UFC 302 Best Bets, Picks and Predictions
VSiN Primetime producer Britton Hess has some strong takes on the UFC 302 card and put pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts on every fight on the docket and offer his UFC best bets.
UFC BEST BET HISTORY
UFC Fight Night 92: 2-5, (-2.5 Units, -33.78%
Article History: 41-45 (+3.59 Units, +3.81%)
PICK’EM HISTORY
UFC Best Bets Fight Night 92: 6-6 (50%)
Article History: 79-59 (57.25%)
MAIN EVENT
Islam Makhachev (-600) vs Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier (+440)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+150) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-195)
Islam Makhachev has been destined to be champion since he entered the UFC. He was from Dagestan, he trained with Khabib Nurmagomedov, he was a dominant wrestler. And he won his first UFC fight via rear naked choke in the second round. But fight #2 in the UFC featured adversity unlike anything his mentor, Khabib, ever faced. Makhachev was young, aggressive and overly confident in his striking. He lunged in with a punch at his opponent, the journeyman Adrian Martins, didn’t move his head, and ate a devastating counter punch that ended the fight.
After the loss Makhachev fell to 12-1 as a pro, he is now 25-1, and 14-1 in the UFC alone. He learned from that mistake and is now a UFC champion, mainly because he largely stopped taking unnecessary risks on the feet. This has led to one of the more impressive win streaks in the UFC’s lightweight division. And he is back to ending fights early with a career 64% finish rate in MMA’s top organization. He doesn’t get hit often, only absorbing 1.27 significant strikes per minute while also controlling his opponents 83% of the time they are on the ground or in the clinch. He spams takedowns early in fights and has a 61% takedown accuracy rate with a takedown ratio of 31:2. He is a tough nut to crack because he learned from his mistake vs. Adriano Martins, he has only been knocked down once since that fight, in his first bout with then featherweight champion, Alexander Volkanovski.
Dustin Poirier has been fighting elite competition in the UFC for a very long time, even the list of names from early in his career is impressive because so many of these opponents became UFC legends. He is 30 fights into his UFC run, in his first 15 UFC fights he faced Max Holloway, Chan Sung Jung, Cub Swanson, Conor McGregor, and Bobby Green. The biggest names on Poirier’s most recent 15 fights are a lot of the same and some fresh ones: Jim Miller, Eddie Alvarez x2, Anthony Pettis, Justin Gaethje x2, Max Holloway, Khabib Nurmagomedov, Conor McGregor x2, Charles Oliveira, and Michael Chandler.
Maybe breaking a 22-7, 1 NC record down into 15 fight groups is strange, but it feels relevant because Poirier’s opponent just finished his 15th UFC fight, but the volume of big names on Makhachev’s resume isn’t in the same ballpark. That doesn’t mean Makhachev isn’t the rightful favorite, but illustrates the point that Poirier is not going to see anything from his opponent that he hasn’t seen before. But the lengthy resume also has some drawbacks, Poirier is now an “old” lightweight at age 35, and he has taken damage. He has been knocked out 3 times in the UFC, on average absorbs 4.46 significant strikes per minute, and has been submitted three times too. He has eaten 23+ significant head strikes from each of his last four opponents, none of which are lacking knockout power; Benoit Saint-Denis, Justin Gaethje, Michael Chandler, and Charles Oliveira
DraftKings opened the line at Makhachev -450, with it peaking at -700 on Wednesday evening. I think getting 5/1 on Poirier is a logical buy point, but we may not see that number again. And the only time Islam has been at real risk in recent memory was his first bout with Volkanovski. Makhachev banked the first three rounds and seemingly was sluggish in rounds four and five. Perhaps he didn’t have a good weight cut or maybe he took his opponent lightly. I do not think he is taking Poirier lightly, especially after seeing Poirier fight through Benoit Saint-Denis’s early grappling aggression and find the knockout. I expect Makhachev to strike to set up the grappling, and if they get to the ground, I expect him to take position over submission. I also expect Poirier to have some confidence in his power, and his standup ability after being taken down. His two last victories have come inside the distance after being taken down three times. That said, neither Benoit Saint-Denis nor Michael Chandler has the MMA grappling of Islam Makhachev.
