2023-24 NBA Futures and Awards Bets
We’re only a couple of weeks into the 2023-24 NBA season, but it feels like we have learned a lot. A ton of players and teams are really starting to stand out, which makes it a good time to check in on some futures markets. With that in mind, keep reading to find out some of the long-term plays I’d suggest making at this point in the season. Also, make sure you listen to the Hardwood Handicappers podcast for more analysis throughout the season.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Minnesota Timberwolves To Win NBA Championship (65-1)
I wasn’t sure what to make of the Timberwolves before the season, but I have been very impressed with what I have seen thus far. On Monday, the Timberwolves earned a 114-109 overtime win over the Boston Celtics. That’s a Celtics team that is first in the league in pretty much every single metric. So, it was a serious statement by the Timberwolves, who look remarkable defensively. Through six games, Minnesota is first in the league in adjusted defensive efficiency (according to Dunks & Threes). And the Timberwolves’ defensive rating of 100.7 on the NBA’s official stats page is the lowest mark we’ve seen since the 2015-16 season. Of course, that number might not be sustainable. But this team defends like there’s no tomorrow, and it’s not like the Wolves are hurting for offense either. Anthony Edwards looks like he’s ready to join the league’s top tier, as he is averaging 28.2 points per game with a 62.2% True Shooting Percentage. JVT and Kelley Bydlon both like him as a value bet to win MVP and it’s hard to argue with them. And Karl-Anthony Towns is one of the best shooters in the league, so he spaces the floor nicely for Minnesota. Overall, I just don’t think there’s that big of a talent gap between the Timberwolves and some of the league’s best teams. So, this number feels way off. Even if it doesn’t win, you could get some great opportunities to hedge if Minnesota at least makes some noise in the playoffs.
Chet Holmgren To Win Rookie of the Year (+425)
Victor Wembanyama’s 38-point performance against the Phoenix Suns on November 2 was tremendous. The 7-foot-4 phenom was scoring from all over the court and he also got the job done in crunch time. We simply haven’t seen a player anything like him, and that performance was a glimpse into his future. However, Wembanyama’s offensive efficiency hasn’t quite been there consistently this season. That was actually the only performance in which he truly looked like the player he is made out to be. Of course, I should mention that Wembanyama has been excellent defensively, where his outrageous length and superb movement skills already have him defending at a high level. But Wembanyama is currently a -350 favorite to win this award, which is an implied probability of 77.78%. That number just feels way off considering Holmgren has been the best rookie to this point, by far.
This season, Holmgren is averaging 17.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 2.4 blocks and 1.0 steals per game in 29.9 minutes per game. He has been a two-way force for an Oklahoma City Thunder team that is 4-3 and hoping to make the playoffs this season. Holmgren’s traditional stats are right on par with Wembanyama’s, but the former Gonzaga star has a True Shooting Percentage of 71.5%. Wembanyama’s is down at 56.5%. Holmgren also has Wembanyama beat in Offensive Win Shares, Defensive Win Shares, Offensive Box Plus Minus, Defensive Box Plus Minus and VORP. Those are some of the better advanced metrics out there (all available at Basketball-Reference) and Holmgren has him cleared by a significant margin. The crazy thing about some of Holmgren’s numbers is that he’s tied for 13th in the entire league in VORP, on par with guys like Edwards and Paul George. And he’s 15th in the league in BPM, which puts him ahead of LeBron James.
Wembanyama has been very impressive this season and I’d take him over any player in the league if I could start a franchise with anyone. But Wembanyama has been impressive for a rookie. Holmgren has played like an All-NBA forward. With that in mind, I think this market will need to change soon and I hope the voters don’t get too carried way with the hype. If things stay like this the remainder of the year, Holmgren will deserve his flowers.
Rudy Gobert To Win Defensive Player of the Year (10-1)
I had Gobert to win this award at 13-1 before the year, but I think this is something that should still be played at the current number and I’m adding more to my position. As previously mentioned, the Timberwolves are currently the best defensive team in the entire NBA. And Gobert is the anchor of that defense, as he is one of the best rim protectors in the league. Gobert became something of a punchline after the Timberwolves traded all of their assets to get him and the Frenchman responded with one of the worst years of his career. But through six games, Gobert looks a lot like the player he was with the Utah Jazz. Considering he won this award three times with Utah, that’s hard to ignore when betting this market. Gobert is also leading the league in Defensive Win Shares this year, so the advanced stats are matching the eye test. That said, I think we’re looking at one of the better comeback stories of the season here.
Naz Reid To Win Sixth Man of the Year (20-1) & Eric Gordon To Win Sixth Man of the Year (30-1)
Reid is currently averaging 15.7 points and 4.5 rebounds per game in 23.8 minutes per game for the Timberwolves. He’s also doing that on 55.7% shooting from the field, 46.4% shooting from 3 and 92.9% shooting from the charity stripe. Reid has been great as an instant offense guy off the bench for the Timberwolves and I don’t see that slowing down in the near future. So, if the Timberwolves do end up doing big things this season, Reid will likely end up being in the mix for this award.
As for Gordon, the veteran has mostly been starting for the Suns because of injuries to Devin Booker and Kevin Durant, but he’ll soon be heading for the bench. However, Gordon has already shown that he has a lot left in the tank, as he’s averaging 15.3 points per game this season. Gordon’s ability to space the floor is going to be a very valuable asset in Phoenix’s offense this year, and that means he’ll continue to play a big role even when the stars return. And I’d even go as far as to say that Gordon could continue to close games for the Suns, as they can use a shooter like him out there — and he happens to be a better defender than people think. So, if he continues to score in double figures and the Suns end up in the top half of the Western Conference, I think he’ll have a shot at this towards the end of the year.
