-field advantage was a much bigger deal in earlier rounds of the playoffs, particularly the divisional round, so be careful not to over-value this factor when it comes to the World Series, as the best teams in the league know how to win on the road as well. Obviously, these numbers don’t include the 2020 series, which was played in a neutral environment.
System Match: FADE ARIZONA
WORLD SERIES system #3:
Strangely, the most profitable HOME TEAMS in the WORLD SERIES recently have been those in the -110 to -125 range, or the very short favorites, as those teams are on a 18-11 run since 2000 (+4.89 Units, 16.9% R.O.I.)
Analysis: It seems that home-field advantage has been the deciding factor in games that are expected to be tight.
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA -110
WORLD SERIES system #4:
Overall, on totals, there has been a very slight lean to the OVER in WORLD SERIES games over the last 14 years; however, in games with totals of eight or higher, UNDER holds an edge of 17-13 in that span (+1.85 Units, 6.2% R.O.I.)
Analysis: Typically, pitching, especially deep in games, takes center stage in the World Series. Both of these teams have solid bullpens to bolster above-average starting rotations. For as well as the teams’ lineups might hit, both on paper and in playoff action to date, higher totaled World Series games have leaned UNDER of late.
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
WORLD SERIES system #5:
WORLD SERIES teams have struggled to put back-to-back wins together recently, going 7-21 in the game following up a WS win (-18.68 Units, -66.7% R.O.I.)
Analysis: There has been a lot of back-and-forth in the World Series recently, and teams that are able to string wins together wind up having a huge advantage in the series.
System Match: FADE TEXAS
WORLD SERIES system #9:
Washington’s improbable Game 7 win in the 2019 WORLD SERIES snapped a streak of nine straight ROAD UNDERDOGS losing after hitting three or more home runs in the prior WS game (-7.7 Units, 77% R.O.I.)
Analysis: This is a strange one when you consider that power surges can be big momentum builders in other postseason or regular season stretches. Perhaps the Nationals’ big win will also mark a key turning point for this system.
System Match: FADE TEXAS (only if they become an underdog)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1434-1339 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -171.07 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE TEXAS
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO MORE QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS THIS SEASON
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TEXAS -110 (+5 difference)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.1 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TEXAS-ARIZONA UNDER 8.5 (-0.1 difference)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(955) TEXAS (102-76) at (956) ARIZONA (94-84)
Trend: Texas trending OVER at NIGHT (61-47 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Texas profitable on the ROAD (50-41, +3.62 units)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas good following up a win (63-38 record in next game)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas dominant with RHP Nathan Eovaldi this postseason (5-0 in games where he has started)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas seeking first World Series (could clinch tonight)
Trend: Arizona heavy UNDER at HOME (34-48 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Arizona hasn’t been as good as usual with RHP Zac Gallen lately (27.1 IP, 28 H, 5.27 ERA in postseason)
System Match: FADE ARIZONA
Trend: Arizona good at NIGHT (61-53, +10.99 units)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Arizona trending UNDER vs AL teams (19-29 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Texas is 0-2 in WS appearances while Arizona is 1-0
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO MORE QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS THIS SEASON
