UFC Predictions for Moicano vs. Saint Denis:
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Renato “Money” Moicano (+235) vs Benoit “God Of War” Saint Denis (-290)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+160) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-210)
Renato Moicano is a 35 year old pro’s pro who has found a way to leverage his longevity in the UFC into a very lucrative career. He is an ace grappler who virtually always has an advantage on the ground. He began his career at featherweight and went 5-3 between 2014 and 2019. Since moving up to lightweight, he is 6-2 and now legitimately just a fight or two away from getting a title shot. He doesn’t overwhelm anyone with his striking, but his grappling game is mint. He has great BJJ, but at this point in his career he is willing to opt for position over submission, as evidenced by his decision win over the dangerous Drew Dober two fights ago. He has six submission victories in the UFC but only averages 0.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes in the cage, indicating that when he sees an opportunity, he usually capitalizes on it, but he is not going to put himself in jeopardy in pursuit of a highlight.
As a striker Moicano is not all that accurate but does have good enough volume numbers at 4.38 significant strikes landed per minute. Defensively he has good baseline metrics, absorbing fewer than four significant strikes per minute, and avoiding 60% of his opponents’ attempts. That said, there is a hole when it comes to power shots; he has been knocked down four times (lost via KO three times) while only having landed one knockdown of his own. Opponents are not eager to attempt takedowns vs. Moicano, but when they do his defense generally holds up and his ratio of takedown ratio versus his 16 UFC opponents is 19:9. Moicano is currently on a three fight win streak but even he would admit he was lucky to exit the cage at UFC 300 with his hand raised. Jalin Turner landed a devastating knockdown and walked it off, but the problem was Moicano wasn’t fully knocked out, and was able to recover. He then took control of the fight late in the second round and was able to win via ground and pound. At the end of the fight he landed more significant strikes than Turner, a feat he hadn’t accomplished in his previous four fights.
Benoit Saint Denis will be the hometown favorite as a former member of the French Special Forces and one of the more popular French fighters of all time. He is 6-2 in the UFC with his first loss coming in his debut, and his second coming when he gassed out versus Dustin Poirier in his last fight. He has a 100% finish rate in his five UFC wins, all of which have occurred in the first or second round. The loss to Poirier deserves a second look because he came out in that one guns blazing and looked like he was on his way to a finish, but he hit a wall and the veteran Poirier was able to capitalize. Some of that defeat can be attributed to inexperience, and some of it can be attributed to the fact that there are rumors he was dealing with a staph infection in the leadup to that fight and may not have entered the cage at 100%. In 7.5 minutes, he out-struck Poirier 50-28 and landed three takedowns to Poirier’s zero. The performance is a perfect encapsulation of Saint Denis’ style, he has three knockouts in the UFC, as well as two submissions and it really was a gem of a performance until it wasn’t. In the lead-up to this fight Saint Denis looks leaner than ever which is perhaps an indication that he has dedicated some of this camp towards cardio which could be key in a five round bout versus a veteran like Moicano
On paper, Saint Denis is the more voluminous and more accurate striker. His striking defense is a bit wanting but he generally has more power and the better chin when he enters the cage, he is willing to eat one to land two. That said coming off a knockout six months ago means his chin could potentially be a problem. That said his knockdown ratio is still 4:1 with the one knockdown received being versus Dustin Poirier who has excellent boxing.
The line in this fight is definitely inflated due to the home cage advantage for Saint Denis. I also think that Saint Denis’ ceiling in the organization is much higher than Moicano’s. Moicano wasted his prime cutting too much weight in the 145-pound division and has fought mostly over the hill and/or middling lightweights. Saint Denis has an alright strength of schedule, but when he took his biggest step up versus Poirier he fell flat. I think Saint Denis wins this fight, but I think his price is too high. The odds at -290 indicate that Saint Denis wins this fight three out of four times, I think the margin is too thin there and much prefer him at around a -200 price point. I am putting Saint Denis in a parlay but let’s hope the first legs come home so that we can hedge and lock in a profit before the main event.
FIGHT WINNER: Benoit Saint Denis
BET: Parlay Piece: See Below
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Nassourdine “Russian Sniper” Imavov (-205) vs Brendan “All In” Allen (+170)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-145) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+114)
Nassourdine Imavov was born in Dagestan but make no mistake about it, he represents France and will have a friendly crowd behind him. His striking power has really developed over his last several fights and he has an excellent wrestling base. The 28 year old is 6-2, 1 NC in the UFC and has recovered nicely from a decision loss to Sean Strickland (the beginning of his title run). He opened my eyes when he took care of business versus Roman Dolidze as a favorite, which is a fight where I expected him to have trouble. Most recently, he fought Jared Cannonier in the main event of a fight night card and was able to win via KO in the fourth round.
