Best Bets on Today’s MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
The 2023 MLB season is underway and VSiN has you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. I’m tackling YRFI and NRFI markets here, where you only have to sweat out your bet for about 15 minutes. These markets have increased in popularity over the last couple of years, and I will do my best to find you the edge. You can track the results of my MLB wagers this season here. Keep reading to find out my best bets for Friday, June 9th.
Top MLB Resources:
All odds via DraftKings
Miami Marlins at Chicago White Sox
I love fishing in shallow waters with the Marlins, who continue to cash NRFIs at nearly a 67% rate this season (42-for-63). That mark improves to 81% (30-for-37) when priced at -120 or higher, which it is again today. I’m not concerned about Dylan Cease against this Miami offense in the top of the first. The righty has posted an 11-2 NRFI record this season (7-0 at home) and has fantastic data across the board in the first inning.
Marlins youngster Eury Perez obviously concerns me a bit, especially on the road. However, the righty has started his career with an unblemished 5-0 NRFI record and nearly a 40% strikeout rate in the 1st inning. He also gets the advantage of a fresh look against this White Sox lineup, which is always advantage NRFI. Chicago’s offense has been subpar in the opening frame this season with a scoring rate of only 21.9% (14-for-64) however that rate increases to 32% at home (10-for-31).
Here’s how each pitcher has fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Eury Perez vs:
Tim Anderson (never faced)
Andrew Benintendi(never faced)
Luis Robert Jr. (never faced)
Dylan Cease vs:
Luis Arraez (5-for-19)
Jorge Soler (0-for-13)
Bryan De La Cruz (never faced)
Bet: No Run First Inning (-135)
Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
I was surprised to see such a low total in this game, which translates to a favorable YRFI price, especially considering who is pitching for Cincinnati. Ben Lively hasn’t exactly been lighting up the radar gun for the Reds. The righty posted a 2-2 NRFI record this season with a 5.91 xFIP in the first inning. Lively’s fastball velocity does not live up to his namesake, in the 15th percentile of pitchers this season. He’ll face a St. Louis lineup that has been one of the most consistent at scoring early runs this season with an overall rate of 39.7% (25-for-63) and 46.4% at home (13-for-28).
Jordan Montgomery has been about average for the Cardinals this season pitching to a 4.23 overall ERA and an 8-4 NRFI record. The one interesting thing about his splits is he is significantly worse at home, with a 5.74 ERA at Busch Stadium, compared to 3.20 on the road. He also draws a Reds lineup with the highest wRC+ in the first inning against southpaws this season. As you can see by the numbers below, both pitchers have exposure against the opposing lineups, with St. Louis having slightly more success against Lively.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Ben Lively vs:
Brendan Donovan (1-for-2, HR)
Paul Goldschmidt (5-for-11, HR)
Nolan Gorman (1-for-3)
Jordan Montgomery vs:
Kevin Newman (0-for-2)
Matt McLain (2-for-3)
Jonathan India (2-for-4)
Bet: Yes Run First Inning (-115)
