UFC Best Bets
This week, the UFC returns to its APEX Center for the Las Vegas 86 production on Super Bowl weekend. While many may question the depth of talent on this card, I find that these fight slates that feature more obscure, lesser-known talent can really deliver when it comes to excitement and finishing potential, and some interesting UFC best bets.
This card features fourteen bouts, but more interestingly, it’s comprised of eight athletes who make the walk to the cage with at least thirty-four years of age. In all but one of those bouts, those elder athletes are giving away at least two years of advantage to their opponents.
A two-year age advantage works to the younger fighters favor some 55% of the time in UFC bouts, while athletes with 6.5 years or better advantage (four bouts) realize a better than 60% chance of getting their hand raised.
Through three events in 2024, favorites stand 20-13-2 (57%). My 2024 digital releases currently stand 1-1 +.85u.
Here are my UFC best bets.
Joe Pyfer -230 vs. Jack Hermansson +195
Middleweight (185 pounds) main event
The Swede, Jack Hermansson, is ranked fifteenth in the division. He brings a 23-8 record into this fight and a wealth of experience in the UFC against world-class middleweight foes.
Hermansson is 10-6 in UFC competition. However, since his loss to Jared Cannonier in 2019, he is 3-4, with two of the three wins coming via decision.
Hermansson is grappling-heavy. He’s effective on the feet but does not possess fight-ending power for a man his size. At this stage of Hermansson’s career, he employs striking to set up his clinch game where he seems most comfortable.
Most concerning for Hermansson at this evolution of his career is that he realizes only 29% takedown effectiveness, and for a grappling-heavy athlete, competing against younger, durable foes can force him to expend energy trying to ground younger, sturdier foes.
Joe Pyfer enters this tussle with a 12-2 professional record, but Pyfer is only 3-0 in the UFC, and his opponents are nowhere near the level of competence that his opponent has faced.
Pyfer sports an eight-year youth advantage with a slight height edge despite giving up a couple of inches of arm/leg reach and an abundance of UFC experience to Hermannson.
It’s also important to note that Pyfer has shown to be a violent finisher. However, he’s not been beyond the second round in the entirety of his professional career, which is worthy of mention as he steps well up in class for his first five-round main event opportunity here against “The Joker.”
Pyfer and the UFC may feel that he is ready for this upgrade in competition, and it does appear that he is in a decent position against an athlete in Hermansson who is clearly on the other side of his prime.
That said, Hermansson may not be ready to relinquish ranking easily, and he’ll surely attempt to utilize his experience, guile, and cage generalship to force the young power-punching Pyfer into the later rounds of this bout. There, it’s entirely possible that the potential distractions of a main event, the media commitments, and Hermansson’s experience may dupe the slugger into making mistakes.
All that said, this is the UFC, and they are yearning for violent finishes. It’s more than plausible that Pyfer has been set up to shine in a bout where his youth, power, speed and determination are being encouraged to shine.
This total opened 2.5 Over -140 and now stands 2.5 Rds Under -160!
Rodolfo Vieira -120 vs. Armen Petrosyan +100
Middleweight (185 pounds)
This bout was originally scheduled for this past November, and at the time, it was lined as a pick ‘em, just as it is currently.
In Vieira, we get a decorated BJJ savant from Brazil who is reliant on clasping onto opponents, dragging them to the mat, and then coiling around them like a viper to its prey.
Vieira is strong yet unbalanced in his mixed martial arts weaponry, as he is very reliant on grappling, and his striking is still in the development stages, while his cardio has been shown to need improvement.
Vieira’s goal in this or any fight is to eliminate distance between him and his foe, then crowd, corner and clasp onto said foe in order to ground them and transition to a submission attempt.
In the Russian/Armenian Petrosyan, Viera faces an athlete three inches taller than him who is himself a decorated Muay Thai striker and kickboxer. Petrosyan has been in with a more competent and diverse array of UFC opponents. More importantly, he’s faced strong wrestlers who he has defeated and another world-class BJJ artist in Caio Borralho, who defeated him.
It’s the three full rounds against Borralho, which few middleweights have accomplished, coupled with Petrosyan’s size, then the level of competence in his previous foes that together allow me to favor Petrosyan in this fight.
I expect Vieira to come right at Petrosyan and look to end this fight quickly, while the Petrosyan plan will be to keep this fight on the feet, maintain his striking/kicking distance, and over time, sap the incoming grappler of his will and cardio.
Petrosyan will need to survive a frantic first round, after which I judge that he will be able to force his striking diversity and will upon his Brazilian foe.
In a terrific clash of fighting styles, Petrosyan is the more complete mixed martial artist.
UFC Best Bet: Petrosyan +100
The total in this fight opened 1.5 Over -170 and has now been lined at 2.5 Under -165.
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Thank you for reading, and enjoy the fights!
