UFC Predictions for O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili:
VSiN Primetime producer Britton Hess offers his UFC 306 best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
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“Suga” Sean O’Malley (-125) vs. Merab “The Machine” Dvailshvili (+105)
Over 4.5 Rounds (-135) | Under 4.5 Rounds (+105)
In the UFC 306 main event, Sean O’Malley will be defending his UFC bantamweight belt for the second time. He won the belt with a decisive KO over former champion Aljamain Sterling. He then picked apart Chito Vera for five rounds in his first title defense. He now takes on Sterling’s training partner and best buddy, Merab Dvalishvili. Sean has deceptive power for a 135-pounder because he is rail thin. But he achieves devastating results through crisp technique, pinpoint accuracy, and leveraging his abnormally long limbs for the weight class. Overall, he is 18-1, 1 NC as a pro, 10-1, 1 NC in the UFC, and the one loss is worthy of at least a small asterisk. In 2020, Vera caught a nerve in O’Malley’s leg with a kick; his foot went limp and his leg went numb.Then Vera took top position and won via TKO. The kick from Vera was perfect, and he deserves all the credit for that win, but that method of victory is far from easily repeatable, and in the rematch, O’Malley was unquestionably the better fighter.
O’Malley is the top striker in the division, landing 7.64 significant strikes per minute with 61% accuracy over his 12 trips to the UFC octagon. 60% of his UFC wins have come via KO, and he has never been outstruck in a win. His takedown defense is 62%. When opponents can close the distance, he can be brought to the ground, and his best takedown defense is his striking offense. Additionally, he has landed a takedown in just one UFC fight, but that hasn’t been an obstacle to winning bouts.
O’Malley has received a performance bonus in nine of his 11 completed UFC fights. He is an entertainer, extremely popular, and is the type of fighter the promotion loves to promote. His tye-dyed hair, face tattoos, and social media antics may cause the casual observer to assume O’Malley is a joke and a gimmick, but that couldn’t be further from the truth. His wrestling defense has always been the question mark, but before fighting Vera, he fought two very good wrestlers in Aljamain Sterling and Peter Yan. He was north of a +200 underdog in both fights and was the one who had his hand raised in the end.
Merab Dvalishvili could have easily been N.F.L. (not for long) in the UFC. He began his UFC career by going 0-2, and he fights with a grappling-centric style, which isn’t the most marketable. However, on his third trip to the octagon, he got a win, and he hasn’t lost a fight since. Now 10-2 in the UFC cage. He is the epitome of a specialist. Every opponent knows exactly what Dvalishvili wants to do in the cage. He wants to charge forward, close the distance and secure takedowns, plural. He goes for position over submission and is willing to let opponents get back up to their feet so he can take them down again. He has double-digit takedowns in a third of his UFC fights and has 4+ takedowns in 10/12. He weaponizes his gas tank and knows that even if his opponents can resist his grappling early in the fight, they are unlikely to be able to keep the defense up. Overall, Dvalishvili’s takedown scored/received ratio is a mind-blowing 79:4, starkly contrasting to O’Malley’s 3:11.
To me, the difference in this fight is significant striking accuracy to the head, and Sean O’Malley lands 56% of the dome shots he attempts. Dvalishvilli cannot eat Sean’s strikes on the way in, and unfortunately, that is his only option to close the distance. Sean has scored six knockdowns to Merab’s one, and each round of this fight will begin on the feet. I have been on O’Malley as a favorite, and I’ve been on him as a dog. I have no reason to doubt his ability to get the job done versus an opponent who fights in such a telegraphed style.
FIGHT WINNER: Sean O’Malley
UFC 306 BET: Sean O’Malley (-125) vs. Dvalishvili, Risk 1.25 Units to Win 1
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Alexa Grasso (-135) vs. Valentina “Bullet” Shevchenko (+114)
Over 4.5 Rounds (-238) | Under 4.5 Rounds (+180)
Alexa Grasso won her belt the hard way, as a +500 underdog versus the women’s flyweight GOAT, Valentina Schevchenko. In that fight, Schevchenko was up two rounds to one on all three judges’ scorecards, but in the fourth round, Grasso turned the tables, sinking in the deepest rear naked choke you will ever see to shock the world. The women rematched six months later at last year’s Noche UFC event, and the result was a fairly controversial draw. All three judges had both fighters winning at least two rounds, with one scoring it for Shevchenko, another scoring it for Grasso, and the third judge scoring it a 47-47 draw, giving Grasso a 10-8 round in the fifth. Journalists were just as split as the judges, and there is no way around it. That fight was extremely close, and an argument for either fighter has merits. The only real sticking point is scoring the fifth round 10-8 for Grasso, ultimately determining the fight’s result. Personally, I had the fight going to the former champ 48-47.