I think Makhachev is too big of a favorite, but I do not think he is going to win this fight. In these spots, often the best way to attack the odds board is by looking at the total. Here are a few examples from the recent past featuring dominant grapplers as huge favorites:
Gilbert Burns +400 vs Khamzat Chimaev ❌- o1.5 (-115)✅
Kamaru Usman +320 vs Khamzat Chimaev❌ – o2.5 (+130)✅
Alexander Vokanovski +280 vs Islam Makhachev ❌ – o4.5 (+138)✅
Derrick Lewis +350 vs Jailton Almeida ❌ – o1.5 (+240) ✅
Over 2.5 Rounds is currently +150 at DraftKings, Over 1.5 Rounds is -140. I think Poirier has at least 7.5 minutes of fight in him, and I think that Makhachev is more likely to be conservative early than all-out aggressive. He knows his opponent has power, and he knows he slowed down last time he was deep into a five-round main event fight.
FIGHT WINNER: Islam Makhachev
UFC 302 BEST BET: Over 1.5 Rounds (-140), Risk 1.4 Units to Win 1
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CO-MAIN EVENT
Sean “Tarzan” Strickland (-258) vs Paulo “The Eraser” Costa (+210)
Over 4.5 Rounds (-105) | Under 4.5 Rounds (-125)
Sean Strickland seemed destined to be a middleweight gatekeeper, but despite all odds, he found a way to beat the right opponents at the right time. After back-to-back losses versus Alex Pereira and Jared Cannonier, he beat prospect Nassourdine Imavov as an underdog and Abus Magomedov as a short favorite. The division had become stale after Israel Adesanya cleaned out the roster. Suddenly Strickland found himself with a title on the other side of the globe. He was a +470 underdog and won via unanimous decision in front of a hostile Australian crowd. He lost his title defense versus Dricus Du Plessis via split decision in a pick-em fight.
Strickland is 15-6 in the UFC over the course of his 10 years in the organization. He is a cardio freak who excels in fights the longer they go. He has tricky striking defense using a shoulder roll most UFC fighters can’t execute and throws more volume than basically anyone his size. This is a five-round fight and will be the seventh bout of this length in Strickland’s UFC career. In those bouts has, on average, landed 152.0 significant strikes while absorbing 112.29.
Paulo Costa rose in the UFC ranks by winning via KO in his first four fights in the organization. He got a shot against a legend in Yoel Romero and won via Unanimous decision. This led to him getting a shot at the champion, Israel Adesanya. It did not go as well as Strickland’s title bout; Adesanya KO’d Costa in the second round. Costa is 9-3 in the UFC; five of his first six trips to the octagon ended in the first two rounds, but his last three fights have gone the distance. Outside of his fight versus Adesanya, his chin has held up; he ate 190 significant strikes in a five-round loss to Marvin Vettori, he ate 51 versus Luke Rockhold in a 3 round win versus Luke Rockhold, and ate 93 versus Robert Whittaker in a three-round loss.
When Sean Strickland wins, it usually goes the distance. He has one finish in his last six victories dating back to 2021. The knockout victory was versus an overmatched Abus Magomedov who blew his wad early and had no answer for Strickland’s volume in the second round. I like attacking this fight in two ways. Sean Strickland’s significant strike prop has been steamed up to 125.5. I still like the over. He lands 5.91 significant strikes per minute. This fight is 25 minutes, if he lands on par with his average he will have nearly 150 significant strikes landed by fight’s end. But the cherry on top is Paulo Costa’s abysmal striking defense coupled with a strong chin. Costa absorbs on average 6.38 significant strikes per minute, and he has not fought a fighter who throws as much as Sean Strickland.
