UFC 307 Predictions for Pereira vs. Rountree:
VSiN Primetime producer Britton Hess offers his UFC 307 best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
BEST BETS HISTORY
Last Week: 2-5 (-3.5 Units, -36.46% ROI)
Article History: 86-125 (-24.44 Units, -10.48% ROI)
Since 2020: 638-589 (+193.71 Units, 11.67% ROI)
PICK EM HISTORY
Last Week: 9-5 (64.29%)
Article History: 179-137 (56.65%)
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Alex “Paotan” Perreira (-455) vs Khalil “War Horse” Rountree Jr (+350)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-135) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+105)
I have written about Alex Perreira’s MMA story numerous times this year because he is more active than virtually any other fighter on the roster. When he takes the cage in Salt Lake City, it will be his sixth bout since April 2023. All but one of those fights has been for a title belt. The most recent four fights have all taken place in the light heavyweight division, and he has won the most recent three via knockout. His left hook is special, and his striking is the most dangerous in the organization. He has knocked out four UFC champions in two weight classes: Jiri Prochazka (x2), Jamahal Hill, Israel Adesanya, and Sean Strickland. Not bad for a guy who was initially considered a gimmick and a plant for a potential “money” fight versus Israel Adesanya. Simply put, Pereira is the biggest name in MMA right now. He is on more fight cards than anyone, and his finish rate versus champion-caliber competition is unmatched.
On paper, Pereira’s 63% significant strike accuracy sticks out, given that most of his career has been against the absolute best of the best. And given that he came to this sport from kickboxing, his 70% takedown defense rate is impressive. But make no mistake, his best takedown defense is his striking offense. Most opponents are unconscious via left hook before they can close the distance. And speaking of controlling distance, Pereira should be comfortable at range in this fight. He has a three-inch reach advantage (79” vs 76”) and a three-inch height advantage (6’4” vs 6’1”).
Khalil Rountree Jr. was given this opportunity because he made a breakthrough and simply stopped losing fights. He is 5-0 dating back to September 2021, and he has won four of his last five via knockout. His power is no joke, and his Muay Thai technique has been good enough to cause problems for kickboxers such as Dustin Jacoby. In the cage, he is like a coiled snake ready to strike, and his opponents treat him accordingly. One punch, one kick, one elbow, he really can sleep any opponent who gets impatient or simply forgets what type of weapons are on the other side of the cage.
Given that Rountree’s power generally dictates the pace and space of his fights, most opponents use a defense-first strategy, and those who don’t aren’t in the fight for long. That said, his striking accuracy is a bit of a red flag. In his five-fight win streak, he has only landed over 50% of his significant strikes once. And that fight was over quickly, just 2:40 into round one. Additionally, his defense is wanting, as he only avoids half of the strikes his opponents throw.
I would love to make the case for Rountree to be a live dog in this scenario. But outside of the cliche “puncher’s chance,” I just don’t see it. His power is good, but not as good as Pereira’s. His kickboxing is good, but not as good as Pereira’s. And his chin is good, just not as good as Pereira’s. The one big advantage Rountree has is his age. He is three years younger than Pereira, but at age 34, he is not exactly youthful and exuberant.
FIGHT WINNER: Alex Pereira
UFC 307 BEST BET: Alex Pereira Wins via KO in Rounds 1 or 2 (+100), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1
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Raquel “Rocky” Pennington (-162) vs Julianna “Venezuelan Vixen” Pena (+136)
Over 4.5 Rounds (-270) | Under 4.5 Rounds (+200)
Raquel Pennington took the long road to winning the women’s bantamweight championship. She is an 18-fight UFC veteran who joined the UFC roster in 2014. Her career began 1-2, but then she put together a four-fight win streak and got her first chance to wear the gold belt. Amanda Nunes knocked her out in the fifth round, and she proceeded to lose two of her next three fights. But she was not dismayed; she kept the faith and won five fights in a row. She got a shot at the vacant women’s bantamweight belt versus Mayra Bueno Silva in January and got her hand raised with a dominant decision performance. Stylistically, Pennington is a fairly safe fighter and opts for position over submission in grappling exchanges. Three of her 10 UFC victories have come via submission, and the rest went to the scorecards. Pennington was the underdog in her last two fights, but she is 7-0 in the UFC as a betting favorite.