Grasso was an unlikely champ, mainly because she was expected to be another footnote on Shevchenko’s hall of fame resume. Grasso was not ready for a championship on paper leading into the fight that she won. She was on a four-fight winning streak with a 7-3 UFC record, so she was trending in the right direction, but there was very little in the statistics to indicate she was ready to make the leap up to the championship level. But that’s why they lock the cage and let the fighters determine the result. Overall, she is a volume striker with below-average accuracy. Her striking defense is alright, but not elite, as she gets hit nearly four times per minute in the cage. That said, Schevchenko was the more accurate striker both times these women fought in the past, but on both occasions, Schevchenko left the cage without the strap.
There are only so many superlatives you can heap on Valentina Schevchenko, so instead, I will call attention to a few of her weak points. One is undeniable: she is now 36 years old. Generally, there is a rule that a fighter’s abilities usually decline after the age of 35. However, women’s divisions and the men’s heavyweights are exceptions to this trend. Additionally, Schevchenko’s four career losses have come to fighters with a reach advantage: Liz Carmouche (2010), Amanda Nunes (2016, 2017), and Grasso (2023). The reach advantage for Grasso is slight, an inch at best, but that’s how good Schevchenko is. Finding weaknesses takes some real digging. On paper, she is better than Grasso in virtually every significant metric: +9% striking accuracy, -1.74 significant strikes absorbed per minute, +.68 significant striking differential, +4% striking defense, +2.15 takedowns landed per 15 minutes of cage time, +18% takedown accuracy, +12% takedown defense rate.
I think Grasso caught Valentina being complacent in a fight she was winning the first time they fought, and I think Schevchenko earned the win in the second matchup. I know it is tough to fade a Mexican fighter at this celebration of Mexican heritage, but I cannot handicap a fight on the vibes. Schevchenko knows she should have won the first fight and thinks she won the second one. I assume she has finally found a game plan that will raise her hand at the end of the fight.
FIGHT WINNER: Valentina Schevchenko
UFC 306 BEST BET: Valentina Schevchenko (+115, Circa) vs Grasso, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.15
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Brian “T-City” Ortega (+160) vs Diego Lopes (-192)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-125) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-105)
Whenever I think of Brian Ortega, I think of the title of a classic ESPN 30 for 30 documentary, “The Best that Never Was.” Not because Ortega faced conditioning or attitude issues like Oklahoma running back Marcus Dupree, but because of the era in which he reached his prime. Men’s featherweight is always stacked with killers, and Ortega took out his share of legends on his way to the top of the pecking order, including Clay Guida, Renato Moicano, Cub Swanson, and Frankie Edgar. Overall, Ortega is 16-3, 1 NC as a professional, and of those losses, the only time he was truly outclassed was against Max Holloway.
Diego Lopes is awesome. His style is fantastic to watch, and he has proven on multiple occasions he will fight any opponent anywhere, any time. He got his UFC debut as a late replacement opponent for the (still) undefeated Movsar Evloev. Lopes did not get his hand raised, but he did land some shots and threatened with some submissions on his way to winning a round on two of three judges’ scorecards. He won fans by making the fight interesting despite being a +600 underdog. It should be noted that hardcore fans were already familiar with Lopes because he did have a Contender Series decision loss to the now surging Joanderson Brito.
This fight comes down to one thing—trust. I trust Ortega to perform to the best of his ability, especially with two months to recover from the ailment that plagued him in June. I have not seen Lopes enter a camp and defeat a top five opponent. If he gets in grappling exchanges he will be in trouble. He will have a height and reach advantage, but Ortega is used to that. For me, the price is just too high. I have Ortega as a favorite in this fight. I am betting as such.
FIGHT WINNER: Brian Ortega
UFC 306 BEST BET: Brian Ortega (+170, Wynn), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.7
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Daniel “Golden Boy” Zellhuber (-218) vs. Esteban Ribovics (+180)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-220) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+170)
Daniel Zellhuber has looked excellent in the cage and is rightfully one of the more hyped up prospects in the lightweight division. He lands nearly six significant strikes per minute while avoiding 56% of those coming back his way. He is 25 years old and 15-1 as a professional with the one loss coming to the dominant wrestler Trey Ogden. He is 3-1 in the UFC with one submission finish, despite being more known as a KO artist on the regional scene. He has been the favorite in all of his UFC fights and the favorite in his Contender Series win versus the dangerous Lucas Almeida.
