Expert NBA Best Bets and Player Props Today – Monday, December 11th
The 2023-24 NBA season has begun and we’re excited over here at VSiN. As always, Jonathan Von Tobel will be providing you with his exceptional coverage of the greatest league in the world. Just click here for all of his content. However, all of my picks will be featured in this daily column, which will combine my best bets and player props. I’ll be doing this every single day of the week — although it’ll be a little shorter on the weekends. So, keep reading to find out how I’m playing the NBA slate on Monday, December 11. Also, check out our NBA Odds page for the latest line movement.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on December 11
2023 Record: 87-57-1 (+29.87 units)
NBA Best Bets Today – December 11
Indiana Pacers at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 pm ET
The Pacers didn’t end up winning the NBA In-Season Tournament, but they still flew out to Las Vegas for the weekend. That likely means that some of the Indiana players enjoyed themselves quite a bit, so I’d be surprised if the team is at 100% physically after having traveled to Detroit for this game. On top of that, we don’t know what type of mental toll the loss will take on the Pacers, but I can see this being something of a letdown game for them. How exactly will they go from playing the Los Angeles Lakers in a big spot to facing a Pistons team that has lost 19 in a row? I think they’ll struggle with it.
I also do genuinely believe that Detroit is going to be a good against-the-spread team down the stretch. I know things have been miserable for the Pistons lately, but getting Bojan Bogdanovic back should make these pieces start to fit together. This team was really lacking in 3-point shooting around Cade Cunningham in the first quarter of the season, but Bogdanovic should help space the floor. That will be big against a Pacers team that wants to play a high-scoring game. The Pistons will need some shot making if the game does turn into a shootout. However, I do think you’re going to see Detroit try and slow this down as much as possible, taking its time in half-court settings to try and throw Indiana off.
Overall, I know it can be hard to back this struggling Pistons team. But it’s a well-rested group getting a ton of points against a team that might not be in a good headspace right now.
Bet: Pistons +7.5 (-110)
Denver Nuggets at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 pm ET
The Nuggets are just 5-8 straight-up and 3-10 ATS on the road this season, and they are also coming into this one on a three-game losing streak. Of course, the Hawks have also lost three games in a row, and Atlanta is generally a tough team to get behind. But I do think the Hawks have a good chance of pulling out an upset here.
It’s just hard to overlook the fact that Denver is just 17th in the league in defensive rating over the last 10 games. Atlanta is fifth in the league in offensive rating and third in the league in pace, so the Hawks can do a lot of damage against that struggling defense by pushing the tempo. Trae Young and Dejounte Murray should both enjoy facing this version of the Nuggets, as they aren’t very good at defending the perimeter. And I also think some of Atlanta’s wings will be able to successfully spread the floor and really make life difficult on Denver.
The Nuggets also happen to play at the fifth-slowest pace in the league offensively, so they won’t be thrilled with the Hawks trying to get out and run. That’ll potentially result in a tired Nikola Jokic at the end of the game, giving Atlanta the opening it needs to potentially win this thing. I’m simply not a big believer in Denver right now and think the team will need to swing a deal or two before the deadline to address its depth concerns.
Bet: Hawks +2.5 (-108)
Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 pm ET
The Over has hit in six of the last seven games that the Bulls have played, and the team has actually scored at least 120 points in three of its last four. Chicago is playing some much better basketball on the offensive end lately, with DeMar DeRozan being a big part of that. The Bulls have put the ball in his hands more, and he has been making the right plays as the lead ball handler. With that in mind, it isn’t hard to see a scenario in which Chicago has another big offensive game against a Milwaukee team that has allowed at least 120 points in five consecutive games. The Bucks are also just 22nd in the league in defensive rating, so getting stops has been a struggle all year.
The Bucks also shouldn’t be hurting for offense in a game like this. This Bulls team is just 21st in the league in defensive rating, which is a heck of a drop from last year’s fifth-ranked defense. Chicago is also giving up more made 3s per game than anybody this season, so Damian Lillard and Co. should have some openings to knock down some triples. This should also be a game in which Giannis Antetokounmpo does his part in helping out Over bettors, as the Bulls don’t really have any good rim protectors.
All in all, I just think this will be a very high-scoring game. These teams combined to score 233 points when they met on November 30, and I can see them easily eclipsing that mark here.
Bet: Over 232.5 (-115 – Play to 233.5)
NBA Player Props Today – December 11
Washington Wizards at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 pm ET
Tyus Jones had 20 points, eight assists and three rebounds against the Sixers on December 6, which gave him a total of 31 points, assists and rebounds in the game. Well, tonight I’m looking for Jones to have just 21 of those against the same team. I feel really good about the 27-year-old hitting that mark, as this game has a total of 244 and should be played at a ridiculously high pace. With that being the case, I love getting a low number like this on a guard that should play big minutes for the Wizards. Jones is one of the better defensive guards on this team, so Washington really can’t afford to keep him on the bench too much against a good Sixers team. And Jones is a player that can knock down open 3s and do a decent job of attacking the basket. So, his numbers should come in this shootout.
Bet: Jones Over 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-110)
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