Best Bets on Today’s MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
Welcome to the final countdown before the all-star break. I finished last week strong going 2-0 on Sunday as both the Twins/Orioles and Yankees/Cardinals landed NRFI. It was a sweet end to a relatively mediocre week, and I hope some of you could profit along with me, but as they say, you’re only as good as your next wager.
Top MLB Resources:
Keep reading to find out my best bets for Friday, July 7th. I recommend two units for each. All odds are via DraftKings but be sure to shop around for the best line.
Records:
Last week: 4-2
Season record: 30-24, +2.59 units, +2.6% ROI
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins
Old reliable. The irony here is the Marlins have actually been one of the hotter offenses lately, putting up some crooked numbers in their series against the Cardinals earlier this week. But that batting bliss turned sour Thursday when Jack Flaherty and the woeful St. Louis bullpen shut them out. I was on the NRFI in that game, and I think Miami’s offense might regress to the mean quickly after scoring an early run in three straight. To make things more difficult on them tonight they face Cy Young candidate Zack Wheeler, who has posted a 14-3 NRFI record this season and solid data across the board.
On the other side, it’s obvious Sandy Alcantara is not in Cy Young form, and he had his worst start of the season last time out against these same Phillies allowing nine earned runs. But that outing was three months ago, and even that game landed NRFI. Alcantara’s struggles have also strangely not translated to the first inning. His 14-3 NRFI record this season is better than the average starter, and he’s 8-0 at home. That being said, I’m already having nightmares about Kyle Schwarber taking Alcantara deep with the first pitch of the game, which is something I’ve already endured two times when I’ve been on a Phillies NRFI this season.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Zack Wheeler vs:
Luis Arraez (1-for-3)
Jorge Soler (3-for-8)
Bryan De La Cruz (3-for-8)
Sandy Alcantara vs:
Kyle Schwarber (8-for-29)
Trea Turner (12-for-30, HR)
Nick Castellanos (6-for-18)
Bet: No Run First Inning (-135)
Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland has gone 16 consecutive games without scoring a run in the first inning, approaching the Mets’ season-long drought of 19. On the surface, it appears like a dire spot to back a YRFI, but if there’s one thing I have learned about these bets, it is that they tend to balance out over the long haul. In fact, despite their lengthy scoreless streak, the Guardians have still recorded a 33% scoring rate at home this season (14-for-43), which is right on par with the MLB average.
The pitching matchup is favoring some early runs. Daniel Lynch starts for Kansas City. The lefty is just 5-2 to the NRFI this season and 32-17 since 2019, a rate of just 65% and well below the MLB average. His xFIP in the first inning this season is north of 6.00, and the Guards have the second-highest wRC+ in the first inning vs. LHP since June 1st. On the other side Aaron Civale has been fortunate to post a 7-1 NRFI record this season and 4-0 at home considering his xFIP in the first inning is nearly 6.00 and with a .276 batting average against.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Daniel Lynch vs:
Steven Kwan (0-for-3)
Amed Rosario (6-for-11)
Jose Ramirez (4-for-9)
Aaron Civale vs:
Maikel Garcia (never faced)
Bobby Witt Jr. (2-for-11)
Salvador Perez (3-for-8, HR)
Bet: Yes Run First Inning (-115)
