UFC Fight Night Picks & Predictions

VSiN Primetime producer Britton Hess has some strong takes on the UFC Fight Night Nicolau vs. Perez card and put pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts on every fight on the docket.

UFC Odds | UFC Betting Splits | Lou Finocchiaro’s article

BET HISTORY

UFC 300: 4-5 (-0.72 Units, -7.33%)

Article History: 27-26 (+9.2 Units, +16.71%)

PICK’EM HISTORY

UFC 300: 9-4 (69%)

Article History: 50-38 (56.82%)

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MAIN EVENT:

Matheus Nicolau (-180) versus Alex Perez (+150)

Over 4.5 Rounds (+105) | Under 4.5 Rounds (-135)

This main event is a rare matchup between two fighters coming off losses. Nicolau was finished inside the distance by Brandon Royval in a title shot eliminator bout, but before that he was on a six-fight win streak (four in the UFC). His opponent Perez was moved into this position on short notice after Manel Kape had to withdraw. Perez’s last fight was a decision loss just under two months ago versus the undefeated Mohammed Mokaev. Perez has had terrible injury luck with himself and his opponents; he has fought three times since 2021, and has not won a fight since 2020. However, there is a slight asterisk on those losses. The last fight was versus one of the most highly thought of prospects in the division (Mokaev). In 2022, he fought Alexandre Pantoja in the fight immediately before he won the flyweight title. In 2020, he fought Deiveson Figueiredo for the flyweight championship. Prior to that, his only loss in the UFC was against multi-time perennial contender Joseph Benavidez. Overall Perez’s record in the UFC is 6-4.

Undoubtedly, Perez has the stronger strength of schedule. But the caveat is he has lost the four fights versus his four toughest opponents. Nicolau has beaten lots of guys who have had long UFC careers including Matt Schnell, Tim Elliott, and Louis Smolka, but the only person he has faced who has come close to winning the belt was Brandon Royval. Additionally, Nicolau has never been featured in a main event, and has never fought a five-round fight.

The tricky part about handicapping this fight is trying to determine where the ceiling in Nicolau’s ability is; and where is Perez’s floor? The gap in the level of competition between the fighters they have beat versus the opponents they have lost to is relatively extreme. 

On paper, this is a very close matchup, with Perez landing slightly more significant strikes per minute, but Nicolau is slightly more accurate. Grappling is nearly a wash, although Perez has historically been a bit more active securing takedowns. Additionally, Nicolau has an impressive 93% takedown defense rate (14/15). But this stat is maybe a bit inflated because 10 of those takedown attempts came from Tim Elliott, who was 1/10 in the bout. In his seven other UFC bouts, he faced five takedown attempts.

At weigh-ins on Friday, both fighters hit their targets on the first attempt. Nicolau looked better to my eye, but Perez has historically looked rough on the scale and it hasn’t necessarily affected him on fight day. I see Perez being able to push wrestling tempo and test Nicolau’s takedown defense in ways he is not accustomed to seeing in the cage. The biggest thing holding me back on a bet is Perez’s relatively short notice in taking this fight (1 month), and the long history Perez has with injuries. That said, this is likely his last shot to propel himself back into the top five and title shot consideration. He has only been fighting the best when he has been in the cage over the past several years, there is a case to be made for Nicolau being his “easiest” opponent since 2020.

FIGHT WINNER: Alex Perez

BET: Pass (but check odds closer to fight time, we often see late movement to the favorites in Fight Night Main Events, if Perez gets up around +200 he is worth a shot)

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CO-MAIN EVENT

Ryan “Superman” Spann (-180) versus Bogdan “Czarevitch” Guskov (+150)

Over 1.5 Rounds (+200) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-250)

Spann has a great highlight reel with three knockout and two submission victories over the course of 11 trips to the octagon. He has seen a ton of talent in the light heavyweight division. He has faced two opponents who have fought for the title (lost via split decision vs Anthony Smith, knocked out Dominick Reyes, lost via submission to Anthony Smith) and shared the cage with other notable fighters such as Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Johnny Walker, and Nikita Krylov. With a 7-4 UFC record, his career has seen ups and downs. Eight of his UFC fights have been settled inside the distance, but two of his three fights that made it to the scorecards were split decisions. Spann is also an extremely active fighter, with an overall MMA record of 21-9 at just 32 years old. He has fought twice a year, every year since 2020 and this is his first bout since losing the split decision to Anthony Smith on August 26, 2023.

