Best Bets on Today’s MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
I went 1-1 on Saturday’s YRFI/NRFI best bets as the Marlins money train kept rolling along for us, but things didn’t go so well in Cleveland as both the Guardians and Astros got on the board early. My record stands at 3-1 for the week and 19-15 this season with VSIN writeups. You can expect articles from me every weekend as I analyze the most exciting market in MLB, where you only have to sweat out your bet for 15 minutes. Keep reading to find out my best plays for Sunday, June 11th.
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Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves
This series has seen a ton of action in the first inning with the YRFI cashing in both games and both teams scoring in yesterday’s opening frame. I’m willing to bet the early fireworks continue today in Atlanta especially considering the pitching matchup. Trevor Williams has been trending in a negative direction for Washington after a strong start to the season. His 11-1 NRFI record is well above his career NRFI rate of 68.2% (50-for-73), and I think he is due for regression soon. He faces a Braves offense that is one of the best in baseball this season, sporting a 47% scoring rate in the first inning at home (16-for-34).
Bryce Elder is another pitcher I think is due for some first-inning regression. He’s posted an 11-2 NRFI record this season, which is fantastic, but his xFIP is elevated and nearly a run higher than his actual FIP (4.79 to 3.61) so it’s fair to say he’s been fortunate. You might be surprised to learn the Nationals lineup has a slightly above-average scoring rate in the first inning this season at 31.8% (20-for-63) despite not having any starts at the top of the order.
Both pitchers have plenty of exposure to the opposing lineups. Here’s how each has fared against the projected top of the order:
Trevor Williams vs:
Ronald Acuna Jr. (6-for-12, 2 HR)
Matt Olson (0-for-2)
Austin Riley (2-for-10)
Bryce Elder vs:
Lane Thomas (1-for-8)
Luis Garcia (3-for-5)
Joe Meneses (2-for-5)
Bet: Yes Run First Inning (-135)
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies
Coors Field has been a fascinating study this season. Usually a hotbed for scoring, it’s been relatively frigid in the opening frame with nearly a 50% NRFI rate, well below the 42% we saw last season. That being said, the YRFI has cashed in the first two games of this series, with the Padres scoring both times. Colorado’s offense continues to be puzzlingly poor at home with one of the lowest scoring rates in all of baseball at 17.7% (6-for-34). I don’t expect their bats to be very perky today, especially considering they have to get on a plane after the game and fly to Boston for a series against the Red Sox starting Monday, which is the start of a 10-day road trip.
Blake Snell has posted a 9-3 NRFI record this season and a solid 3.60 xFIP in the first inning. His 82.3% NRFI rate since 2019 (79-for-96) is also well above average. He hasn’t had a ton of success at Coors Field in his career with a 7.48 ERA in 5 starts, which is obviously concerning. I like the matchup on the other side with hard-throwing Dinelson Lamet against his former team. If you recall, Lamet was involved in the Josh Hader trade last season, but then the Brewers waived him shortly after. He was then claimed by Colorado and made 19 appearances out of the bullpen down the stretch. This season he’s made two starts and has posted a 1-1 NRFI record (1-0 at Coors Field). His overall ERA is a whopping 12.42 but he’s been much better in the opening frame with an xFIP of 2.56.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Blake Snell vs:
Charlie Blackmon (6-for-18)
Jurickson Profar (1-for-3)
Ryan McMahon (0-for-10)
Dinelson Lamet vs:
Fernando Tatis Jr. (never faced)
Juan Soto (1-for-2)
Manny Machado (0-for-1)
Bet: No Run First Inning (+125)