Esteban Ribovics is 28 and 13-1 as a professional fighter. Like his opponent, he lost his UFC debut to a tough wrestler in Loik Radzhabov, but took care of business in his next two fights, including a first round head kick KO versus Terrance McKinney in May. On paper, he actually lands more strikes per minute than Zellhuber, has an 11% better accuracy rate, and is also a more adept grappler. That said, his strength of schedule is a bit less impressive than that of his opponent here. Zellhuber controls the fight because he has a long frame with a 77” reach. Ribovics is going to need to close the distance if he wants to win this one which will be difficult as he is three inches shorter, and has an eight-inch shorter reach.
Daniel Zellhuber does things the way they are taught. Ribovics is much more of a backyard brawler. He is still skilled, but he is more comfortable when things get dirty. I think that this fight is much closer than the current lines but I am not quite ready to take the leap on this dog.
FIGHT WINNER: Daniel Zellhuber
UFC 306 BEST BET: Pass
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Ronaldo “Lazy Boy” Rodriguez (-166) vs. Ode “The Jamaican Sensation” Osborne (+140)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+100) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-130)
Ronaldo Rodriguez has been talking a ton during fight week and has managed to build some hype and anticipation for a fight that could have easily been lost on such a high profile card. The outbursts are even more surprising because he is by no means a household name and has little currency in this organization. The 25-year-old flyweight is 16-2, but just 1-0 in the UFC and 0-1 in Contender Series (lost to Jerome Rivera). His debut was against Denys Bondar, and he was a replacement opponent. Rodriguez won via rear naked choke with just one second remaining in the second round after losing round 1 on all three judges’ scorecards. The statistical tale of the tape for Rodriguez is far from great, but the sample size is also small so his terrible 2.0 significant strikes landed per minute can perhaps be overlooked.
Ode Osbourne is 32 and 4-5 in the UFC, with losses in three of his last four fights. His win came via split decision, and his losses all came inside the distance. The two most recent have come via rear naked choke. Strength of schedule, physical attributes, and offensive striking are all on Osbourne’s side, but his grappling deficiency really calls his ability to win this fight into question.
Rodriguez is hyped up, and I believe him when he says he is going to be doing everything he can to cause violence in the cage. On the other side, Osbourne can be finished, but he also can end nights with his hands. I think Osbourne is past the peak of his power as a UFC flyweight, but I also think it is too soon to back Rodriguez versus a dangerous veteran.
FIGHT WINNER: Ronaldo Rodriguez
UFC 306 BEST BET: Under 2.5 Rounds (-125), Risk 1.25 Units to Win 1
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Irene Aldana (-108) vs. Norma “The Immortal” Dumont (-112)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-500) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+340)
UFC is one of the few sports where the record means very little when it comes to gauging a fighter’s ability. Irene Aldana is 15-7 as a professional fighter, and 8-5 in the UFC. Norma Dumont is 11-2, 7-2 in the UFC. Four of Aldana’s five UFC losses came to champions or opponents that fought for belts. Both of Norma Dumont’s losses came up a weight class at women’s featherweight. She missed weight in one of those bouts, and was KO’d in the first round in the other. I bring all this up to say that I actually like Aldana’s record more than Dumont’s despite it being much less clean. She has always been a professional and has fought virtually every top bantamweight in the division. Both fighters looked good in their last fights, but Aldana won a decision versus Karol Rosa, Dumont grappled to a victory versus the 39 year old Germaine de Radamie who was coming off of a 3.5-year layoff.
Aldana lands way more strikes, has much more power, and will have a slight height and reach advantage. Aldana is a much better defensive fighter and is very hard to hit. She is more apt to turn to wrestling than her opponent and she is much more interested in position than submission. The problem for Aldana is that she has had trouble winning versus opponents who commit to the takedown. Dumont has shown a willingness to enact this game plan multiple times.
FIGHT WINNER: Irene Aldana
UFC 306 BEST BET: Pass
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Manuel “El Loco” Torres (-125) vs. Ignacio “La Jaula” Bahamondes (+105)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-125) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-105)
Manuel Torres is another Mexican prospect highlighting this celebration of Mexican independence day. He is 29 years old, 15-2, and 3-0 in the UFC with three first round finishes. He has been a favorite in all of his fights in the organization but nothing north of -200. He also won via first round knockout in Contender Series. He has seven knockout victories, seven submission victories,and just one win via decision. Both of his losses have been due to submission in lesser organizations in 2018 and 2019.
Ignacio Bahamondes is no stranger to putting on a show. The 27 year old is 15-5 with a 4-2 UFC record. Three of his four wins in the cage have come via finish, including a wheel kick knockout of Roosevelt Roberts in 2021 that still makes the rounds in YouTube highlight packages. He was active in April and won via first-round head kick. He is not perfect in the UFC, but he lost to the veteran John Makdessi in his UFC debut via split decision. He also lost to Ludovit Klein who is still undefeated after moving to the UFC’s lightweight division.