Guskov is still mostly a question mark in the UFC. We know that he fights at a frenetic pace, as both of his fights in the UFC have been decided in the first round. We also know that he has extremely heavy hands and is most successful when his power shots are landing. Overall, he is 15-3 as a professional fighter, with 13 of those victories coming via KO, and the other two coming via submission. He has been knocked out once, submitted once (by Volkan Oezdemir in Guskov’s UFC debut) and lost one fight via decision. He is a fighter that truly understands that the MMA game does not pay by the minute.

Guskov’s pre-UFC competition was solid, not necessarily great. He faced enough people who had double-digit fights and had reached the heights of B-Tier organizations such as Bellator, M-1, and ACA for us to know he is not totally out of his depth on a Fight Night show. Additionally, his UFC debut was on less than a month’s notice versus a former light heavyweight title contender in Oezdemir. His lack of fight camp for the fight was apparent in his physical makeup and obvious lack of cardio. For the first two minutes of the fight, he did some good things; he made Oezdemir respect his power and was not afraid to stay in his opponent’s face. But Oezdemir changed levels, got the fight to the ground, and wore Guskov out. In his second fight versus Zac Pauga, Buskov looked to be in much better shape with less noticeable fat and more defined muscles. He also did what I thought was impossible, making a Pauga fight interesting. He stuck to his guns and engaged with heavy hands in the center of the cage, he defended the takedown and ultimately finished Pauga with his unorthodox, thrown from the hip punches.

Stylistically this is a great matchup with two extremely dangerous light heavyweights. Spann has a notable reach advantage, measuring in at 81.5 inches to Guskov’s 76 inches. Spann is also 6’5” and Guskov is 6’3”. Putting the guys’ UFC stats side-by-side is useful, but not necessarily as instructive as it would be if Guskov were in the UFC longer. The one thing that sticks out is that in both of his UFC fights, Guskov’s striking defense was not great, especially regarding leg kicks. His head movement also leaves a bit to be desired; at times he looks as fluid as a champion boxer, but there are moments where his neck is stiff and his chin is out, and his hands are down. Against Pauga, he did not try to win with volume, he tried to pick his shots and it worked out.

We also know that Spann is a very well-rounded fighter who isn’t going to rush in and put himself in danger in search of the early KO. There is a legitimate chance this fight stalls early as the fighters feel out their opponents. I think Spann will try to keep Guskov at distance early in the fight using his jab and front kicks to control the space, I don’t think Guskov is going to want to eat shots to get inside.

Fight Winner: Ryan Spann

Bet: Over 0.5 Rounds (-235) is a parlay piece, see below

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Karine “Killer” Silva (-155) vs Ariane “Queen of Violence” da Silva (+130)

Over 2.5 Rounds (+120) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-150)

Silva has been in the UFC for three fights. All three of those fights have been first-round submission finishes. Overall, she is on an eight-fight win streak, with each victory coming inside the distance. She is 17-4 with a 100% finish rate and has only seen the judges’ scorecards once in her professional MMA career. She is an extreme outlier in a women’s flyweight division which rarely sees fights end inside the distance.

Da Silva (formerly Lipski) has fought in the UFC 11 times, with five of her fights finished before the final bell. She has won three fights in a row as an underdog of +160 or greater. Interestingly, all three of those opponents were coming off losses, and the betting markets thought da Silva was to be their rebound.The “Queen of Violence” had other plans. Overall, da Silva is 17-8 as a pro, and 6-5 in the UFC, she is currently enjoying her longest winning streak since going 9-0 from 2015-2018.

