UFC 308 Predictions:
Abu Dhabi in the Arab Emirates hosts this week’s UFC 308 event. Twenty-eight elite athletes are scheduled to compete for pride, evolution toward a top-ten ranking and championship belts in the larger 30-foot octagon.
Of the 14 featured fights, nine take place from welterweight (170 pounds) to heavyweight (265 pounds), so fight fans will not only see highly-ranked athletes competing, but they’ll see large, agile, ultra-dangerous ones at that!
Last week, Anthony ‘Fluffy’ Hernandez displayed that “it’s not the size of the dog in the fight, rather the size of the fight in the dog,” as he systematically broke down the hulking Brazilian striker Michel Pereira and finished him in the fifth round. That victory pushed this column’s profitability to 24-21 +8.65u to date.
Ilia Topuria -235 Champion vs. Max Holloway +195
Featherweight (145 pounds) Championship
For the last several years, Max Holloway or Alexander Volkanovski have championed the featherweight division. Volkanovski rushed back for a title defense some months ago against Topuria, and the German-born Topuria, fighting out of Spain, KO’d the Aussie for committing the error.
Since that fight in February, Topuria has taken every parade route available to celebrate his title while throwing barbs at fellow featherweights he proclaims to be unworthy of facing him.
One is former featherweight champion Max Holloway, Topuria’s opponent on Saturday. Holloway is convinced that Topuria has been ducking him with the help of the UFC. To be honest, I believe there’s some truth to the accusation.
Topuria is an electrifying champion who has deft boxing ability and footwork and plenty of power. He is 27, a black belt in BJJ, and was raised with a stout Grego Roman wrestling base at an incredibly early age. It’s this facet of Topuria’s fight arsenal that provides him with the unfailing confidence that no matter where a fight goes, he’ll hold advantage. Topuria totes violent tools, youthful confidence, and tremendous belief/momentum into this tussle with an all-time great.
Max Holloway is 32, but he has been competing against the top five of this division for years. Besides competing against the elite, Holloway, a brown belt in BJJ himself, brings four inches of height advantage into this fight. It will provide him with a substantial edge, provided Holloway can keep the fight standing and at distance.
Once the fight begins, Max will use his footwork to maintain distance and apply a steady dose of volume combination striking/kicking onto the incoming attacker ‘El Matador.’ who will be the forward-charging, raging bull in this fight Saturday despite his nickname.
Topuria will trust the plan of attack most effective against Holloway, which was perfected by Volkanovski’s approach to be the Hawaiian—a steady dose of forward pressure striking, deft head movement and evasion of strikes and takedowns strategically implemented to keep the taller Holloway guessing.
Topuria camp understands that Holloway has never been finished, and they’ll surely be looking to change that narrative.
For his part, Holloway must be a businessperson in the cage, and his attack must appear much more clinical. He must maintain a calm demeanor, for any pointing to the mat and toe-to-toe throwdown offers will not produce a favorable outcome against this younger, quicker, more profusely powerful Topuria.
This fight has every indication of being one of the most action-packed fights of the year, and I’ll have more to say about it as the week wears on.
Total in this fight: 4.5 Round Under -125
Khamzat Chimaev -250 vs. Robert Whittaker +210
Middleweight (185 pounds) Co-Main Event
Chimaev is a Russian with a brown belt in BJJ and considerable wrestling prowess who fights out of Sweden. He hit the UFC like a lightning bolt a few years back, winning fights in devastating fashion between two weight classes—welterweight and middleweight.
He’s aggressive and overwhelming early in fights. While he has shown immense potential early in his UFC career, his recent past has been marred by health issues and a lack of legitimate competition in the middleweight division.
Chimaev’s two middleweight wins were against one Gerald Meerschaert, who is a legitimate athlete fighting outside of the top fifteen, then Kamaru Usman, the former welterweight titleholder who moved up to fight Chimaev and took the Russian to an ultra-close decision.
Whittaker’s a bona fide middleweight elite. He’s ranked third in a division where he’s held the title previously and one that is as competitive as there is in the UFC.
A black belt in hapkido, a black belt in karate, and a black belt in BJJ, Whittaker has competed against every form of middleweight threat, body type, fighting specialty, and nationality,
Save for a loss to current champion Dricus Du Plessis, which was an off night for Whittaker, and two title losses to then-champion Israel Adesanya, Whittaker has defeated all other middleweight threats over the last several years. Now, he faces an opponent that has not competed in the octagon since last October.
When this fight begins, Whittaker will need to guard against the immediate/aggressive forward-pressing onslaught that will come from Chimaev.
Provided Whittaker can overcome Chimaev’s early overtures, he’ll be in a great position to navigate this fight into the second round, where he may begin to turn the tables on the wild, maniacal, front-running Chimaev.
Whittaker must survive the first round, and then in the second, he must tax the fatiguing Russian and direct him into the shadow realm, where the effects of early-round high-output fighting can fatigue and conquer the most formidable fighter.
Whittaker has a depth of experience; he’s faced every form of threat in the division, and he’s focused on a title return. His drive, patience, plan, and, most importantly, his legitimate middleweight strength will begin to sap the young brash Chimaev of his striking effectiveness and then, eventually, his ability to fend off an opponent. Whittaker will turn up the intensity of his strikes each minute until Chimaev cracks.
I expect it to be sometime in the second round that Whittaker begins to dominate this fight and eventually shuts this bloated welterweight down via stoppage.
UFC 308 Best Bet: Whittaker +210
Chimaev must prove he can compete with the middleweight elite.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Under -125
This week, the GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast will be available early Friday AM since these fights for UFC 308 from Abu Dhabi begin at 7 a.m. PT.
Thank you for reading, and enjoy the hostilities!