Julianna Pena shocked the world when she briefly wore the women’s bantamweight belt from December 2022 to July 2023. She upset Amanda Nunes via rear naked choke as a +700 underdog to take the strap. The rematch didn’t go her way, and Nunes won a one-sided decision. It should be noted that heading into the first fight with Nunes, Pena was 2-2 in her previous two fights, so she wasn’t really on anyone’s list of future contenders. Overall she is 7-3 in the UFC, and she has been the underdog in six of her fights. She has a 3-3 record in that role. Pena has not been active since she lost the belt 15 months ago.
On paper, Pennington has better striking offense and defense. Pena edges ahead in offensive grappling, but Pennington’s grappling defense grades out higher. This is a five-round fight, and sweating out these 25-minute affairs to go the distance is a bit unnerving. That said, I do not see much of a finish threat here.
FIGHT WINNER: Raquel Pennington
UFC 307 BET: Raquel Pennington (-162) vs Pena, Risk 1.62 Units to Win
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Jose “Junior” Aldo (+120) vs. Mario Bautista (-142)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-330) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+240)
Jose Aldo is a UFC Hall of Famer and one of the most beloved athletes on the roster. It has been a long time since he last wore the featherweight strap (and famously lost it to Conor McGregor in 2015). But for the past five years, he has been holding it down in the UFC’s bantamweight division. He is now 38 years old and still possesses the skills to beat elite fighters. He is 4-1 in his last five fights, with all four of those victories coming via decision (his loss was via decision as well). Like most fighters fighting deep into their 30s, Aldo has elite defense. When he lost a decision to the current champ, Merab Dvalishvili, he stuffed double-digit takedown attempts. His boxing is still elite, and he completely shut down the offense of the surging Jonathan Martinez in his last fight.
Mario Bautista will be stepping into the cage with a far more famous, beloved, and experienced fighter than himself, but still, he is the betting favorite. Age is relevant to these odds; Aldo is squarely past the 35-year-old performance threshold, and Bautista is just 31. Additionally, Bautista has been running through opponents in his last six fights. He has three decisions and three submissions in his current winning streak. He has mostly been a big favorite as of late, but simply entering the cage as the bookmakers’ pick does not guarantee success and he should be credited for taking care of business. Additionally, his 10-fight UFC record of 8-2 proves he isn’t short on experience, and his 5.69 significant strikes landed per minute figure is nothing to scoff at.
At the end of the day, my biggest issue with the odds on this fight is that Bautista has fought essentially no one. The guys Bautista has defeated on his current win streak are more likely to share the cage with Aldo at a promotional fan event than in an actual UFC fight. Aldo is definitely old, but he didn’t look like that when he fought earlier this year. I should also note that the UFC did change their anti-doping procedures earlier this year so take this information as you wish.
FIGHT WINNER: Jose Aldo
UFC 307 BEST BET: Jose Aldo (+120) vs Bautista, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.2
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Ketlen “Fenomeno” Vieira (+750) vs Kayla Harrison (-1200)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-160) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+124)
Ketlen Vieira has been in the UFC for 11 fights and has put together an 8-3 record, with all three losses coming versus high-level opposition. She has won three of her last four fights, and the loss came via a split decision versus Raquel Pennington. I think it is safe to assume that if she upsets Harrison and Pennington defends her belt, the next title shot will go to Vieira. I am sure Vieira is very aware of what’s at stake in this fight. That said, reaching that title fight is easier said than done versus an opponent like Harrison. Additionally, despite having a very solid record, Vieira’s fight style leaves a lot to be desired. Nine of her eleven UFC fights have reached the scorecards. Like most veterans, her defensive metrics in both striking and grappling outpace her offensive stats.
Kayla Harrison is a former PFL champion and world-class Judoka. She is 1-0 in the UFC after debuting at UFC 300 against former champion Holly Holm. There is no way to say it nicely. Harrison embarrassed the veteran and finished her via rear naked choke early in the second round. That was Holm’s second career submission loss and first since 2016. The ground advantage was a given, and Harrison used it to create a massive striking advantage, landing 52 significant strikes to Holm’s 2. On paper, it is hard to compare her UFC stats between Harrison and Vieira because Harrison’s numbers are skewed by her one UFC fight being such a runaway. That said, Harrison’s strengths and style are well known. She is going to try to overpower her opponent, get this fight to the mat, and keep it there while inflicting as much damage as possible.