These types of fights are always interesting because Silva is as exciting of a fighter as you will find in this division and da Silva is old news. She has crushed public MMA bettors with a 3-3 record as a betting favorite (all three losses as a favorite of greater than -200). And, once again, the market is eager to fade her; this fight opened near a pick’em but has seen a 40-cent move. But she is 3-2 as a betting underdog. The question is did she turn a corner, or did she catch down-on-their-luck opponents in her last three fights?

At just 30 years old, it is a very real possibility that da Silva is finally reaching her potential and becoming the fighter she was expected to be when she joined the UFC five years ago. The grappling numbers do not lie; she has made a dramatic change in that department. In her last three fights she has a 100% takedown accuracy rate (4 for 4) AND a 100% takedown defense rate (avoiding all 21 attempts by her opponents). In her previous 8 UFC fights, her takedown accuracy was 20% (1 for 5) and her defense rate was 55% (10 for 18). Silva’s sample is much smaller, but if we include her contender series win we get a little more data. She has a 60% takedown accuracy rate, and a 0% takedown defense rate (0/2, her Contender Series opponent was the only one to attempt a takedown).

I am buying da Silva’s new wrestling style. Silva was able to overpower her opponents and force them into ground positions with brute force more than technique. I do not see that happening Saturday.

FIGHT WINNER: Ariane da Silva

BET: Ariane da Silva (+130), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.3

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Austen Lane (+270) versus Jhonata Diniz (-340)

Over 1.5 Rounds (+200) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-270)

Diniz is a 6-0 fighter making his UFC debut at age 32. All six of his victories are by first-round knockout. Prior to competing in MMA full time, Diniz was a high level kickboxer with a 22-7 record that included a few mid-level championships and even more championship bouts. Recently we have seen an influx of high-level strikers making their way to MMA after competing in other disciplines after the success seen by recent champions Israel Adesanya and Alex Pereira.

Austen Lane is also an athlete who crossed over to MMA from another sport. He bounced around the NFL for four years before dedicating himself to MMA. He is an excellent athlete and has great size for the division coming in at 6’6” with an 80” reach. Overall, his MMA record is 12-4, with all four of his losses coming via knockout. One was to Greg Hardy in Contender Series back in 2018, and another was to Justin Tafa in September of last year.

This fight feels like it was set up for Diniz to get the KO quickly and cleanly so he can fight again this year and get a few numbers in the win column. Lane’s best shot would be to use his physicality and try to get the fight to the ground. Perhaps there he has a shot. The only way to bet this fight is Diniz by KO… and early. The line on Diniz to win by KO is -250. The fight to end in Round 1 is at -190. Diniz to win in Round 1 is -150. Diniz to win in Round 1 via KO is -135. Eventually, I do not expect Diniz to be able to secure first-round KOs at the rate he did in lower organizations as his career progresses… but I do not think Lane is the opponent to buck the trend.

FIGHT WINNER: Jhonata Diniz

BET: Jhonata Diniz via First Round KO (-135), Risk 1.35 Units to Win 1

Parlay Diniz Wins via KO (-250) with Guskov/Spann Over 0.5 Rounds (-235) to get to (+100)

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Jonathan “JSP” Pearce (-148) versus David “Silent Assassin” Onama (+124)

Over 1.5 Rounds (-215) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+165)

Onama had the most egregious weight miss of any fighter at the weigh-ins on Friday. He came in 2.5 pounds over the Featherweight limit at 148.5 and will have to forfeit a portion of his purse to his opponent. He was scheduled to fight in November of 2023, but was forced to withdraw due to injury. Coming off an injury and missing weight immediately catches my eye. Prior to the injury and absence, Onama was 4-2 in the UFC with a 100% finish rate in victory, and reached a decision in both of his losses. Overall, Onama is 11-2 with 7 KO victories and 4 wins via submission. He has a massive reach for this division at 74” and he knows how to use it, as evidenced by all of his KO and choke victories. However it is interesting to note that in his four UFC fights that have completed the first round, he has lost the first 10-9 on three occasions.