FIGHT WINNER: Sean Strickland
UFC 302 BEST BETS: Sean Strickland OVER 125.5 Significant Strikes Landed. Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1
Sean Strickland to win via Decision (+150)
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Kevin “Trailblazer” Holland (-290) vs Michal “Hussar” Oleksiejczuk (+235)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-140) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+110)
Kevin Holland has a reputation to be fighting anyone, anytime, anywhere. This strategy has endeared him to fans but has taken a toll on his record. He is 12-8, 1 NC in the UFC, despite not coming to the organization until August 2018. That is 21 fights in the UFC, on average entering the cage every 3.33 months. He has extreme length for the middleweight division, with an 81-inch reach. He uses that length to control distance and find leverage on strikes, giving them extraordinary power, almost like a blown-up “Suga” Sean O’Malley. He also uses his long, boney limbs to find submissions, He has three chokes on his UFC resume to accompany his six knockout victories.
Michal Oleksiejczuk is an all gas, no brakes fighter. He has a 7-5, 1 NC record in the UFC. Six of his seven wins have come via first-round knockout, with the seventh via split decision. His five losses have also mostly come in short fights. Four of his defeats have ended in the first two rounds via submission with the one decision loss coming vs Dustin Jacoby. Michal Oleksiejczuk has legitimate one-punch knockout power and a good chin. He has scored five knockdowns but has received zero.
Kevin Holland is an opportunistic wrestler, if he wants to get Oleksiejczuk to the ground, he should be able to get it there. If he gets him to the ground, he should be able to find the finish. But he needs to fight smart, in a pure striking match, Holland is fighting on equal footing at best. On the ground, he can take over.
FIGHT WINNER: Kevin Holland
UFC 302 BEST BET: Kevin Holland Inside the Distance (-115), Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1
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Niko “The Hybrid” Price (+210) vs Alex “The Great White” Morono (-258)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+124) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-258)
Niko Price is a fighter who knows he doesn’t get paid by the minute. In 14 completed UFC fights he has made it to the judges scorecards twice. He is 7-7 in the UFC with two no contests. One of those no contests occurred versus this opponent, Alex Morono back in 2017. On the night of the fight Price won via KO, but the result was overturned by the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation due to a failed drug test (marijuana). His first six official UFC wins came via finish, but recently he has hit a bit of a wall. He only has one victory in his last six trips to the octagon, with that victory coming via decision. Four of the fights during this streak have been losses, three inside the distance, and the last was a majority draw vs. Donald Cerrone, which was also overturned to a no contest due to a failed marijuana test.
Alex Morono is a bit of a UFC gatekeeper. He isn’t an easy opponent for anyone, but he isn’t going to be in the welterweight title conversation anytime soon, either. He is a cerebral fighter who doesn’t overwhelm opponents with volume, power, or grappling, but he is good in all areas. He is 13-6, with 1 NC in the UFC. nine of his victories and four of his defeats have come on the judges’ scorecards. He has been TKO’d twice, but one of those losses has an asterisk because it was up a class at middleweight. He has won six of his last seven fights at welterweight with the one loss coming to the streaking Joaquin Buckley.
Fight IQ and recent form are all on the side of Morono. The ability to create chaos and find the finish will be with Price. These fighters are not the guys who entered the octagon seven years ago. Morono has become more of a professional and Price has continued to find ways to choose the wrong path in the cage.
FIGHT WINNER: Alex Morono
UFC 302 BEST BET: Pass
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Randy “Rude Boy” Brown (-175) vs Elizeu “Capoeira” Zaleski (+145)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-140) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+110)
This fight features two veterans who have each lasted in the octagon longer than most, Randy Brown is 12-5 in the organization, Zaleski is 10-3-1. Zaleski is a tall welterweight at 6’3” with a 78” reach. Zaleski is the more typical size at 5’11” with a reach of 73”. Despite having more UFC fights, Randy Brown is the four year younger fighter. Randy Brown boasts a 50% finish rate, Zaleski is more of a decision fighter with 60% of his victories coming on the judges’ scorecards, and has not won inside the distance since 2019.
Randy Brown had one of the knockouts of the year in his last fight in another bout versus an aging competitor. Zaleski has been knocked down six times in his career. It is tempting to take Randy Brown via knockout here, but I think his moneyline price is not too pricey yet.
