UFC Predictions for UFC Vegas 98: Royval vs. Taira:
This week, the UFC returns to its APEX facility for Las Vegas 98: Royval vs. Taira. This fight card is scheduled for 13 bouts, with some opportunities for UFC best bets.
The APEX utilizes the smaller cage, and the environment is less voracious than live events, as very few fans can attend. Six fights will feature athletes competing at 170 pounds or above, so large, aggressive men will ill intent jammed in a smaller cage, hints of violence.
Fifteen of the 26 athletes competing are from the US, so handicapping the travel aspect of those fights becomes potentially advantageous should any American fighters compete against an athlete who has had to navigate travel into the states, then to Las Vegas.
Last week, my release of Ovince Saint Preux was a poor one. He was submitted early in the first round of his fight. I’ll take a 22-20 +7.65 unit profit into this column.
Brandon Royval +185 vs. Tatsuro Taira -225
Flyweight (125 pounds) main event
Taira is a Japanese athlete who has been propelled up the rankings in a noticeably short time. He is 16-0 professionally and 6-0 in the UFC. Taira is ranked fifth in the division despite the fact that he has competed against only one ranked opponent.
Taira, 24, is a submission specialist. He’s a purple belt in BJJ, and his athleticism, cardio and quickness are advantages he utilizes with great expertise.
Taira’s strength in this fight will be his grappling, youth and quickness together, which may be a favorable matchup against a guy in Royval who has had trouble defending takedowns and aggressive incoming grapplers.
In BJJ black belt and number one flyweight contender Brandon Royval, Taira steps up significantly in class, not just into the top ten but against the division’s top cat.
Royval has a depth of UFC experience; he’s competed for the title previously and has been in against the absolute elite in the division, yet he comes a +285 underdog at open?
The market seems to think yes, though the price on the incoming Japanese fighter has dropped with Royval interest.
While Taira’s shown great physical development in his fights, it’s my position that, in this one, he may be stepping up in class a bit too quickly.
Total in this fight: 3.5 Rds Over -125
Junyong Park -185 vs. Brad Tavares +160
Middleweight (185 pounds) co-main event
These two were scheduled to fight on July 20th, but the fight was canceled. Then, these two were priced at a pick ’em when that fight opened, only to have Park be the -165 favorite once the bout was called at the last minute.
Now, for this second scheduled bout in three months, Park opens -185 to +160 for Tavares.
Neither of these men is ranked, but with a victory against the other, the winner solidifies himself as a solid top-20 athlete in a division stacked with killers.
Park is 33 and the younger fighter. He enters this fight off a loss to submission savant Andre Muniz. Park won his previous four bouts against relative journeymen competition prior to that bout.
In Tavares, we have one of the great and experienced athletes in the division and the UFC. Tavares, now 36, has been in with the elite of the division, and he’s faced every form of fight specialty in his lengthy career.
Tavares enters this bout 1-3 in his last four, but those losses were to the elite of the division and its current champion. He’s the taller man by three inches in this fight. He holds a one inch reach advantage, and besides competing against more elite competition, Tavares enters this fight firing fresh, as he has not had to compete since February.
Park’s youth, exuberance and willingness all make him a potential mark for Tavares on Saturday. I thought this prior to the first fight, and I feel it even more now with the inflated underdog price of Tavares.
UFC Vegas 98 Best Bet: Tavares +160
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -265
Chidi Njokuani -185 vs. Jared Gooden +160
Welterweight (170lbs.)
The “styles make fights” battle of the night!
Thirty-five-year-old Njokuani is a black belt in BBJ. He is tall, lean, long, profusely powerful and a highly athletic Muay Thai force for about four to five minutes.
After a round, Njokuani, usually the taller man in the cage with reach advantage, can slow both mentally and physically if he is unable to lightning bolt opponents early and launch them to la-la land.
In 30-year-old Gooden, we have a stout, tough, durable forward-pressing brown belt in BJJ who has power in his hands but can be most effective in close and mauling. Gooden’s confidence grows in fights the longer he can tax opponents by pressing them, clutching them, and forcing them to defend. Gooden’s fight acumen ascends in fights while Njokuani’s fades.
Gooden enters this fight off a win and has competed against better than decent competition so far in his career, but he steps up in class of opponent for this fight.
Njokuani opened -150 and is now -185 to Gooden’s +160. If Gooden can see round two, a live bet on him as probable underdog would be a savvy consideration.
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds Over -155
Clayton Carpenter -190 vs. Lucas Rocha +165
Flyweight (125 pounds)
Rocha’s a one-dimensional power-striking Brazilian fighter making his debut in the UFC coming off a contender series demolition.
Carpenter is a wrestling natural from when he was in diapers and has one UFC bout under his belt, a win.
While Rocha has never been finished, it’s my take that his forceful, aggressive forward-launching striking will lend itself ideally to the more patient, beguiling, sophisticated wrestler/grappler who will be waiting to engage, take this fight down to the mat, then drown the striker.
UFC Vegas 98 Best Bet: Carpenter -190
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -135
GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast will be available Friday mid-day PT at GambLou.com. All my final releases can be accessed there. Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights!
