Today we have a jam packed 12-game NBA slate to choose from as we await the return of March Madness and MLB Opening Day. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games tonight.
7 p.m. ET: Golden State Warriors at Orlando Magic (-4.5, 218)
The Warriors (37-34) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 113-92 win over the Heat. Conversely, the Magic (42-29) just saw their five-game winning streak come to an end, falling to the Kings 109-107. This line opened with the Magic listed as a 4-point home favorite. Sharps have laid the points with Orlando, driving the Magic up from -4 to -4.5. Some shops are even creeping up to -5. The Magic are receiving 61% of spread bets and 91% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in their favor. The Magic enjoy a notable “rest vs tired” advantage as they last played on Saturday while the Warriors played last night. Fading teams on the second leg of a back-to-back is 191-171 ATS (53%) and 160-57 straight up (74%) this season. Sharps have also leaned under, as 69% of bets are taking the over yet the total has remained relatively stagnant, indicating a sharp under line freeze. The under is receiving 31% of bets but 58% of dollars, a sharp contrarian bet split. Orlando ranks 2nd overall in defensive efficiency and 25th in pace. The Magic are 8-3 to the under in March. The Warriors are 7-6 to the under in March.
7 p.m. ET: Brooklyn Nets (-3.5, 221) at Washington Wizards
The Nets (27-45) just snapped a six-game losing streak with a 96-88 win over the Raptors. Meanwhile, the Wizards (14-58) have won three-straight games and just edged the Bulls 107-105. This line opened with the Nets listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. Sharps seem to think this opener was a bit short and they’re steamed Brooklyn up from -2.5 to -3.5. The Nets are receiving 68% of spread bets and 91% of spread dollars, signaling modest public support but also heavy sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Those looking to protect themselves from a tight game that may not cover the spread may prefer a Nets moneyline play at -155. Road favorites are 282-123 straight up (70%) this season. Pros have also hammered the under, dropping the total from 225 to 221. The under is receiving 64% of bets but 84% of dollars, a sharp bet discrepancy. Both teams rank bottom 8 in terms of offensive efficiency. Unders are 102-88 (54%) in the month of March. If the total is 220 or more, unders are 64-51 (56%) in the month of March.
7:30 p.m. ET: Portland Trail Blazers at Atlanta Hawks (-10.5, 217)
The Trail Blazers (19-53) have lost six straight games and just fell to the Rockets 110-92. On the flip side, the Hawks (32-39) have won two straight and just shocked the Celtics 120-118. This line opened with the Hawks listed as an 11-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite the tickets being split 50/50 we’ve seen Atlanta inch down slightly from -11 to -10.5, which indicates slight sharp action on the Blazers plus the points. However, pros are much more interested in the total here. It opened at 214 and has been steamed up to 217, signaling sharp action playing the over. The over is receiving 70% of bets but 83% of dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy. Atlanta ranks 5th in pace, 10th in offensive efficiency and 28th in defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Portland ranks 22nd in defensive efficiency. When the total is 217 or less, the over is 59-42 (58%) this season. The Blazers are 10-5 to the over in the month of March, the top over team in the NBA this month. The Hawks are 38-33 (54%) to the over this season, the 5th best over team in the NBA overall.