Vieira is a tough fighter with good takedown defense. Harrison is on a different level and came to the UFC for two reasons: money and the belt. She wants to beat Vieira, beat Pennington, and draw Nunes out of retirement for the payday. And I expect her to do just that.
FIGHT WINNER: Kayla Harrison
UFC 307 BEST BET: Kayla Harrison to Win Inside the Distance (+110), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.1
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Roman “The Caucasian” Dolidze (+136) vs Kevin “Trailblazer” Holland (-162)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-210) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+160)
Roman Dolidze is a bit of an enigma in the middleweight division. He made his name with three wins inside the distance wins in a row as a betting underdog in 2022. He then was a part of two of the more interesting decisions in recent memory. He was robbed in London, receiving a loss on the card to Marvin Vettori in 2023. He then was outclassed by Nassourdine Imavov in the main event of a Fight Night card this past February. That said, the official result was puzzlingly a majority decision, and he was somehow just a few strikes landed away from winning the fight. There is another wrinkle in his past, which is that he has successfully fought at two different weight classes. As a middleweight, he is 4-3 in the UFC. As a light heavyweight, he is 3-0. He won as a light heavyweight in June and is on a two-fight losing streak as a middleweight. That said, both of those middleweight bouts had a tinge of controversy, and there is a not so alternate reality where Dolidze is on a seven-fight win streak.
Kevin Holland is also a two-weight-class fighter, although he goes from middleweight down to welterweight. Holland is one of the more popular fighters in the organization because he is one of the more active fighters, with 15 cage appearances since 2020. His record isn’t pristine, but he is an entertainer, and the fans know they will see action every time his name is on the fight poster. He is 3-4 in his last seven fights. All three wins have come inside the distance and ten of his 13 career UFC wins have been decided before the final bell. Strikes, submissions, it doesn’t matter; Kevin Holland is an equal-opportunity finisher.
Roman Dolidze is an extremely strong grappler who surprises opponents with his striking power. His hands aren’t the fastest, and he isn’t a BJJ black belt. His finishes come from raw strength and athleticism. Kevin Holland, on the other hand, has freakish length, with his 81” reach accompanying his 6’3” frame. He uses those long limbs to generate knockout power and wrap up necks. The fact that this fight is a favorite to go the distance is a bit strange due to both of these men’s impressive finish rates in their wins. But Dolidze is the underdog, and he has never been finished in the cage.
FIGHT WINNER: Roman Dolidze
UFC 307 BEST BET: Fight Does Not Go The Distance (+145), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.45
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Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson (+185) vs Joaquin “New Mansa” Buckley (-225)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-220) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+170)
Stephen Thompson is over the hill. There is no way around it. The karate master is 41 years old and nowhere near the fighter he was when he joined the UFC roster 12 years ago. That being said, this version of Wonderboy Thompson is better than the vast majority of welterweights on the UFC roster. He is 3-3 in his last six fights. All three wins are versus established fighters: Kevin Holland, Geoff Neal, and Vicente Luque. And the three losses include the cream of the crop, Shavkat Rakhmonov, who will likely be competing for a belt in the next 12 months, Belal Muhammad, who is the current champion, and Gilbert Burns, who is a former title challenger. Thompson still has elite striking skills and can do damage to end fights. Maybe it doesn’t look quite as pretty or fast as it did a decade ago, but he is still effective.
Joaquin Buckley is a fighter that bounced around weight classes early in his UFC career. Since moving down to welterweight, he is 4-0 with four very solid wins. He has one-punch knockout power and a grappling game that is just good enough for opponents to have to worry about. He is a short and compact fighter who unloads on his opponents like a coiled spring. Additionally, he is just 30 years old despite already having 25 professional fights, 13 of which have occurred in the UFC.
