Best Bets on Today’s MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
Yesterday I finally had a breakthrough going 2-0 with my best bets moving my record to 3-1 for the week. It started with the Braves putting up a crooked number on Julio Teheran in the bottom of the first, giving me some validation after Friday’s loss. Then later the YRFI hit in Los Angeles thanks to a two-out homer by Max Muncy, which was fortunate, but I’ve been on both sides of that aisle before and frankly was due for some good luck. If I can follow it up with another 2-0 performance today, this column will get back to profitability for the season.
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Keep reading to find out my best bets for Sunday, July 30th. I recommend three units for each. All odds are via DraftKings but be sure to shop around for the best line as prices vary dramatically in this market.
Best Bets Season Record: 40-36 (52.6%) -5.06u -3.2% ROI
Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves
The only logical reason I see not to go back to this matchup again today is the price, which is on the heftier side. I was able to find a -150 in the market this morning, and I would probably play this up to -160, which was being offered by DraftKings at the time of publication. I grade the pitching matchup a notch below yesterday, with AJ Smith-Shawver going for Atlanta against Colin Rea for the Brewers.
Smith-Shawver has limited data to report with a 2-1 NRFI record this season and an elevated 6.40 xFIP in the first inning. Rea has been slightly better at 14-4 and 4.51 but he obviously draws the considerably tougher lineup as Atlanta has now scored double-digit runs in both games of this series. They also have a 49% scoring rate at home in the opening frame this season (26-for-53) which is the second-highest rate in the league just behind the Red Sox (50.9%).
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Colin Rea vs.:
Ronald Acuna (never faced)
Ozzie Albies (never faced)
Austin Riley (never faced)
Matt Olson (never faced)
AJ Smith-Shawver vs.:
Christian Yelich (never faced)
William Contreras (never faced)
Willy Adames (never faced)
Sal Frelick (never faced)
Bet: Yes Run First Inning (-160)
Detroit Tigers at Miami Marlins
I’ve been on the Marlins NRFI in both games of this series going 1-1, but it hasn’t graduated to “best bet” territory until today. That’s because the pitching matchup is tasty with Jesus Luzardo going up against Tarik Skubal. I would consider Luzardo the Marlins’ ace this season, with elite data to back up his 19-2 NRFI record. The lefty also hasn’t allowed a home run in the opening frame with a 37% strikeout rate and 2.60 xFIP.
Skubal is making just his fifth start of the season due to injury, but he’s 4-0 to the NRFI with a 43% strikeout rate and 1.85 xFIP in the opening frame. I was concerned about him facing Jorge Soler in the bottom of the first, who is 2-for-4 lifetime against Skubal with two homers and two walks. However, Soler has been struggling since the All-Star break and is not in Sunday’s lineup, which is a big boost for this NRFI.
I was able to find plenty of -135 in the market on Sunday morning, and I would likely play this up to -140, but not at the -150 being offered by DraftKings at the time of publication. Always be shopping.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Tarik Skubal vs.:
Luis Arraez (1-for-9, 2B)
Bryan De La Cruz (never faced)
Garrett Cooper (never faced)
Jon Berti (never faced)
Jesus Luzardo vs.:
Matt Vierling (3-for-9, 2B, 3B, K)
Andy Ibanez (never faced)
Spencer Torkelson (never faced)
Riley Greene (never faced)
Bet: No Run First Inning (-150)
