In the Western Conference semifinals the Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks clash with a berth in the Western Conference Finals on the line. Keep reading for a preview and prediction for this series. And make sure you check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Guide, which will serve as the hub for all of our postseason betting content!
Mavericks vs. Thunder Series Preview
Despite an incredible season in which Oklahoma City finished with the top seed in the Western Conference and the third-best ATS record in the league (49-36-1) there seems to be no love lost between the Thunder and the betting market.
One shop opened this series at -110 both ways and as of Saturday morning the price is -115 in favor of Oklahoma City at DraftKings. There was some market movement at other books that pushed this price to -125, but it’s clear that the betting market respects Dallas very much.
To be fair, it is easy to understand why. The Mavericks finished the regular season on a 16-4 SU and ATS run. If you include the series win over the Clippers, they are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games played. It’s been an impressive run for Dallas, which has obviously improved with their acquisitions at the trade deadline. However, it should not be lost on us how good Oklahoma City is.
On the floor, one of the primary areas of focus is going to be the paint, and how the Mavericks defend it.
Dallas did an amazing job cutting off the rim against Los Angeles. The Clippers took just 31.9% of their attempts at the rim and shot just 50.0%. They averaged just 42.0 points in the paint per game. Those figures are an extension of an improved interior defense which led the league in opponent rim shooting (62.3%) and ranked 8th in both opponent shots at the rim (29.9%) and opponent points in the paint (47.1) after the trade deadline. Los Angeles is not a team that got to the rim with regularity so defending them was a breeze for such a strong interior defense. That is not the case with Oklahoma City.
The Thunder will attack relentlessly. They led the league in drives per game (62.1) in the regular season. They shot 67.8% at the rim and 47.6% from short mid-range (4-to-14 feet), and they were 7th in points in the paint per game (52.5%). Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a mismatch hunter who gets to the paint with ease. He took 68% of his attempts inside 14 feet this season and shot 60.5%.
These teams played twice after the trade deadline, but only in one of those games did Dallas start the expected frontcourt that will see the floor in this series. In that game Oklahoma City went 26-of-36 (72.2%) on shots inside 14 feet and drew nine shooting fouls. There is no question that the Mavericks will have to be better than that in order to win this series.
On the other end, Dallas’ offensive approach will be interesting. Luka Doncic is methodical in how he plays. The Mavericks will run screens until Doncic gets the mismatch he wants, and then he will go to work. Los Angeles had a couple of targets for Doncic to attack in Ivica Zubac and James Harden, among others. The Thunder do not have as many.
Gilgeous-Alexander is an extremely sound defender. Lu Dort will most likely draw Doncic as the primary assignment and Jalen Williams is an above average defender as well. Josh Giddey and Chet Holmgren – who Kyrie Irving went after quite a bit in the penultimate regular season game with the Thunder – will likely be targets.
However, we saw Mark Daigneault throw out a zone defense against the Mavericks in the regular season in order to hide mismatches such as those. If Oklahoma City goes to a zone defense with regularity in this series it becomes much more interesting.
Dallas’ new starting lineup has been very effective, but it can be light on shooting. Derrick Jones Jr. shot 38.5% from deep in the series against Los Angeles, but in the regular season he was a 34.3% shooter. P.J. Washington shot just 31.4% as a Maverick and is a career 35.4% shooter. Doncic and Irving are fine shooters, but playing with three other non-shooting threats could be a problem if they face a high volume of zone defense in this series.
In fact, the Clippers threw double-teams at Doncic regularly when he was playing without Irving, and that led to some success. That is also the intriguing aspect of this series. When Doncic and Irving played together against Los Angeles those lineups were +20.6 per 100 possessions. When Doncic played without Irving, Dallas’ net rating was -17.6 and it was -45.6 when Irving played without Doncic.
Ultimately, this should be a very tight series. There is not much separating these two teams, but it does feel like Oklahoma City should be getting slightly more respect here. The opening series price, coupled with the Game 1 opening line of -2.5 at DraftKings, would suggest that Dallas is the slightly better team.
Up to this point of the postseason home teams have outscored opponents by 5.5 points every 100 possessions in non-garbage time. As previously discussed, playing at home matters and the Thunder have homecourt in this series. If these two teams were equals that would still mean a slightly higher probability of winning this series than the current market indicates.
That would lead me to looking at the Thunder here, and there is some agreement in the market. There are a few shops as high as -125 for the series and the shops that opened at -110 both ways have moved in favor of Oklahoma City.
Lean: Thunder to win series (-115)