Pearce has been in the UFC since late 2019. He has a 5-2 record in the organization. He lost his debut fight to veteran Joe Lauzon, and lost his most recent fight to the surging Joanderson Brito. He was the betting favorite in both of the fights that he lost (he is 2-0 in fights as the betting underdog). He is a well-rounded fighter with victories in the UFC via knockout (2), submission (1), and decision (2). At 6’ he will have a one inch height advantage over his opponent, but will be giving up three inches in reach.

Both fighters are very active with strikes, landing well over 5 per minute in the cage. Pearce has the better striking defense. Pearce also averages 5.29 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage, Obama has just a 45% takedown defense rate. As long as Pearce avoids Onama’s power, and successfully gets his opponent on the mat, he has an excellent shot at winning this fight.

FIGHT WINNER: Jonathan Pearce

BET: Jonathan Pearce (-148), Risk 1.48 Units to Win 1

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Tim “The Dirty Bird” Means (+245) versus Uros “The Doctor” Medic (-305)

Over 1.5 Rounds (-135) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+105)

Means has been doing his thing in the UFC for over a decade. He is now 40 years old and has 49 professional fights, 28 of which have come in the UFC. He is the epitome of a career company man, fighting whoever, whenever, wherever. Despite nearing the end of his career, he has managed to stay active. The results haven’t been all that spectacular lately; he went 1-1 last year, and is 2-3 since 2021. But his strength of schedule is great, he doesn’t often fight top-five opponents, but everyone he does face is solidly on the UFC roster; he isn’t taking easy fights versus late notice opponents being called up from lesser organizations or washed up stars trying to finish out their contract. He is still active in the UFC because he is still good. His extreme length for the division means he is a unique challenge for every opponent and over half of his fights finish inside the distance. There is a lot for fans, and the organization, to like.

Medic is an extremely gifted striker who usually has the reach advantage in the cage. He is 3-2 in the UFC with all three of his victories coming via knockout. Both of his losses are via submission, an area of weakness in common with his opponent. But that shouldn’t come into play in this fight because neither man is likely to spend too much effort seeking a takedown. Overall, he is 9-2 as a professional and has a 100% finish rate. He has excellent kicks and spinning attacks, using his arsenal to attack his opponents where they least expect it.

My read on this fight is that neither fighter’s deficiencies in the submission defense department should come into play. I do not think Medic will be able to freely hit Means like the odds indicate. Means just has too long of limbs and too good of a high shell guard to be surprised by a spinning attack. He has only been knocked out in the UFC one time, and that was five years ago in a fire fight with Niko Price. I do not think he will allow that type of exchange to happen early in this bout. Medic has what it takes to win, but the price is too high. He has never seen an opponent with close to the experience Means will bring into the cage. Additionally, I put the likelihood of an early finish in this fight very low. I see Means trying to draw the fight out and take advantage of his opponent in the back half of the contest.

Fight Winner: Tim Means

Bet: Over 1.5 Rounds (-135), Risk 1.35 Units to Win 1

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Rani Yahya (+310) versus Victor “La Mangosta” Henry (-395)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-135) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+105)

Both of these fighters have been in the mixed-martial arts game for a long time. Yahya is now 39 and Henry is 36. Yahya entered the UFC in 2011, after a five fight stint in WEC. Despite being an older fighter, Henry did not enter the UFC until 2022. Prior to that he fought in Rizin, Pancrase, and other regional promotions. Despite being a relative newcomer, he has a ton of respect in the MMA world, and is a student of former UFC heavyweight champion, Josh Barnett.