This fight has had some of the more dramatic line movements on the card. It opened with Bahamondes as a -158 favorite and now the favorites have flipped. I understand why the bookmakers favored the veteran on open, but I also see the excitement around Torres’ potential. I think the explosive striking style of both of these fighters means a finish is imminent, and I also think that if this fight gets to the ground it is just a matter of time before Torres finds the submission. That said, Bahamondes has an 85% takedown defense rate but some of those are empty calories versus desperate fighters.
FIGHT WINNER: Manuel Torres
UFC 306 BEST BET: Torres via submission (+440, FanDuel), Risk 1 Unit to win 4.4
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Yazmin Jauregui (-575) vs. Ketlen “Esquentadinha” Souza (+425)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-270) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+200)
Ketlen Souza is 1-1 in the UFC, she lost as a dog to Karine Silva in her debut, then dismantled an undersized Marnic Mann in April as a -400 favorite. Now she is on the wrong side of the long odds versus an emerging Mexican prospect in Yazmin Jauregui. Juaregui is 3-1 in the UFC, with the loss coming via a surprise first-round KO against Denise Gomes as -380 favorite. She rebounded and took care of business versus Sam Hughes. Jauregui is still just 25 years old and has a record worth mentioning at 11-1. Souza is 30 and being overlooked in this spot. She is a more accurate striker and harder to hit, but don’t be fooled by the stats because her Mann matchup skews them. Jauregui should win this one but the odds make it unappetizing to bet.
FIGHT WINNER: Yazmin Jauregui
UFC 306 BEST BET: Pass
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Edgar “Puro Chicali” Chairez (+205) vs. Joshua “The Fearless” Van (-250)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-175) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+135)
Joshua Van’s last fight was a war, and took place just two months ago on July 13th. He was knocked out in the third round by Charles Johnson (not a KO artist). He is only 22 years old, so if anyone can recover, it is this young prospect. Whichever coach, agent, manager, or family member signed up on this fight needs to reevaluate their priorities. The type of brain trauma a fighter receives when being knocked out by another trained combatant does not disappear in 60 days. And moreover, the KO loss was not a single clean strike. It was the result of numerous strikes piling up. He ate 43 significant head strikes before the 44th put him down. This will also be his third fight of 2024. Needless to say, I do not like this situation for a 10-2 prospect who has more than a decade of fight checks in his future if he manages his career correctly.
The good news for Joshua Van is that Edgar Chairez is far from an exciting power puncher. He is a 38-year-old journeyman who is 1-1, 1 NC in the UFC. He has not secured a knockout since fighting in small regional promotions in 2022 and prior. He does have a knockdown in the UFC which may matter here. His biggest advantage will be on the ground but Van’s takedown defense has largely been solid in his UFC tenure.
FIGHT Winner: Edgar Chairez
UFC 306 BEST BET: Edgar Chairez (+215, Circa) vs Van, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.15
UFC 306 BEST BET: Edgar Chairez to Win Inside the Distance (+600, FanDuel), Risk 1 Unit to Win 6 Units
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Raul “El Niño Problema” Rosas Jr (-1000) vs. Qileng “The Mongolian Murderer” Aori (+650)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-105) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-125)
Raul Rosas Jr is the youngest fighter on the UFC roster, and this will be his sixth fight for the promotion. He won a contender series fight, and is now 3-1 as a fully fledged UFC fighter. All three of his wins have come via finish, two via sub, and one via ground and pound. He did lose a unanimous decision to known hype killer Christian Rodriguez but outside of that he has been a force on the ground. His striking can be a liability but to this point he has found a way to get the fight where he wants it more often than not.
Aori is a seven-fight UFC veteran with a 3-3, 1 NC record. He is twelve years his opponent’s senior and will have an advantage in striking exchanges. That said his takedown defense is not good enough, and his power is good, but not great. He has never been submitted in the UFC, but there is a first time for everything.
FIGHT WINNER: Raul Rosas Jr
UFC 306 BEST BET: Rosas Jr to win via 1st/2nd Round Sub (-115, FanDuel), Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1
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UFC 306 BEST BETS
– Sean O’Malley (-125) vs. Dvalishvili, Risk 1.25 Units to Win 1
– Valentina Schevchenko (+115, Circa) vs. Grasso, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.15
– Brian Ortega (+170, Wynn), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.7
– Rodriguez/Osbourne Under 2.5 Rounds (-125), Risk 1.25 Units to Win 1
– Torres via submission (+440, FanDuel) vs. Bahamondes, Risk 1 Unit to win 4.4
– Edgar Chairez (+215, Circa) vs. Van, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.15
– Chairez to Win ITD (+600, FanDuel) vs. Van, Risk 1 Unit to Win 6 Units
– Rosas 1st/2nd Round Sub (-115, FanDuel) vs. Aori, Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1
