UFC Best Bets
Last week was the time to take advantage of the torrid run favorites this year in the UFC as the parlay of Sean Strickland -240/Jailton Almeida -170 earned 1.0 unit on a 1.06 unit investment. To date, digital readers are in the black as profitability stands 14-9 +8.73u in your UFC best bets.
10-2 were favorites at UFC 302, pushing chalk to 149-67-4 this year or 67.7% which is as high as I can remember tracking for favorites in the UFC during this past decade!
Regression must be coming but the great question… is when?
This week, the UFC is in Louisville, KY for a card with thirteen scheduled fights, six of which are at the Welterweight (170 pounds) division or heavier, which may contribute to a higher potential for finishes as fights at 170 pounds and higher finish inside the distance at a clip of just over 59%.
Let’s keep this momentum moving in our UFC best bets!
Nassourdine Imavov -130 vs. Jared Cannonier +110
Middleweight (185 pounds) main event
Eighth-ranked Imavov of Russian descent fighting out of France is an ascending talent in this division.
With a solid boxing base, Imavov, 13-4 professionally, has developed his mixed martial arts arsenal under Fernand Lopez at the MMA Factory in Paris.
5-2-1 in the UFC, Imavov has been guided against more diverse and highly talented athletes every step of the way during his brief time in the UFC.
Now he gets his second firm test against a top-five talent in Cannonier. In his first top-five battle, Imavov was dominated by last week’s co-main event winner and ex-middleweight champion Sean Strickland.
The question to date is, has Imavov developed enough fight diversity and experience in the year and a half since Strickland squelched him to be able to compete effectively against Cannonier, who, by the way, defeated Strickland?
In fourth-ranked middleweight Jared Cannonier, we have an athlete finitely focused on a final run at a title for Cannonier, who has competed at Heavyweight, light heavyweight, and now middleweight. He is now 40 years of age, though he competes like a man many years younger.
Cannonier has a granite jaw and an unbreakable will. He’s felt the power of sluggers well larger than his current division and has managed to best every middleweight he’s faced save for his bout against then-champion Israel Adesanya.
At middleweight, Cannonier is unusually fast and adroit while retaining the power he possessed when he fought in the higher divisions. His grappling is complete yet untested, and his desire to earn another title opportunity drives him.
In this matchup, Cannonier will possess advantages in speed, footwork, grappling and power, while Imavov will be the man 12 years younger who will also hold a four-inch height advantage. Reach advantage goes to Cannonier, which, in essence, negates any advantage Imavov’s height provides him.
Once the bell for this bout begins, it will be Cannonier who is the forward-pressing aggressor, while it will be up to Imavov to hold his ground and attempt to bully, berate and batter Cannonier as Cannonier forges ahead to gain pocket position then unload on Imavov.
Both of these men are durable, and a finish by either seems unlikely at this point, as expressed by the total in this fight coming 4.5 rounds to the over -160.
Imavov believes he’s ready to take the top five position from Cannonier, and Cannonier believes that by slaying this young ascending talent, he only solidifies further his claim to be the next middleweight in line for a title shot.
I believe Cannonier’s physical attributes, mental capacity, experience, and level of competition all provide him an advantage in this fight.
UFC Best Bet: Cannonier +110
Ludovit Klein -130 vs. Thiago Moises +110
Lightweight (155 pounds)
This fight will be crazy. Two willing lefties will light up the Louisville crowd with their striking prowess.
The Slovakian Klein is 5-2 in the UFC, but his wins were earned against dubious talent many of whom are no longer in the organization. An athlete with a boxing background complimented with some BJJ, Klein steps up his level of opponent faced considerably when he climbs into the cage Saturday against Moises.
Moises is a black belt in BJJ who has trained among the slew of elite and diversely talented lightweight athletes in Florida’s ATT gym before returning to Brazil for this camp to train with the Fighting Nerds team, a white hot group of Brazilian killers.
Moises will be the taller, larger fighter in the cage Saturday, and he’s competed against an elite level of lightweight competition which is how and why I favor him in this confrontation.
I believe Moises is the faster striker with more developed BJJ acumen and it’s his comprehensive Jiu Jitsu acumen that sets his advantage in this bout.
UFC Best Bet: Moises +110
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -195
The ‘Bout Business Podcast is 15-4 over the last three UFC events and stacking profit each week. The podcast drops this Friday around Noon PT and is available at GambLou.com. Thank you for reading and enjoy this Louisville fight card.