Striking volume favors Joaquin Buckley. Accuracy is in Thompson’s corner. Defensively, the guys are similar, but Buckley actually has a very slight edge based on raw numbers regarding strikes absorbed and percent of strikes defended. The key to this fight will likely be grappling and grappling defense. If Buckley can find takedowns, he will find victory. If he is sloppy defensively, he will get finished.
FIGHT WINNER: Joaquin Buckley
UFC 307 BEST BET: Pass
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Marina Rodriguez (+150) vs Iasmin Lucindo (-180)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-345) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+250)
Marina Rodriguez is in need of a win. Just 1-3 in her last four fights, after beginning her UFC career 6-1-2, she must perform in this spot. However, that is easier said than done. Despite having two KO victories in the organization, she really is not a power puncher, and she has never finished an opponent via submission. Additionally, having two draws on your resume isn’t exactly something to write home about.
Iasmin Lucindo lost her UFC debut but has since won three fights in a row. In all three of those wins, she was a favorite of greater than -180, and when it comes to strength of schedule, her level of competition does not touch the level Rodriguez has seen. Rodriguez is the superior striker, and Lucindo has much more ability to grind out a wrestling match. Additionally, Lucindo has outstanding striking defense, albeit against less-than-impressive strikers.
I am leaning toward the veteran here. She has fought former champions and challengers, and Lucindo’s past opponents are essentially all early prelim fodder. Give me Rodriguez in the “need it” spot.
FIGHT WINNER: Marina Rodriguez
UFC 307 BEST BET: Marina Rodriguez (+150) vs Lucindo, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.5
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Austin “Thud” Hubbard (+110) vs Alexander “The Great Ape” Hernandez (-130)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-238) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+180)
Despite the nickname, Austin “Thud” Hubbard does not have much thud on his punches. He is a decision machine who outwills his opponents in his wins, and gets out-physicaled in his losses. His opponent, Alexander Hernandez, is a physical specimen with an excellent UFC highlight package. But at this point, Hernandez has more disappointing losses on his record than the highlights he banked early in his career. He is just 1-5 in his last four fights and just 4-7 since 2019. Four of those losses have come as a betting favorite, and he hasn’t won a fight lined at around a pick ’em since 2018.
Hubbard has heart and will. He was in the UFC once before. Got cut, then had to work his way back up through The Ultimate Fighter TV show. He has since gone 1-1 in the organization and is not taking this spot lightly. Meanwhile, Hernandez has not looked good in a half-decade and he still keeps collecting a check. Give me the fighter with the edge. Give me Hubbard.
FIGHT Winner: Austin Hubbard
UFC 307 BEST BET: Austin Hubbard (+110) vs Hernandez, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.1
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Cesar “Cesinha” Almeida (-395) vs Ihor “Duelist” Potieria (+310)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-110) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-110)
In the UFC’s perfect world, Cesar Almeida would be Alex Pereira’s Alex Pereira…. Pereira was brought into the organization to set up a big fight with Izzy Adesanya because of their pre-existing kickboxing rivalry. Almeida also has a pre-existing kickboxing rivalry with Pereira. But unfortunately for the UFC’s pocketbook, Almeida flopped after his debut KO win. He was put on the ground with a grappling-heavy attack by Roman Kopylov and unceremoniously lost a decision. There is bad grappling, and there is clueless grappling. Almeida’s grappling defense is in the second category, and I think it’s safe to say he did not train on the ground at all in anticipation of his first two UFC fights. That said, the Kopylov fight was ultimately a split decision, and he did do damage in the moments the fight was on the feet.
Ihor Potieria is on the wrong side of many UFC fighters’ highlight reels. He is 2-4 in the UFC, and all four losses have come via finish. That said, he won via KO versus Shogun Rua as a light heavyweight and is 1-1 as a middleweight. He has seven submission wins on his record from the regional scene and is an all-action fighter. He is dangerous, and in his decision win versus Robert Bryczek, he showed more fight IQ than he had ever previously displayed in the octagon.
This is going to be a firefight as long as Potieria doesn’t turn into a wrestler. Generally, he is impatient and embraces the kill-or-be-killed mentality. On the other side, Almeida’s striking is actually spectacular and any defensive holes by his opponents on the feet mean the night is over in an instant.