FIGHT WINNER: Randy Brown
UFC 302 BEST BET: Parlay piece, see below
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Roman Kopylov (-105) vs Cesar “Cesinha” Almeida (-115)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+100) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-130)
Roman Kopylov is one of the most skilled knockout artists in the UFC’s middleweight division. All four of his UFC victories have come via strikes. His weakness is grappling. Two of his UFC losses have come via submission, and the third was against Albert Duraev, who was able to win the first two rounds, largely due to a timely takedown, and survive the third to take home the decision.
The good news for Kopylov is that Almeida will not attempt to take him down. The bad news is Almeida is not a fighter anyone wants to engage on the feet. A 36 year old striker taking his sixth professional MMA fight, Almeida is one of the few fighters who defeated Alex Pereira in kickboxing. Four of his five MMA victories have come via KO. He made his UFC debut two months ago vs Dylan Budka. He was taken down three times but only ate one significant strike. He was able to find the KO victory in round 2.
Maybe Kopylov has a grappling game. Early in his career, he dabbled with wrestling, but he has not attempted a takedown in his last three fights. Almeida was also taken down three times in his Contender Series fight, but he won via unanimous decision by more than doubling up his opponent in significant strikes. He has shown the ability to fight through wrestlers with his impressive physical strength.
I do not think this is a good matchup for Kopylov. I think Almeida will punish him if he gets overly aggressive with his strikes, and I do not believe the Russian can simply flip a switch and become an elite MMA wrestler.
DraftKings opened Kopylov as a -125 favorite, but the odds have flipped for good reason.
FIGHT WINNER: Cesar Almeida
UFC 302 BEST BET: Cesar Almeida via KO (+240), Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.4
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Jailton “Malhadinho” Almeida (-325) vs Alexandr “King Kong” Romanov (+260)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-125) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-105)
Both of these fighters got hot starts in the UFC, but both also had great matchups for their styles when they arrived in the organization. And both have been humbled since fighting higher-level competition. Almeida has been a dominant wrestler since joining the organization. However, when he met Curtis Blaydes, a fighter with a wrestling pedigree and legitimate power, he was stopped. His rudimentary style of taking down his opponent until they stopped wanting to continue grappling backfired. He ended up wearing himself out and getting knocked out.
Romanov’s downfall came when he seemingly gained 20 pounds of bad weight overnight and took a fight at altitude against a veteran who was able to outlast him. In Romanov’s last fight, he fought smarter and won a decision against Blagoy Ivanov.
I believe Almeida’s skills are going to be tough for Romanov to deal with, and once again he looked sloppy on the scale. I don’t think his striking is good enough to slow down Almeida, and I don’t think his gas tank will survive Almeida’s wrestling onslaught.
FIGHT WINNER: Jailton Almeida
UFC 302 BEST BET: Parlay: Jailton Almeida/Randy Brown (+105), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.05
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Grant “KGD” Dawson (-535) vs Joe Solecki (+400)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-180) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+140)
Grant Dawson was climbing the rankings and earned his first Fight Night main event in his last trip to the octagon. After putting together an 8-0-1 UFC record he learned there are levels to this game and was knocked out by Bobby Green 33 seconds into the first round. But before that, he took care of business vs. Damir Ismagulov and took the -0 from Mark Madsen’s record.
Joe Solecki is an up-and-coming fighter with a 5-2 UFC record. He lost via slam against Drakkar Klose while chasing an arm bar back in December. Before that, his only UFC loss was a split decision vs. Jared Gordon.
Both of these fighters are submission artists. Thirteen of Dawson’s 20 pro wins are via sub, and eight of Solecki’s 13 have come via tap out or pass out. Solecki’s camp at Gym-O in North Carolina has tons of solid wrestlers, but Dawson is a member of American Top Team, maybe the deepest camp in the country.
We saw Dawson’s flaws versus strikers, but lucky for him, Solecki isn’t that. Dawson has dominated Olympic credentials and BJJ black belts. I think he will be confident getting this fight to the ground and will land more volume on the feet.