Imavov’s striking metrics are good, but not eye-popping on paper. He lands more than he absorbs and has an excellent 59% significant strike defense rate. Imavov has landed more significant strikes than each of his opponents not named Sean Strickland. He has, at times, tried a little too hard to force the takedown and his takedown accuracy rate has suffered, just 36%. That said in his last two fights he is 5/7 in this department so he has become a bit more selective in the shots he takes.
I am not going to beat around the bush, I think Brendan Allen’s seven-fight UFC win streak is a bit fraudulent. He has wins versus several opponents with pedestrian UFC records, and his last fight result deserves a big red asterisk. He beat Chris Curtis after losing to him in 2021. But Curtis was on his way to winning a close fight by most accounts until a leg injury in the fifth round completely shut down his offense and Allen was able to take a split decision victory. Injuries happen and it is better to hurt your opponent than get hurt yourself, but Allen isn’t likely to be in this spot if Curtis’s body doesn’t fail him.
Allen has been getting better as a striker, but he still isn’t strong in that department. He is less accurate and has worse defense than Imavov versus worse opposition. He can wrestle well and has a ton of rear naked choke victories. But Chris Curtis was able to defend everyone of Allen’s attempts which is a good sign for Imavov.
Imavov wins this fight 80% of the time in my opinion meaning he is for sure a play for me in this spot.
FIGHT WINNER: Nassourdine Imavov
BET: Nassourdine Imavov (-205) vs Allen, Risk 2.05 Units to Win 1
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William Gomis (+260) vs Joanderson Brito (-325)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-135) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+105)
William Gomis is a French fighter who is looking to continue the momentum he has built up in his last three UFC fights. He is undefeated in the organization. This will be his third trip to the cage in front of his countrymen. He was a -200 or greater favorite in both of his fights in front of French crowds, so this is a dramatic flip in his expected fight environment. That said, he won as a +170 dog at the UFC Apex in April 2023 versus Francis Marshall, so he has delivered in tough spots before. That said, the combined UFC record of the opponents Gomis has defeated is 1-0, so he hasn’t exactly jumped into the deep end yet.
Gomis is good at limiting action in fights; it does not lead to the most entertaining bouts but it does allow him to fight at his own pace and pick spots to score while befuddling opponents. He is also an alright wrestler who has successfully caught opponents off guard in the past. That said, I am not sure what Brito has to fear in this fight.
Joanderson Brito is a rare unicorn in the UFC in that he is more physically imposing than any opponent he faces. This is the top MMA organization in the league, everyone is strong, everyone is athletic, but Brito separates himself with raw strength and power. That said he did get humbled in his UFC debut versus Bill Algeo, losing via decision. Since then he has five first or second-round finishes. He also defeated budding star Diego Lopes via decision in Contender Series.
Brito won his last fight via “Doctor Stoppage (Cut on Shin)” and that description is nowhere near graphic enough to describe what ensued. His opponent Jack Shore had a gash in his shin that exposed bone. As I was saying earlier, Brito’s power is different. He does not overwhelm opponents with volume striking, but he does land over three takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage.
I expect Gomis to be in for a rude awakening in this fight
FIGHT WINNER: Joanderson Brito
BET: Joanderson Brito to Win Inside the Distance (+105), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.05
Parlay piece, see below
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Kevin Jousset (+140) vs Bryan Battle (-166)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-260) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+195)
Kevin Jousset has looked excellent for the majority of his first two trips to the octagon. He is a Frenchman, but has spent the majority of his career fighting in Australia and training in New Zealand at City Kickboxing. He has been a moderate favorite in his first two fights and definitely looked the part versus Kiefer Crosbie and Kenan Song. He is a beast on paper, landing 8.23 significant strikes per minute, but I would temper your expectations for that type of output versus a very tough opponent.
Bryan Battle is a veteran of The Ultimate Fighter and has gone 5-1, 1 NC in the UFC. Four of his victories have come via stoppage and two wins as an underdog. His one loss came via decision versus a very tough Rinat Fakhretdinov and he came back better than ever after that showing. Battle is giving up an inch in height but makes up for it with a two-inch reach advantage.
This should be a fun one to watch but I think Jousset could come into his own in front of a friendly crowd. That said, I think Battle’s experience will win the day.
FIGHT WINNER: Bryan Battle
BET: Pass
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Morgan “The Last Pirate” Charriere (-675) vs Gabriel “Fly” Miranda (+490)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-166) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+130)
Morgan Charriere is a fun fighter with a plethora of regional scene experience. The 28-year-old Frenchman is 19-10-1 as a pro and 1-1 in the UFC. His last fight was his “Welcome to the UFC” moment in a loss versus Chepe Mariscal. Charriere definitely had the better moments in that fight, but simply put Mariscal had more moments overall and was rewarded with the split decision victory. Prior to that Charriere looked like a freight train versus Manolo Zecchini on his way to a first round body kick KO victory.