FIGHT WINNER: Cesar Almeida
UFC 307 BEST BET: Cesar Almeida to win via KO in Round 1 or 2 (-110), Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1
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Ryan “Superman” Spann (-245) vs Ovince “OSP” Saint Preux (+200)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-105) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-125)
Ryan Spann was popping for a moment; he had won three of four fights, all in round 1, and he was on the fast track to fame and fortune. Then he hit a wall, starting with a submission loss to Nikita Krylov, a split dec loss to Anthony Smith, and then a KO loss to Bogdan Guskov. Who will we see at UFC 307? The unstoppable finishing force, or the guy who is defensively weak and gasses out early?
Ovince Saint Preux is one of the most veteran fighters in the organization at this point. He is 41 and has been fighting under the UFC banner since 2013. He is 2-3 in his last three fights dating back to 2022. His loss was a first-minute KO loss, but he defeated Kennedy Nzechukwu via split decision as a +500 underdog in March of this year.
I can’t put money on this fight. I don’t know where Spann’s mindset is, and I don’t trust a 41-year-old who’s last three losses have come via knockout.
FIGHT WINNER: Ovince Saint Preux
UFC 307 BEST BET: Pass
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Carla “Cookie Monster” Esparza (+150) vs Tecia “The Tiny Tornado” Pennington (-180)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-660) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+420)
Carla Esparza is a The Ultimate Fighter veteran and also a two-time women’s strawweight champion. Her trophy case is about as good as it gets in this sport. That said, she was finished in dramatic fashion in her most recent title defense as Weili Zhang put her in a crucifix. Esparza has been inactive since 2022. And has recently had a child. This is her “retirement bout.” Maybe she has mom strength, or maybe she has moved past the fight game.
Tecia Pennington is married to the woman fighting in the co-main event of this card, so I am sure she had an intense camp. Her two most recent fights have been split decision losses to very good fighters in Tabatha Ricci and Mackenzie Dern. Before that, she was on a three-fight win streak that included a decision over Angela Hill. It should also be noted that these women first fought in 2014 on The Ultimate Fighter TV show, Esparza won that bout via majority decision.
This is a tough one to call. Pennington needs the win, Esparza wants to leave the game with a win. If she can get her wrestling going, she will win via decision. But Pennington’s high-volume striking has the potential to win the day.
FIGHT WINNER: Tecia Pennington
UFC 307 BEST BET: Pass
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Court “The Crusher” McGee (+154) vs Tim “The Dirty Bird” Means (-185)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-195) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+150)
It’s a rare spot when both fighters are 39 or older, both have been on the roster for 12+ years, and both have 22+ UFC fights in their careers. But that is the situation for Court McGee versus Tim Means. Neither of these guys wore the belt, and neither of them fought for the belt, but they have been slinging leather for fans for a long time and as such, are well respected and liked in the sport.
Court McGee was trending towards “cooked” after back-to-back KO victories, but after a neck surgery, he actually rebounded nicely in defeat versus Alex Morono. He lost that fight via decision, but in round three, he was firmly in control and was showing glimpses of his old self. Tim Means is also dealing with struggles as of late. He has one win in his last five fights and was knocked out by Uros Medic in late April. Means is now a wrestling coach and wanted to implement a grappling game in the Medic fight, but it was over before he could get started.
Means should have a striking advantage. McGee should be the better wrestler. Means is likely going to want to wrestle, which is going to neutralize his best weapons…
FIGHT WINNER: Court McGee
UFC 307 BEST BET: Court McGee (+154) vs Means, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.54 Units
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UFC 307 BEST BETS
– Alex Pereira Win via KO in R1/2 (+100) vs Rountree Jr, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1
– Raquel Pennington (-162) vs Pena, Risk 1.62 Units to Win
– Jose Aldo (+120), vs Bautista, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.2
– Kayla Harrison to Win Inside the Distance (+110), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.1
– Dolidze/Holland Fight Does Not Go The Distance (+145), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.45
– Marina Rodriguez (+150) vs Lucindo, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.5
– Austin Hubbard (+110) vs Hernandez, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.1
– Cesar Almeida to win via KO in Round 1 or 2 (-110), Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1
– Court McGee (+154) vs Means, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.54 Units
