UFC 306 Predictions:
This week, the UFC salutes Mexican fight heritage with its Noche UFC 306 production. I am overjoyed that this event is being produced and packaged in honor of the Mexican fighter.
It was at the University of Arizona in the late 70s, during the heyday of ABC’s Wide World of Sports, when Howard Cosell would arrive in the ‘Old Pueblo’ to broadcast regularly televised boxing matches, almost all of which I attended.
Attending those fights, I observed and absorbed the passion of the Mexican fight fans and the valor, guts, toughness, and never-quit attitude of the proud Mexican fighter, male or female.
This Noche event features ten MMA bouts with athletes all weighing 155 pounds and lighter. There are Mexican athletes featured in all, but the main event and the Sphere will feature a large 30-foot Octagon.
Last week, we invested in the well-rounded abilities of Israeli athlete Yanal Ashmouz to add another 1.05u to 2024 profitability, which stands at 22-17 +10.35u. Let’s find another winning position in this Noche UFC 306 event!
Sean O’Malley (Champion) -130 vs. Merab Dvalishvili +110
Bantamweight (135 pounds) Championship
Champion O’Malley has gone from a young, skinny, precision striker with physical characteristics advantageous to MMA success to a structured, mature, skilled, well-versed, and complete mixed martial artist. O’Malley has evolved mentally, physically, and within the realm of MMA.
He’s fast, precise and swelling with the confidence that comes from winning championships. He’s fueled his momentum from the hidden, tireless work he’s completed that no fan sees.
Those who claim O’Malley is not the wrestler/grappler that Dvalishvili is may be correct. However, O’Malley’s long frame and the grappling acumen he has acquired over the last seven years or so competing with Javier Mendes and being tutored by coach Tim Welch have made him confident in his ability to compete against Dvalishvili types. More importantly, to do so with the confidence that the opponent is unaware of this cultivated and stealth grappling ability. O’Malley is a true and equipped mixed martial artist.
Georgian Dvalishvili is your sawed-off shotgun Dagestani chain wrestler who can compete for hours without showing any effects of tiring. That said, in this matchup, he is giving away massive advantages in age, height, and limb reach to the champion.
Dvalishvili’s best weapon is his unrelenting forward wrestling pressure. The Dagestani and the tight clan he trains with do not allow opponents to breathe, think, or act; they are constantly moving forward to press, smother, and engage.
O’Malley wants to set opponents up for a finish with his ability to move and create striking angles from distance which allow him to carve opponents trying to gain the inside.
Dvalishvili plays forward pressure only. By that, I mean he has one point of focus in fights—to immediately press upon the opponent, take said opponent against the cage, transition down to the mat, and from top control, open up the faucet and rain never-ending ground and pound.
O’Malley requires space to flow, while Dvalishvili prefers to be adhered together with any opponent in a straitjacket so he may grind unrelentingly until the opponent wilts.
Both of these athletes have vied against the division’s elite, and both belong in this fight. However, only one will walk away with the Bantamweight belt on Saturday night.
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds Over -154*
Many fight pundits feel the longer the fight goes, the more Dvalishvili will have a chance to take Suga deep and sap him of his strength. The O’Malley camp believes that he’ll be in a position to catch Dvalishvili with a laser right hand sometime in this fight as the Georgian attempts to gain inside position.
It’s my judgment that this fight will be an epic stylistic confrontation. At this point, those who wish to side with O’Malley should jump him now. His price will only go up, while Dvalishvili maniacs should hold tight and gain the best possible underdog price on the Tasmanian Devil.
Alexa Grasso (Champion) -130 vs. Valentina Shevchenko +110
Women’s Flyweight (125 pounds) Championship
This is the trilogy fight for these ladies. Former Champion Shevchenko was at one time considered (at least by me) as the all-time pound-for-pound women’s MMA GOAT.
Yes, even over Amanda Nunes. However, that was when Shevchenko was competing in her early thirties. Now she’s 36 and seems to be embracing a world outside of fighting. Shevchenko has discovered how and what opportunities exist for an individual with riches and wherewithal.