Yahya is one of the best BJJ practitioners in the UFC’s history. Seven of his 13 UFC victories have come via sub, the other six were via decision. Despite reaching the end of his career, he has managed to go 2-1 in his last three fights. His weakness is and always has been fast strikers who can avoid the takedown. This makes this matchup interesting, because despite being the much more active and accurate striker, Henry has not won via KO since 2020 when he was in Rizin. Henry is a capable grappler, but it is unlikely he is on Yahya’s level. That said, the striking metrics are so bad for Yahya that his only real chance to win this is by Henry falling into a choke, and given his experience I don’t consider that a likely outcome.

FIGHT WINNER: Victor Henry

BET: Pass

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Austin “Thud” Hubbard (+154) versus Michal “Mad Dog” Figlak (-185)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-250) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+190)

Hubbard is in his second stint in the UFC after a resurgent runner up performance on the Ultimate Fighter 31. He finished as the runner up to Kurt Holobaugh. Hubbard is a well-rounded fighter, but he does not have any attributes that jump off the page.

Figlak is making his second trip to the octagon after a disappointing debut where he lost as a -200 favorite. He was out grappled in that fight by Fares Ziam and does not present much of a threat by way of submission.

Figlak should be the cleaner striker, and Hubbard should excel in clinch/wrestling scenarios. This fight would be a good candidate for the “Either fighter wins by split or majority decision” prop, however it has already been hit and is now at just +300, which does not offer much value. I see Figlak being aggressive early in this fight, but if Hubbard is able to weather the storm he should be in this until the end.

FIGHT WINNER: Austin Hubbard

BET: Austin Hubbard (+154), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.54

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Don’Tale “Lord Kong” Mayes (-105) versus Caio “Bigfoot” Machado (-112)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-180) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+140)

I do not think Mayes is an elite UFC heavyweight, his 3-4, 1 NC record in the organization backs up that assertion. That said, I am not really understanding the market flipping favorites in this bout. He has beaten guys that have made full careers surviving on the UFC roster, and his losses are to guys that have good track records in the organization; Rodrigo Nascimento (x2), Augsto Sakai, and Cyril Gane. He is also 6’6” with a 81” reach, which is awkward to deal with even for other heavyweights.

Machado is 8-2-1. He won via decision as a slight underdog in Contender Series, then lost a decision in his UFC debut to Mick Parkin. His striking metrics from those two fights are very good, averaging 6.57 significant strikes landed per minute with 64% accuracy, and 64% striking defense. He has a path to victory if he is able to fight at his range and win a kickboxing match. He will have the speed advantage. My reservations about Machado are in his strength of schedule. His Contender Series opponent was proven to be unready for the moment and his pre-UFC strength of schedule was laughable.

Fight Winner: Don’Tale Mayes

Bet: Don’Tale Mayes (-105), Risk 1.05 Unit to Win 1

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Ketlen “Esquendtadinha Souza (-355) vs Marnic “The Sawed-Off Savage” Mann (+280)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-270) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+200)

Souza’s welcome to the UFC was not ideal. She was matched up with Karine Silva and lost via kneebar in the first round. Prior to that, she was an Invicta FC women’s flyweight champion. She is now moving down to women’s strawweight which projects to be her weight class of the future. At 5’3” with a 63” reach, she fits the weight class well, and fought at 115 pounds earlier in her career.

Mann also had a tough octagon premiere. She was called in on late notice to face the undefeated Josefine Knutsson and lost via decision. She is on the smaller end of weight class at just 5’ tall, but she does make up for that with her 64 inch reach.

Overall this fight projects to go long and be extremely close. The odds seem to be long given the unknown variables with Souza returning to the weight class. Additionally, Mann was put in a tough spot in her debut, so it is hard to know how she will adapt to UFC competition with a full fight camp.

FIGHT WINNER: Ketlen Souza

BET: Fight to be won via Unanimous Decision: Yes (-120), Risk 1.2 Units to Win 1

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James “Goku” Llontop (-440) versus Chris “Taco” Padilla (+340)

Over 2.5 Rounds (+140) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-180)

Llontop missed weight for his UFC debut by 0.5 pounds. He was among the last fighters to weigh in, but just missed the mark. His MMA record is 14-2. He is currently on a 12-fight win streak and has finished six of those opponents via knockout. He won his Contender Series match via decision. Llontop was initially scheduled to fight Gabriel Green on this fight card, but five days before the fight he withdrew, and Padilla was brought in as a late replacement.

