VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Wednesday, September 13
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Wednesday, September 13, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage 19% or higher (System Matches): CHICAGO CUBS, PITTSBURGH, ATLANTA, ARIZONA, MILWAUKEE, LA DODGERS, TAMPA BAY, TORONTO, HOUSTON, NY YANKEES, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, SAN FRANCISCO, BALTIMORE, CINCINNATI
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games this season through Monday, September 11, in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team now owns a 145-98 record, but for -89.41 units. This is an R.O.I. of -36.8%! These are in essence the definition of overpriced favorites, teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two.
System Match: FADE SEATTLE
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
My most recent bullpen ratings discovery has found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent are now 133-48 for +29.99 units as of Tuesday 9/12. This comes after a 7-3 performance last week. As it turns out, some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this angle for the season is +16.6%! Since my introduction of this system four weeks ago, the results are 29-7 for +11.34 units.
System Match: HOUSTON
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s been an opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen-rated bullpen team is less than 20, these big favorites have gone just 67-64 for -76.19 units! This angle was 5-4 last week and again lost –3.8 units. This situation is rare but should be taken advantage of when it arises. The R.O.I. on this amazing angle for the season has steadied and is now at -58.2%! For those wondering the opposite side of how this fares in fading the teams, it’s approximately +60 units.
System Match: FADE HOUSTON
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 311-314 for +69.4 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 11.1%!
System Matches: NY YANKEES, CINCINNATI
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings who are looking to extend winning streaks has been a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 213-225 for -39.56 units, an R.O.I. of -9.0%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 83-108 for -27.01 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -14.1%.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE OAKLAND
3+ games – FADE TEXAS
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 217-144 for +23.71 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 6.6%.
System Match: NY YANKEES
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1434-1339 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -171.07 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX, FADE KANSAS CITY, FADE LA DODGERS
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored 2 runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE WASHINGTON, FADE MIAMI, FADE TAMPA BAY, FADE LA ANGELS, FADE SAN DIEGO
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE PITTSBURGH, FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE DETROIT, FADE NY METS, FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX, FADE COLORADO, FADE SEATTLE, FADE LA DODGERS
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 49-52 (-24.36 units, ROI: -24.1%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE TEXAS
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE (+39), LA ANGELS (+51), OAKLAND (+32)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS (+33), PITTSBURGH (+30), LA DODGERS (+25), CHI WHITE SOX (+16), BALTIMORE (+27)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI-MILWAUKEE OVER 7.5 (+0.89), TAMPA BAY-MINNESOTA OVER 8.5 (+0.64), TEXAS-TORONTO OVER 8 (+0.74), KANSAS CITY-CHICAGO WHITE SOX OVER 8.5 (+1.23), ST LOUIS-BALTIMORE OVER 9.5 (+0.55)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WASHINGTON-PITTSBURGH UNDER 9 (-0.66)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) CHICAGO-NL (78-68) at (902) COLORADO (52-92)
Trend: Chicago trending UNDER in NL East/West matchups (19-34 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Chicago decent against LH starters (26-21, +2.97 units)
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS
Trend: Colorado bad against RH starters (33-66, -19.90 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Trend: Colorado not as bad at HOME (30-39 record)
(903) WASHINGTON (65-80) at (904) PITTSBURGH (67-78)
Trend: Washington not as good at NIGHT (36-49, +4.86 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington better on the ROAD (34-37, +20.37 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER in NIGHT games (50-35 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(905) ATLANTA (95-50) at (906) PHILADELPHIA (79-66)
Trend: Atlanta dominant against NL teams (69-30, +16.70 units)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER a couple of ways (56-40 O/U at NIGHT, 17-9 O/U vs LH starters)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Philadelphia not as good at NIGHT (44-43, -12.78 units)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia is 0-2 vs. RHP Spencer Strider this season
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
(907) ARIZONA (76-70) at (908) NEW YORK-NL (66-78)
Trend: Arizona pretty good record on the ROAD (38-35, +8.97 units)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Arizona trending UNDER a couple of ways (17-27 O/U vs LH starters, 38-48 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: NYM trending UNDER at HOME (23-43 O/U!)
