Best Bets on Today’s MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
I bounced back strong yesterday going 2-0 on my best bets. Cole Ragans and Steven Matz both faced the minimum in Kansas City, with Ragans getting some help from a Nolan Arenado double play. Later in Los Angeles, we were correct in predicting regression from Peter Lambert and Tony Gonsolin, who each got touched up for a run in the opening frame. The bad news is we are just 2-2 and still slightly down on the week because of juice, but the good news is we can finish in positive territory with two wins today. Onward we go.
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Keep reading to find out my best bets for Sunday, August 13th. I recommend two units for each. All odds are via DraftKings, but be sure to shop around for the best line as prices vary dramatically in this market.
Best Bets Season Record: 47-41 (53.4%) +0.44u +0.3% ROI
New York Yankees at Miami Marlins
Eury Perez was recalled to the majors last week and continued his NRFI ways pitching a clean first inning in his return. The rookie is 11-1 to the NRFI this season and 6-0 at home, with his only road blemish coming in Atlanta against the highest first-inning team in baseball, the Braves. Obviously, Aaron Judge could explode at any moment and ruin this for us in the top of the first, but the reigning AL MVP is clearly less than 100%, homering just three times in 59 plate appearances since the All-Star break.
Gerrit Cole is 19-5 to the NRFI this season and 10-0 on the road. It appears as if he has locked up the AL Cy Young as he enters the day a considerable favorite in the market. Home runs have been an issue with three of his 15 allowed coming in the opening frame. However, after scoring (and homering) in the first inning yesterday, I feel confident the Marlins will not repeat that performance two games in a row. Miami has not scored an early run in consecutive games since the All-Star break.
I was able to find -125 available in the market and would feel comfortable playing this up to -135, which was the price offered by DraftKings at the time of publication.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Eury Perez vs.:
Jake Bauers (never faced)
Gleyber Torres (never faced)
Aaron Judge (never faced)
Gerrit Cole vs.:
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (never faced)
Josh Bell (0-for-7, K, 2 BBs)
Luis Arraez (2-for-7, HR, K, BB)
Bet: No Run First Inning (-135)
Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers
Kyle Freeland has been trending down with a 5.63 ERA in three starts since the All-Star break. He made it through a clean first inning against the Dodgers at home back in late June, but then imploded for six runs in the fourth. That’s the kind of volatility I’m looking for when fading a pitcher, especially when I consider chaos a close ally of the YRFI. The Dodgers have scored an early run in 40.5% of their games this season (47-for-116) which is the highest rate in the league. That rate jumps to 45.6% (26-for-57) at home.
*Keep an eye on the lineup to make sure Freddie Freeman is available after leaving last night’s game with an injury. It was reported after the game that he would play, but I would say he is worth about five or 10 cents on the closing number if he sits.
Julio Urias has allowed a .406 batting average and has issued seven of his 21 walks in the first inning this season, which explains his 9-8 NRFI record. As stated in yesterday’s column, I’m a big fan of this Rockies lineup, which has been inexplicably better on the road this season. Colorado’s scoring rate in the first inning is nearly 34% (21-for-62) away from Coors Field but drops to 23.6% (13-for-55) at altitude. Perhaps the most random stat of the season.
I was able to find -105 in the market and would feel comfortable playing this up to -120 but not at the -130 price being offered by DraftKings at the time of publication.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Kyle Freeland vs.:
Mookie Betts (7-for-31, 4 2B, 2 HR, 10 Ks, 2 BBs)
Freddie Freeman (7-for-28, 3 2Bs, 11 Ks, 3 BBs)
Will Smith (4-for-14, 2B, HR, 4 Ks, 2 BBs)
Julio Urias vs.:
Jurickson Profar (3-for-22, 4 Ks)
Ezequiel Tovar (1-for-2)
Ryan McMahon (7-for-22, 3 2Bs, HR, 6 Ks)
Bet: Yes Run First Inning (-130)
