Best Bets for UFC Vegas 90
The UFC returns to its APEX Center for this week’s UFC LV90 Allen vs. Curtis fight card. The slate kicks off early as the prelims begin at 12 p.m. PT with the main card starting at 3 p.m. PT. Favorites continue to realize a 64% winning percentage after going 7-6 in Atlantic City.This week, there are 13 scheduled events with five debuting athletes. The main card is a rematch where Brendan Allen takes on Chris Curtis in a fight that Curtis accepted on short notice after Allen’s original opponent Marvin Vettori had to step out. Let’s look at this week’s UFC best bets.
Last week, I earned victory with both the over 4.5Rds -130 in the main event Blanchfield vs. Fiorot as well the underdog release of Virna Jandiroba +170 won a unanimous decision as well.
Digital results in 2024 now stand 8-5 +6.22u
Let’s keep this train rolling!
Brendan Allen -200 vs. Chris Curtis +170
Middleweight (185 pounds) main event
It was December of 2021 when these two first tussled and Allen faced Curtis on short notice. In this one, Allen was supposed to face another fighter when Curtis was asked to step in on short notice to take this fight.
In their first matchup, Allen was unprepared for Curtis’ explosive nature and power. I believe too, that Allen underestimated the then-unranked Curtis. In this bout, Allen was preparing for fifth ranked Marvin Vettor, so the short notice nature of Curtis stepping in coupled with the revenge factor are substantial differences for Allen Saturday, as opposed to their bout in 2021.
Curtis arrives at this fight with a 3-2 UFC record following his first Allen win. He has competed against worthy talent as his current #14 ranking in the division indicates.
Curtis’ nickname of “Action man” is well placed as he is an aggressive forward-pressing power striker who takes fights directly to opponents. Curtis uses a high energy pace to unload almost six significant strikes per minute on opponents. However, his high output leaves him open to risk. His rate of significant strikes absorbed is an obtuse 6.6 per minute, which is a negate strike differential and something worrisome when competing against an elite middleweight talent like Allen. He employs little if any offensive wrestling, though his takedown defense is stout, and it will be tested in this fight.
In Allen, we have a fighter that has gone on an impressive run since his defeat to Curtis. He has won six straight UFC bouts against competition that is highly respected with a great diversity of skills, each effective in utilizing a diversity of fighting weaponry.
Though Allen will not posses a reach advantage in this bout. he is four inches taller, six years younger, and more mature in fight experience than when these two first engaged. Allen’s improvements in fighting skill and IQ have both evolved tremendously. I am quite certain that Allen will not make the mistake of underestimating Curtis.
Originally preparing to face fifth-ranked Vettori puts Allen in a position where he was already set to face a seismic slugger. Besides that, this opportunity provides Allen with a keen focus to make amends for the loss he incurred against a man that he believes he owes.
Allen’s striking, once a shortcoming in his MMA game, has improved since these two last competed and his grappling/BJJ is absolutely world class. When the bell for this fight sounds, Allen needs to ensure that he forces the incoming scud missile that is Curtis to expend energy early in this fight in order to drain the destroyer of his spark in the later going.
From the middle rounds on, Allen, who has had the benefit of a full camp needs to force Curtis to put in effort against his own striking and grappling then find a way to trip, drag or pull the sturdy striker onto the floor.
From the floor, Curtis will be out of his element while Allen will be in his. Grounding Curtis will be the fulcrum of Allen’s efforts as he needs to take Curtis where Curtis is unable to effectively compete–the mat.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -160
Lean to the Over.
Alex Morono -195 vs. Court McGee +245
Welterweight (170 pounds)
Favorites are running a smooth 64% this year in the UFC. With that, I have zeroed in on another parlay piece I believe offers digital readers opportunity into next week’s UFC 300 mega card.
In this bout, McGee arrives a grizzled veteran of the organization. A combatant in the Ultimate Fighter season 11, he is 21-11 professionally and 9-11 in the UFC. McGee’s strength is wrestling, but he is now 39, and more importantly, 2-5 since 2019 with losses by first round finish in his last two.
McGee has overcome a tremendous amount of adversity in his life, and for that he should be commended. The fact that the UFC keeps him active into his late thirties is testament to his perseverance and likability. But this is the fight game, and no one ever earned merit with personality.
His opponent, Alex Morono, is 23-9 professionally and 5-2 since 2021, fighting well more capable and decorated opposition than he will face Saturday in McGee, with all due respect to McGee.
Morono’s last fight was a tough decision loss to Joaquin Buckley who we witnessed disassemble Vicente Luque last week in Atlantic City. Morono, a Texan who owns a gym and trains other fighters, is a viable and improving welterweight talent in the UFC.
Morono’s an active striker with little power, but his wrestling and BJJ are acute assets. He brings a full arsenal of mixed martial arts weaponry into this fight. He is hungry to get back into the win column after that tough result against Buckley.
Once this bout begins, it will be McGee who will rush Morono with forceful wrestling advances. It will be up to Morono to utilize his movement and take down defense to keep this one standing through the first round.
Once Morono can navigate this bout into the second round and later, it will be his forward pressing striking, his six-plus year youth advantage and conditioning that over time will overcome McGee and his singularly dimensioned wrestling.
With Morono, I will pair next week’s UFC 300 lightweight fighter Jalin Turner currently priced -205. Turner fights Brazilian Renato Moicano, who arrives to the battle an overmatched opponent but not on the scale of McGee.
Opting to use a parlay of Morono -295 and Turner -205 allows me to invest 1.04 units with a potential takeback of 1.0 unit.
The total in the Morono vs. McGee battle is lined 2.5 Rds -120 to the Over. I expect a one-sided decision in favor of Alex Morono.
UFC Best Bet: Morono-295/Turner -215 1.04u returns 1.0u
Morgan Charriere -125 vs. Jose Mariscal +105
Featherweight (145 pounds)
Charriere, 19-9-1 professionally, arrives to this fight with plenty of hype after a brilliant debut in his home country last September against a low-grade caliber UFC opponent in Italian Manolo Zecchini.
Charriere steps well up in class for this fight, even though he arrives having earned victory in his last four bouts.
In Jose ‘Chepe’ Mariscal, Charriere will get baptized into true UFC competition in my judgment.
Mariscal is of Mexican descent, he trains at altitude in Colorado, and is Judo based is aggressive with his striking/kicking and sports a granite beard. Mariscal, 2-0 in the UFC against worthy competition, will look to utilize the smaller confines of the APEX cage to engage the Frenchman in a frenetic firefight. Chaos, aggression and finishing power all heavily favor Chepe in this fight.
In what I believe will be Charriere earning his PhD. in MMA, I look for Chepe to indoctrinate the front running Frenchman into the reality of UFC competition.
Mariscal opened -145 before steam came in on Charriere, moving the line to Charriere -170. Buy back (from GambLou.com clients among others) has brought that line back to current pricing.
I happen to agree with the opening number.
UFC Best Bet: Mariscal +105
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -195
I lean to the Under in this bout.
GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops this week around 1 p.m. PT. Access it and all my UFC best bets at GambLou.com.
Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights.