Gabriel Miranda is also 1-1 in the UFC. He is a part of Benoit Saint Denis’ win via finish streak but got back in the win column versus Shane Young via first-round submission. And submissions are the name of the game for Miranda 16 of his 17 professional victories have come via sub. That said Charriere’s takedown defense has held up so far in the cage and if he wants to engage his grappling it will likely have to begin from a defensive position.
FIGHT WINNER: Morgan Charriere
BET: Parlay: Charriere/Miranda Fight Doesn’t Go The Distance, Joanderson Brito, Benoit Saint Denis (+143), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.43
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Fares Ziam (-130) vs Matt Frevola (+110)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-154) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+120)
This fight will feature two styles that are extreme contrasts. Fares Ziam is a control fighter who avoids putting himself at risk at all costs. Matt Frevola is not afraid to swing big with his chin up and available. Ziam is the French fighter so he will definitely have support, but Frevola is popular in his own right after winning via KO in three of his last four fights. That said, he, too, is a victim of Benoit Saint Denis’ finish streak and last time out in November of 2023 he lost via head kick.
Ziam is 5-2 in the cage and has not beaten anyone of note. He lost to the wild man Terrance McKinney via rear naked choke and a decision to Don Madge. Simply put, Frevola has the superior striking weapons here, and I do not think he will settle for the clinch style control fight Ziam will want to institute. In my mind the wrong fighter is favored despite this taking place at Accor Arena in Paris.
FIGHT WINNER: Matt Frevola
BET: Matt Frevola (+110) vs Ziam, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.1
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Ion “The Hulk” Cutelaba (-105) vs Ivan Erslan (-115)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+130) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-115)
Ion Cutelaba has a reputation as a very fun fighter. Unfortunately he is not a very good fighter, or at least his results have not been good. He is 6-9-1 in the UFC and is only in the organization because the vast majority of his fights are over inside the distance. Overall, Cutelaba is 1-4 in his last five fights and was finished in three of the losses in this streak. However, he gets a green opponent here; if octagon experience matters you’d hope he’d find a way to use it in this matchup.
Ivan Erslan is 14-3 as a professional and is making the jump from Polish promotion KSW to the UFC. Erslan is 4-3 in KSW so you could argue his move to the UFC is a bit suspect. That said, 10 of his victories have come via KO, so he is a good stylistic partner for Cutelaba as far as entertainment factor goes. However I will say Cutelaba showed some patience and growth in his last fight, despite it not going his way. If Erslan wants to get in a fire fight, I think he will be in for a rude awakening.
FIGHT WINNER: Ion Cutelaba
BET: Ion Cutelaba (-105), Risk 1.05 Units to Win 1
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Oumar Sy (-600) vs Da Woon “Sseda” Jung (+440)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-160 | Under 1.5 Rounds (+124)
Oumar Sy is a perfect 10-0 at just 28 years old. Eight of his wins have come inside the distance. He is 1-0 in the UFC and made short work of his late replacement opponent, Tuco Tokkos. Before jumping up to the UFC he fought a few guys who had experience in MMA’s top promotion and he finished both of them in the first round. The hype is behind Sy for a reason.
Da Woon Jung is 4-3-1 in the UFC. He is a tough fighter and does not go out easily. His last match up versus Carlos Ulberg ended with the Korean fighter being submitted in the third round, but making it that deep into the fight was an achievement in itself. He is on a three-fight losing streak and is in desperate need of a win but I do not think this is the fight for him to get back on track.
FIGHT WINNER: Oumar Sy
BET: Oumar Sy to Win Inside the Distance (-150), Risk 1.5 Units to Win 1
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Ludovit “Mr Highlight” Klein (-1000) vs Roosevelt Roberts (+650)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+130) | Under 2.5 Round (-166)
Ludovit Klein began his UFC career in unceremonious 0-2 fashion, but has since strung together a seven-fight unbeaten streak. He has excellent striking, but he isn’t necessarily a KO artist. In his six UFC wins, he has just one KO victory with the rest coming via decision. That said, I think the UFC gave him an opponent that will give him ample opportunity to find the highlight.
Roosevelt Roberts is on his second stint in the UFC and this one has picked up where the first one left off. He was submitted by Mateusz Rebecki in the first round of his comeback fight. He was also on the receiving end of the Ignacio Bahamondes wheel kick knockout that the UFC uses in every other hype package. That said, he is a capable striker and will be searching for a finish of his own. He also has long limbs and has two submission victories in the UFC.