FIGHT WINNER: Grant Dawson
UFC 302 BEST BET: Pass
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Phil “The Fresh Prince” Rowe (+140) vs Jake “The Celtic Kid” Matthews (-166)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-150) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+120)
Phil Rowe is 3-2 in the UFC, but it feels like he has been in the organization much longer. In his last fight, he tried to “Neil Magny” against the real Neil Magny and lost via split decision. Rowe’s affinity for clinch fighting was a surprise because he has legit power. All three of his UFC wins have come via KO. He has not fought the biggest names overall but has put together a winning record despite only being a favorite once.
Despite still being in his 20s, Jake Matthews will be making his 20th trip to the UFC octagon on Saturday. He is 12-7 in the organization and was 19 when he made his UFC debut in 2014. He is mostly a grappler, but does have two knockout victories in the UFC. The names on his ledger are a stark contrast to Rowe’s meager offerings. He will have an advantage on the ground, but being taken down has not really been Phil Rowe’s kryptonite.
FIGHT WINNER: Phil Rowe
UFC 302 BEST BET: Fight Does Not Go Distance (+110), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.1
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Mickey Gall (+320) vs Bassil “The Habibi” Hafez (-410)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-115) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-115)
Mickey Gall arrived in the UFC in his early 20s and promptly derailed two huge hype trains, CM Punk, and Sage Northcutt. However, when his level of competition elevated.. he did not. He is 7-5 as a pro, and 6-5 in the UFC, he has grown up in this organization but hasn’t necessarily shown the professional growth one would expect.
Bassil Hafez was put in a tough spot in his UFC debut in July of 2023. He was a late replacement fighter vs Jack Della Maddalena and a +420 underdog. He pushed the prospect to his limits and lost via split decision. He earned a lot of fans with that performance because, for a while, it looked like he was going to pull off the upset. Overall he has an 8-4-1 record with an 8-3-1 record on the regional scene before getting the UFC call. His pre-UFC competition isn’t the worst I’ve seen, but I do not think it is elite.
This fight is a weird one to handicap. Most think Mickey Gall’s ship has sailed, and the Bassil Hafez we saw vs JDM is here to stay. I think I need to see it before I believe it. Fighting with no expectations is much different than taking a scheduled bout versus a UFC veteran.
FIGHT WINNER: Mickey Gall
UFC 302 BEST BET: Mickey Gall to Win (+320), Risk 0.5 Units to win 1.5
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Joselyne “La Pantera” Edwards (+160) vs Allin “Fiona” Perez (-192)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-270) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+210)
Edwards is not a flashy fighter, when she wins it’s a slog. All seven of her UFC fights have gone to a decision, two of them split (after she missed weight for both). Edwards was clean on the scale this week. She is 4-3 with one loss as a favorite and one win as an underdog.
Allin Perez may be one of the more underrated women’s bantamweights. She is 2-1 in the UFC with the loss coming in her debut vs Stephanie Egger. However she needs to take care of business vs. Edwards if she wants to keep rising the ranks in a division devoid of depth.
FIGHT WINNER: Allin Perez
UFC 302 BEST BET: Pass
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Andre “Mascote” Lima (-285) vs Mitch Raposo (+230)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-145) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+114)
Andre Lima was successful as a kickboxer before entering the UFC. He had one of the more absurd debuts as he won via his opponent being disqualified due to biting. He is on a fast track like most crossover athletes with a 1-0 record in the UFC, 1-0 in Contender series, and was 1-0 in LFA. The UFC loves exciting strikers in a Flyweight division always looking for fresh blood.
Mitch Raposo is making his UFC debut as the second replacement fighter for Lima. He is 9-1, but the loss came in his contender series fight, a loss via submission to Jake Hadley. He also lost a bout in the first round of The Ultimate Fighter vs. Liudvik Sholinian, who ultimately got a UFC chance but went 0-2. Seven of his nine victories have come inside the distance, and he has not fought to a decision since 2020.
Lima came in overweight which is never a good sign. This is Raposo’s third chance at the UFC and he cannot try to play this safe.
FIGHT WINNER: Andre Lima
UFC 302 BEST BET: Fight Does Not Go Distance (-105), Risk 1.05 Units to Win 1
