The 2023-24 NBA season is in full swing and we’re tackling it hard at VSiN. As always, Jonathan Von Tobel will be providing you with his exceptional coverage of the greatest league in the world. Just click here for all of his content. However, all of my picks will be featured in this daily column, which will combine my NBA best bets and NBA player props. So, keep reading to find out how I’m playing the NBA slate on Monday, March 18. Also, check out our NBA Odds page for the latest line movement.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on March 18
2023 Record: 264-266-2 (-7.28 units)
NBA Best Bets Today – March 18
Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:30 pm ET
The Heat are coming off a wild win over the Detroit Pistons yesterday. Detroit made a late run to tie it up in the fourth quarter, but Bam Adebayo hit a deep 3 to win it for Miami at the buzzer. Now, the Heat are playing for the second day in a row. That naturally means that some players will sit this one out. But it would have to be a lengthy injury report to scare me off the Heat in this spot. The Sixers might be coming off a day of rest, but this has been a bad basketball team lately. Over the last 15 games, Philadelphia is just 24th in the league in net rating. And the Sixers are also just 23rd in offensive rating in that span. That’s not good in a matchup against a Heat team that is sixth in defensive rating in that timeframe.
As long as one of Jimmy Butler or Bam Adebayo are out there for Miami, along with a few other rotation pieces, I trust Erik Spoelstra to roll into the Wells Fargo Center and come away with a victory. And Adebayo is already listed as available, with Butler listed as questionable. That’s a good start.
Nick Nurse is trying his best to get more out of this Joel Embiid-less Sixers team, and having Tyrese Maxey back helps. But there’s just not a lot to like about Philadelphia right now. And getting the Heat at plus-money odds is too hard to pass up with my NBA best bets.
Bet: Heat ML (+120 – 2 units)
Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics – 7:30 pm ET
The Pistons are coming off an emotional loss to the Heat yesterday, but I still like them to cover this big of a spread. I know Boston is as explosive as any team in the league, and the group happens to be coming off a 26-point road win over the Washington Wizards. However, Detroit has covered in eight of its last 12 games. This team has been consistently competitive over the last couple of months. And the Pistons only lost by six as 17-point underdogs when they played the Celtics in Boston back in December.
One thing to like about this matchup is that the Pistons have been defending the 3-point line at a high level over the last 15 games. In that time, opponents are shooting just 34.9% from deep against Detroit. And the Pistons are only giving up 11.8 3s per game since then. They’ll need to continue to be diligent about defending the 3, as the Celtics shoot them better than any team in the league. But it also helps that Detroit just has a lot of size scattered throughout the rotation. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have both been aggressive about going to the rim and bullying people for buckets. That’ll be hard against this Pistons team.
The only concern I have with Detroit is that the offense might stall out against this elite Boston defense. But the Pistons don’t need to play all that well in order to cover this big of a spread. And they’re actually 21-12 against the spread this year when playing a team that beat them earlier in the season.
Bet: Pistons +15.5 (-110)
Atlanta Hawks at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:30 pm ET
The Hawks are playing their second game in a row, while the Lakers have played just once in the last four days. I usually like to play the well-rested team in this spot. But I have a hard time trusting this Los Angeles team to win by double digits. I know Atlanta has had some rough losses in the last week, but last night’s 110-93 win over the Los Angeles Clippers was very impressive. The Hawks got back to playing physical and disciplined defense, which is something we have seen from them quite a bit since Trae Young went out with an injury. That said, I like Atlanta to do a decent job of stifling a Los Angeles team that isn’t anything special offensively.
It helps that the Lakers are a team that doesn’t always show up defensively. If they’re lazy on that end of the floor here, Atlanta will make Los Angeles pay. The Hawks aren’t as loaded as usual offensively, but Dejounte Murray, Bogdan Bogdanovic and De’Andre Hunter are all capable of getting hot from deep. And overall, Quin Snyder is a much better coach than Darvin Ham. So, Snyder should be able to come up with a successful plan of attack here.
Bet: Hawks +9 (-114 – 1.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – March 18
New York Knicks at Golden State Warriors – 10:00 pm ET
The Knicks won’t have OG Anunoby tonight, which means more will fall on Jalen Brunson’s shoulders. But the Warriors aren’t going to sit back and let Brunson beat them. They’re going to do everything they can to get the ball out of his hands. Brunson has been one of the most blitzed players in the league this season. And Golden State has some defenders that can make Brunson uncomfortable. That said, I’m taking the Over on his assists. I just like the chances of a few unorganized Warriors traps leading to buckets, in addition to Brunson being able to create for teammates in pick-and-roll situations, or drive-and-kick plays. Brunson has had at least six assists in 42 of the 62 games he has played this year. Why not back him to do it again with today’s NBA player props?
Bet: Brunson Over 5.5 Assists (-150 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
Jazz +6 vs. Timberwolves (-110 – 2 units) & Jazz ML (+205 – 0.5 units) – With Markkanen back, the Jazz will have some much-needed offensive juice. Will Hardy is also a very smart head coach, so he should be able to find some things to fix from Saturday’s meeting between these teams. And Utah is a hard enough place to win to begin with, so it’ll be difficult for Minnesota to do it twice in a row. I’m playing the Jazz to cover the spread, but I’m also sprinkling this moneyline.
Warriors 2H ML (-115 – 1.5 units) vs. Knicks
Grizzles +4 2H (-110 – 2 units) vs. Grizzlies
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