FIGHT WINNER: Ludovit Klein
BET: Pass
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Taylor Lapilus (-375) vs Vince Morales (+295)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-345) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+250)
Taylor Lapilus is another French Fighter with an impressive UFC resume. He is 5-2 in the organization and is currently on his second run with the UFC. His most recent loss came as a +225 dog versus Farid Basharat, but he rebounded with a nice decision win versus Cody Stamann. Like most fighters who have made it as long in the organization as Lapilus, his striking defense is considerably better than his striking offense.
On the other side of the cage stands Vince Morales, a UFC veteran with a 3-5 record in the organization. This is actually his comeback fight as he lost back to back fights in 2022 and moved down to the regional scene. Versus low level opponents he has won five straight fights and is now getting a second chance at life in the UFC. This one is tough to handicap because neither one of these fighters will be taking this opportunity for granted. I don’t think Lapilus has a “run away with it” style so I am not eager to lay the price.
FIGHT WINNER; Taylor Lapilus
BET: PASS
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Allin “Fiona” Perez (-205) vs Darya Zheleznyakova (+170)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-270) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+200)
Allin Perez is the lone fighter on this card to miss weight. She came in .5 pounds over the women’s bantamweight limit of 136. That said, I still like her versus an inexperienced fighter here. She is 3-1 in the UFC with her loss coming in her debut. In her three fights as a favorite, she has taken care of business and gone the distance. On the Other side, Darya Zheleznyakova is making her UFC encore after winning her debut versus the overmatched Montserrat Rendon. Her takedown defense largely held up in her debut but the volume that Perez will bring will be a problem.
FIGHT WINNER: Allin Perez
BET: Allin Perez (-205) vs Zheleznyakova, Risk 2.05 Units to WIn 1
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Daniel Barez (+110) vs Victor “El Magnifico” Altamirano (-130)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-250) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+190)
Daniel Barez is another fighter on this card who started their career in the UFC cage with a less than warm welcome. He lost his debut to Jafel Filho via submission and is looking to get back on track versus an opponent with an up and down UFC track record. Victor Altamirano is 2-3 in the UFC with all three of those losses coming as a heavy underdog. He was -170 versus Daniel Lacerda and took care of business with a first-round ground and pound win. On paper this is an exceedingly close fight, with an edge going to Altamirano due to experience. Both of these guys have found themselves in more split decision fights than the UFC average, but the juice is not worth the squeeze at +330, in my opinion.
FIGHT WINNER: Victor Altamirano
Bet: Pass
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Nora Cornolle (+170) vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti (-205)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-375) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+270)
Nora Cornolle and Jacqueline Cavalcanti first fought three years ago on the regional scene. Cavalcanti won that match, but Cornolle has since gone 8-0. Cavalcanti is 7-1 as a pro and 2-0 in the UFC. Her last bout versus Josiane Nunes was a little too close for comfort, as it went to a split decision and lost the third round on two of the three judges’ scorecards. She had some serious physical advantages in that fight and her inability to use them to close out the fight is a bit concerning.
In the other corner, Nora Cornolle has done a lot to impress me. In her debut, she beat Joselyne Edwards as a small dog, then came out and KO’d Melissa Mullins as a +280 underdog. Overall, she is a unicorn in the UFC’s women’s bantamweight division, finishing her opponent in seven of her eight pro victories.
Getting one back from a former opponent is usually easier said than done, that said, Cornolle stock is on the rise and if she does what i expect she will be fighting ranked opposition next.
FIGHT WINNER: Nora Cornolle
BET: Nora Cornolle (+170), vs Cavalcanti, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.7
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Bojan “The Zulu Warrior” Oki (-185) vs Chris “The Problem” Duncan (+154)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-110) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-120)
Bojan Oki made his UFC debut with a bit of a whimper after winning via first-round KO in Contender Series. When he officially joined the UFC roster, he fought Timmy Cuamba and won via split decision as a -175 favorite. Cuamba is a tough fighter, but not overly talented and now has an 0-2 UFC record. In that fight Oki outstruck Cuamba in two out of three rounds however his accuracy number never eclipsed 50%. Chris Duncan won two decisions to start his UFC career then was submitted in February by the always dangerous Manuel Torres. The issue in this fight for Duncan is that Oki projects to land more strikes and also has the ability to punish Duncan’s failed takedown attempts.
FIGHT WINNER: Bojan Oki
Bet: Pass
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Best Bets Recap:
Nora Cornolle (+170), vs Cavalcanti, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.7
Nassourdine Imavov (-205) vs Allen, Risk 2.05 Units to Win 1
Joanderson Brito to Win Inside the Distance (+105), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.05
Charriere/Miranda Fight Doesn’t Go The Distance, Joanderson Brito, Benoit Saint Denis (+143), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.43
Matt Frevola (+110) vs Ziam, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.1
Oumar Sy to Win Inside the Distance (-150), Risk 1.5 Units to Win 1
Allin Perez (-205) vs Zheleznyakova, Risk 2.05 Units to WIn 1
