Best Bets on Today’s MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
All the good vibes from Friday’s 2-0 performance evaporated on Saturday with a difficult 0-for-2. Both were excruciating beats and a healthy reminder of just how random these bets are, despite the extensive research and handicapping that’s involved. I don’t feel the need to recap each one, if you followed me, you know how they ended. My best advice is to manage your bankroll appropriately and eliminate all emotion involved with a bet as volatile as this. It’s six outs, one mistake, one swing, one wild pitch (sigh) usually decides it.
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Keep reading to find out my best bets for Sunday, July 9th. I recommend 2 units for each. All odds are via DraftKings but be sure to shop around for the best line.
Season Record: 32-26 (55.2%) +2.19u +2.0% ROI
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins
Despite pushing across an early run four times in their last six games, including three yesterday, the Marlins still have the lowest first-scoring rate in MLB this season at 20% (18-for-91). Miami’s overall NRFI record is 60-31 (65.1%), but the average odds for this bet have been -122, which implies a 55% probability. That 10% gap between the actual hit rate and the implied probability is where "value" exists if the matchup and situation also align.
In this case, it does with Aaron Nola and Jesus Luzardo on the mound. Those two have combined to go 29-7 to the NRFI this season, which is an 81% hit rate. Luzardo has been incredibly effective and has yet to allow a home run in the first inning this season to go along with a 37% strikeout rate. Nola has struggled a bit on the road, but his xFIP in the first inning is one of the lowest on the board today, and he’s coming off an impressive outing at Tropicana Field against the Rays where he pitched into the eighth and allowed just one run.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Aaron Nola vs:
Luis Arraez (2-for-3)
Jorge Soler (4-for-13, 2 BBs, 3 Ks)
Bryan De La Cruz (1-for-8, K)
Jesus Luzardo vs:
Kyle Schwarber (2-for-6, HR, 3 Ks)
Trea Turner (0-for-5, BB, K)
Nick Castellanos (2-for-5, BB, 2 Ks)
Bet: No Run First Inning (-150)
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
This series has gone YRFI in both games with Milwaukee scoring both times. Today, the pitching matchup leads me to believe we will see more early fireworks. Ben Lively has posted a subpar 3-4 NRFI record this season with a .323 batting average against and four home runs allowed in the opening frame. His fastball does not live up to the namesake in just the 12th percentile for velocity this season. He faced this same Brewers team at home just a month ago and allowed five earned runs including a three-run dinger in the first inning.
Wade Miley starts for Milwaukee, who has actually posted an impressive 11-1 NRFI record this season including 6-0 at home. However, if you take a closer look at his first-inning data, his xFIP is nearly double his actual FIP (2.62 to 4.62) which indicates he has been a little fortunate. In fact, if you widen Miley’s sample to include all of his starts since 2019, he is just 56-29 to the NRFI, which is a 65% hit rate and much more indicative of the type of stuff he has. Overall, this season Miley is in the third percentile of fastball velocity and sixth percentile of whiff rate. I love this right-handed heavy Reds lineup against the lefty, whose xFIP jumps from 3.79 to 5.29 when facing righty hitters this season.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Ben Lively vs:
Christian Yelich (2-for-6, BB)
William Contreras (never faced)
Willy Adames (never faced)
Wade Miley vs:
Kevin Newman (3-for-12, 2 BB, K)
Matt McLain (never faced)
Jonathan India (0-for-2, BB, K)
Bet: Yes Run First Inning (-125)