Shevchenko has shown a slight ebb in her effectiveness for a couple of fights now. Intertwined with that slight erosion of skill has been the evolution of seeing Valentina out on the town and actually enjoying life to an extent.
While she’s surely earned that right, I can only relay what Muhammad Ali’s trainer and confidant, Angelo Dundee, taught me years ago. Dundee would warn that once a fighter who started with little to nothing earns the reputation and rich/notoriety they’ve longed for from their fighting success, that notoriety, money, and the distractions coming from the public accolades corrode that (or any) fighter’s skills. Yes, success erodes and dulls the focus, drive, and desire of championship-level fighters.
Shevchenko’s mind knows she can overcome almost any obstacle because previously, she has always been able to do it. However, she’s now 36 and coming off two tough five-round battles against Grasso, the current champion.
Shevchenko is well-rounded, highly intelligent and keenly driven. In this fight, she’ll put all she has and has known out there in order to recapture the title.
For Grasso, she’s had months to prepare for this trilogy challenge to be held on the night the UFC honors Mexican fighters, and she’ll be fighting for her heritage and her title.
In both previous fights, Grasso utilized speed, timing, and a specific plan of attack for success. In each case, those skills were enough to earn her the title.
Grasso and camp feel they have the formula to defeat the unbeatable ‘Bullet’ Valentina, but as they enter the cage for this fight, both camps understand that little separates these two world-class fighters.
The difference in this third fight may be the pressure Grasso will carry into the cage. Not only is she fighting the former champion, but the Sphere will be filled with Mexican fight enthusiasts, and each one will be yearning to see the Mexicans dominate. So yes, there is a different form of pressure on Grasso entering this trilogy.
Once the bell rings for this bout, I look for Shevchenko to immediately try to bully Grasso and back her up. Grasso will need to face the fire, and as in the other bouts these two have competed in, she’ll realize that it’s in her best interest to bully the bully!
In fact, Grasso taking this fight to Shevchenko seems a great way to instill doubt immediately into the Russian’s mind and let her know from the opening bell that the ‘orgullo de los Mexicanos’ or Mexican pride will inspire Grasso in her attempt to retain her title, retain her reputation and solidify her position in flyweight history, let alone of the many great Mexican fighters throughout history.
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds Over -200
I have strong thoughts on this trilogy fight and will have investments into this fight come Friday.
Manuel Torres -120 vs. Ignacio Bahamondes +100
Lightweight (155 pounds)
Fight of the night! Chilean fighter Bahamondes is unusually tall at 6-foot-3, and he sports a 75-inch reach, allowing him advantage in those areas in almost any fight he takes in this division.
He’s primarily a distance striker who throws in flurries. He lands 7.15 significant strikes per minute and only accepts 4.38. Bahamondes striking effectiveness accumulates over rounds as opposed to having profuse, one-punch KO power. He moves with fluidity and is gifted defensively.
Bahamondes is 5-2 in the UFC, with solid wins and a couple of losses to athletes who can forge forward, cut the cage, and corner Bahamondes, thus removing his greatest asset, his distance.
From the inside or pressed against the fence and later in fights, the long, tall Bahamondes can begin to slow down, and it’s here where he is vulnerable. Can it be that the massive weight cut affects Bahamondes later in fights? I believe so.
Mexican fighter Manuel Torres is giving up height and reach in this brawl, but he is a more well-rounded mixed martial artist. Torres possesses abundant KO power coupled with a deft ability to submit. It is Torres’s aggressiveness, pressure, power strikes/kicks, and incredible grappling ability that have allowed him to earn a 3-0 tally in the UFC.
Torres’s striking is high output: He lands 8.14 significant strikes per minute while giving up only 3.16. As importantly, his 3.26 takedowns per fifteen minutes are the statistic that Bahamondes and camp will be trying to quell. It is Torres’ ability to mix up his attack that makes him the more dangerous fighter in this matchup.
UFC 306 Best Bet: Torres -120
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds Pick ’em
UFC 306 Best Bet: Heavy lean to Over
Friday mid-day PT, the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops with my up-to-the-minute UFC 306 predictions. Access the ‘Bout Business Podcast at GambLou.com. Enjoy the tribute to Mexican heritage and fighting!
