Detroit Pistons season preview
This preview originally appeared in our 2023-24 VSiN NBA Betting Guide, which was released on Thursday, October 5. To become a VSiN Pro subscriber and get all of our NBA coverage throughout the season, click here.
Pistons Betting Odds
NBA Finals: +60000
Conference: +30000
Division: +20000
Win Total: 27.5
Playoffs: Yes (+950)
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Team Analysis
Detroit was a popular wager at the window in the offseason last year, but poor health to key players tanked a once-promising season. Health will be key this year if the Pistons are to take legitimate steps forward in their youth movement, specifically when it comes to their potential superstar Cade Cunningham.
Cunningham has played only 76 games in his first two seasons in the NBA, but despite the small sample size the potential has been clear. He averaged 19.9 points, 6.2 rebounds and 6.0 assists in the 12 games last season, and in both years he had a positive net differential for Detroit. In the short window in which he played before being injured last season, he showed an improved mid-range game by shooting 42.7% on mid-range attempts, and he’s already proven to be an adept passer in his time in the NBA. He also turned heads during his time with the Team USA select team this summer. His health is the top priority for Detroit if they are going to win more than 23 games for the first time since the 2018-2019 season.
However, Cunningham’s presence will only be part of the battle for the Pistons. This team needs to improve on both ends of the floor in a big way, as they finished 28th in non-garbage time net rating (-8.6) and 29th in both offensive (110.6) and defensive (119.2) efficiency.
For the offense, better shooting will go a long way toward improving their output. Detroit shot just 35.9% from beyond the arc last season, and some of those inefficiencies can be chalked up to variance. The Pistons were 19th in 3-point percentage on uncontested looks last season (38.2%) despite generating the 11th-most per game. Cleaning The Glass’ location effective field goal percentage (a metric that tells you what a team’s effective field goal percentage would be if they shot league average from the floor) had them at 54.8% compared to the actual 52.3% the team posted.
Cunningham’s presence and ability as a passer should allow this team to continue generating uncontested looks, and improved personnel will bring up this team’s shooting floor.
Joe Harris could be a trade candidate at the deadline due to his expiring deal, but he is a career 43.7% shooter who hit 42.9% of his catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts last season. Monte Morris is also on an expiring deal, but he is a deadly shooter with a career 39.2% hit rate who can play off-ball next to guys like Cunningham if need be.
But those are the veterans. If it is going to succeed this season, the real driving force for this team will be the other young pieces on the roster.
Jaden Ivey averaged 16.3 points, 3.9 rebounds and 5.2 assists last season, but he did it on an inefficient 41.6% shooting from the floor. He also failed to impact the team positively on the defensive end. He finished in the 11th percentile in foul rate (4.2%), and when he was on the floor, the Pistons allowed 5.3 more points per 100 possessions. His efficiency will likely improve by playing with Cunningham, but his awareness on the defensive end will need to improve greatly.
Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart have proven to be very good frontcourt players. Duren specifically was one of the key factors in the Pistons’ success on the offensive glass. He ranked in the 92nd percentile in offensive rebounding rate (13.4%) and improved the team’s overall offensive rebounding rate by 3.3% when on the floor. Stewart was a tremendous rim protector who improved Detroit’s defensive field goal percentage at the rim by 3.4% when on the floor. Their trajectory is positive, so both need to stay healthy this season.
Ausar Thompson joins the team as the fifth overall selection in the 2023 draft, and he gives the Pistons a legit wing defender. His shooting could be a question, but he will also make this team deadly in transition.
This season will be all about the development of the young players on this roster and the health of Cunningham. Should Detroit’s franchise player be able to stay on the floor, this team should take the steps forward the betting market expected it to last season.
Win Total Analysis
Detroit’s win total of 27.5 is two wins shorter than the closing number last season, but one could argue that this team is better than last offseason. Ivey and Duren now have a year of NBA games under their belt, and the additions of Harris and Morris give the Pistons two knockdown shooters the team did not have last season. The front office also upgraded the head coaching position with the hire of Monty Williams. If there was a coach who could maximize the production of a young roster like this, it would be Williams.
The schedule does present some challenges for Detroit. It only gets six games with a true rest advantage, and their nine games in which they will be at a disadvantage give them a negative net rest advantage. The Pistons are also among the nine teams with 15 back-to-backs this season, and they do not get a homestand of more than three games until January. Detroit is young, but those will be challenges that will work against this team surpassing its win total.
Still, it is hard to ignore this team’s potential, especially if Cunningham can stay healthy. Their second-year players received great experience, and the veterans on this roster fill the holes nicely. There is certainly a chance some of those older players are gone after the trade deadline, but for now, they are Pistons, and this is a team that can deliver on the hype it received a season prior.
Win Total Recommendation: OVER 27.5