System Match: UNDER
(909) MIAMI (74-71) at (910) MILWAUKEE (81-63)
Trend: Miami trending UNDER against NL Central/West (21-35 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Milwaukee not as good against LH starters (18-22, -9.00 units)
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee better at HOME (42-28, +3.82 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
(911) SAN DIEGO (68-78) at (912) LOS ANGELES-NL (88-56)
Trend: San Diego good with LHP Blake Snell starting (8-1 record in his last 9 starts)
System Match: SAN DIEGO
Trend: San Diego bad against RH starters (44-59, -36.08 units)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
Trend: LAD good against San Diego this season (9-3 record, 4-1 at HOME)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD good at NIGHT (66-36, +9.63 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
(913) TAMPA BAY (89-57) at (914) MINNESOTA (76-69)
Trend: Tampa Bay good vs. AL Central/West (38-22, +3.58 units)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Trend: Tampa Bay good vs LH starters (20-8, +9.40 units)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Trend: Tampa Bay slight UNDER on the ROAD (30-36 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Minnesota trending OVER vs. AL East/West (33-23 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(915) LOS ANGELES-AL (68-78) at (916) SEATTLE (80-65)
Trend: LAA trending OVER in division (27-14 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Seattle good against AL West teams (25-13, +7.86 units)
System Match: SEATTLE
Trend: Seattle good with RHP Luis Castillo starting (have won 8 in a row)
System Match: SEATTLE
Trend: Seattle slight UNDER in DAY games (22-26 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(917) TEXAS (80-64) at (918) TORONTO (80-65)
Trend: Texas not as good on the ROAD (35-34, -4.92 units)
System Match: FADE TEXAS
Trend: Texas good against LH starters (26-15, +4.91 units)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas good in AL East/Central games (35-21, +7.72 units)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Toronto trending UNDER at HOME (26-39 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Toronto good against AL Central/West (38-24, +2.03 units)
System Match: TORONTO
(919) OAKLAND (46-99) at (920) HOUSTON (82-64)
Trend: Oakland slight UNDER in divisional games (18-27 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Oakland pretty good with RHP Paul Blackburn starting (7-2 in L9)
System Match: OAKLAND
Trend: Houston good in the season series (9-3 record)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Houston slight OVER at HOME (41-32 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(921) NEW YORK-AL (73-72) at (922) BOSTON (73-72)
Trend: NYY not as good at NIGHT (44-49, -11.77 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
Trend: Boston is good in this series in 2023 (8-3 record)
System Match: BOSTON
(923) KANSAS CITY (45-101) at (924) CHICAGO-AL (56-89)
Trend: Kansas City bad at NIGHT (25-64, -30.31 units)
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY
Trend: Chicago more UNDER in divisional games (18-28 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Chicago trending OVER as ML favorite (31-20-2 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(925) CLEVELAND (69-77) at (926) SAN FRANCISCO (74-71)
Trend: Cleveland bad against LH starters (21-32, -20.41 units)
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND
Trend: Cleveland not great in interleague play (19-24, -8.83 units)
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND
Trend: San Francisco better at HOME (42-32 record)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER vs. LH starters (16-25 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(927) ST LOUIS (64-81) at (928) BALTIMORE (91-53)
Trend: St Louis bad at NIGHT (37-59, -31.12 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
Trend: St Louis slight UNDER on the ROAD (33-38 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Baltimore good against LH starters (34-16, +16.22 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Baltimore good at NIGHT (59-33, +24.39 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
(929) CINCINNATI (75-71) at (930) DETROIT (66-78)
Trend: Cincinnati better at NIGHT (48-40, +15.25 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati good in interleague play (25-14, +14.29 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Detroit trending OVER a couple of ways (38-32 O/U at HOME, 26-13 O/U in interleague play)
System Match: OVER
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends
NO QUALIFYING HEAD-TO-HEAD PLAYS TODAY (next one Tuesday 9/19)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next couple Friday 9/15)