Padilla last fought UFC veteran Justin Jaynes at UNF 13 in October and won the fight via knockout. Overall he is 13-6, with 11 wins inside the distance. He has been KO’d once, and submitted twice. Despite being a late addition to the card, he was able to make weight and looked to be in great physical shape. Additionally, despite his resume being less clean than Llontop, Padilla has fought much better competition.

FIGHT WINNER: James Llontop

Bet: Pass

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Ivana Petrovic (-440) versus Na “Dragon Girl” Liang (+340)

Over 1.5 Rounds (-125) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-105)

After an undefeated run in Ares FC, Petrovic expected a soft landing in the UFC versus Luana Carolina. She had submitted her last two AFC flyweight championship opponents and was debuting as a -200 favorite versus a fighter on a two fight losing streak. She quickly learned there are levels to MMA. while losing the “and 0” in her record. She is now 6-1 and looking to rebound versus another hungry fighter in Liang.

Liang is 0-3 in the UFC and has a previous loss in Bellator as well. All four of those major organization bouts have resulted in Liang being finished inside the distance in the first two rounds. She has had success on the China regional circuit, but when heading west the results have not been in her favor.

I am going to follow the trend and take Petrovic to win inside the distance. This is a good showcase spot versus an opponent that will give her the opportunity to add a highlight to the reel.

FIGHT WINNER: Ivana Petrovic

Bet: Ivana Petrovic Inside the Distance (+110), Bet 1 Unit to Win 1.1

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Maheshate Hayisar (-265) versus Gabriel “Moggly” Benitez (+215)

Over 1.5 Rounds (-175) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+135)

Benitez began his UFC career a decade ago on “The Ultimate Fighter Latin America: Season 1” and has been with the organization ever since. His record in sanctioned fights is 7-7. Dating back to 2019, he has a 2-5 record, albeit while facing very solid competition. Three of those defeats were via knockout, with another coming via sub from Jim Miller in January of this year. In 34 professional fights he has seen the scorecards eight times. At age 35, his body has been through a lot.

Maheshate is 24 years old and has 12 career professional fights and a 9-3 record. He is 1-2 in the UFC, but given his age and relative inexperience before entering the cage his strength of schedule is commendable. He knocked out Steve Garcia in his UFC debut, lost a decision to Rafa Garcia, then lost via KO to Viacheslav Borschev. Early in his career, three of Maheshate’s first four pro fights went to decision, but in his subsequent nine fights he has only seen the scorecards four times.

This fight should be much closer than the current odds. Benitez is a more active striker and has better striking defense. Neither fighter is much of a grappler, but Benitez is better in that department if the situation arises.

FIGHT WINNER: Gabriel Benitez

BET: Gabriel Benitez (+215), Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.15

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BEST BETS RECAP

Ariane da Silva (+130) vs Karine Silva, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.3

Jhonata Diniz wins via First Round KO (-135)vs Austen Lane, Risk 1.35 Units to Win 1

Parlay: Diniz Wins via KO (-250)/Guskov/Spann Over 0.5 Rounds (-235) to get to (+100)

Means/Medic Over 1.5 Rounds (-135), Risk 1.35 Units to Win 1

Austin Hubbard (+154) vs Michal Figlak, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.54

Don’Tale Mayes (-105) vs Caio Machado, Risk 1.05 Unit to Win 1

Souza/Marnic: Fight will be won via Unanimous Decision (-120), Risk 1.2 Units to Win 1

Ivana Petrovic Inside the Distance (+110) vs Na Liang, Bet 1 Unit to Win 1.1

Gabriel Benitez (+215) vs Maheshate, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.15

*ALL ODDS VIA DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK