The start of the 2024-25 NBA season is officially here. Make sure you check out the fantastic work of Jonathan Von Tobel, who writes up his best bets daily. Also, try and listen to A Numbers Game every morning, as Kelley Bydlon often dishes out his favorite NBA picks. But I’ll be giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Monday, October 28th.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on October 28th
NBA Best Bets Today – October 28th
Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 pm ET
This is the second leg of a back-to-back and the third game in four nights for the Hawks, which factors heavily into my decision to back the Wizards tonight. Targeting teams in bad rest spots can be very profitable in the NBA.
Atlanta also happens to be 29th in the league in adjusted defensive rating (114.9) this season, so this team could breath some life into a struggling Washington offense. The Wizards are just 28th in the NBA in adjusted offensive rating (108.3) this year, so they’ll welcome this matchup with open arms. Washington is going to shoot a ton of 3s in this one, testing an Atlanta defense that has allowed more 3s per game (18.0) than all but one team this season. The Wizards also play at a very fast pace, much like the Hawks do, and that should be advantageous against an opponent with tired legs.
Also, while Atlanta is 2-1 to start the season, the team is 0-3 against the spread. The Hawks are also 0-8 ATS when coming off a road blowout loss of 20 or more points since last season, and they’re also just 19-36 ATS as favorites under Quin Snyder. Meanwhile, the Wizards are 6-0 ATS when coming off a home loss of 10 or more points since last season, and they’re also 12-2 ATS when facing teams that allow at least 116.0 points per game since then.
Bet: Wizards +7.5 (-110)
Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns – 10:00 pm ET
The Lakers are off to a scorching hot start this season, as they’re 3-0 and have the fourth-best adjusted offensive rating (114.3) in the league. Los Angeles also happened to earn a win over Phoenix just last week, which is why there’s some real public interest in grabbing the points with the Lakers. However, the Suns will be looking for revenge at the Footprint Center, and there are some real reasons to believe that Phoenix can easily cover this number.
For starters, the Suns are right there with the Lakers in adjusted offensive rating (114.2), and they have been a little better when it comes to adjusted defensive rating. Phoenix is 10th (110.6) and Los Angeles is 17th (111.6). Also, the Suns were generating open 3s at an alarming clip against the Lakers last game. And while Phoenix was burying those looks in the first half, the team went cold in the second half. Well, with this being a home game, the Suns could get hot again. They’re tied for third in the NBA in 3-point shooting percentage (40.4%) this season, and they didn’t have Grayson Allen when the two met at Crypto.com Arena. It seems like Allen will be back out there tonight, meaning Phoenix will have another floor-spacer to exploit the Los Angeles defense.
The Suns should also be able to expect a better performance from Jusuf Nurkic tonight. The big man had four points on 1 for 5 shooting from the floor in the last meeting between these teams. He also was limited to 18 minutes because of his four fouls — and four costly turnovers. Nurkic was a lot more comfortable out there in a win over the Mavericks on Saturday, finishing with 18 points and 14 rebounds. Look for him to be a lot closer to that than the Friday performance.
It’s also only a matter of time before we see a big-time performance from Devin Booker. He’s averaging just 19.7 points per game on 42.9% shooting from the field. Considering he is in the prime of his career and averaged 27.1 points per game on 49.2% shooting last year, he’s going to come bursting out of this slump soon. Don’t be surprised if tonight is the night.
Bet: Suns -3.5 (-110 – 1.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – October 28th
Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 pm ET
Not only am I rolling with Washington to keep this game close, but I’m also going Over on Jordan Poole’s made 3s. Only the Jazz are allowing more than the 18.0 triples per game that the Hawks are allowing this season. And only two teams are allowing opponents to shoot better than 40.3% from 3, which is what opponents are shooting against Atlanta. This Hawks team has looked good to start the season, but they are not defending the 3-point line. Meanwhile, Poole has knocked down 10 of his 18 attempts from 3 this season. He’s really firing away from deep, and he’s looking very confident to start the year. So, I expect him to get up his share of shots in this one, and I’m feeling good about him knocking down three or more.
Bet: Poole Over 2.5 Made 3s (-150)
Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks – 7:30 pm ET
Jarrett Allen isn’t known for being a scorer, but he is averaging a career-high 18.0 points per game through three games. Allen’s role in Kenny Atkinson’s offense isn’t any bigger, but he’s benefitting from all of the new actions and improved off-ball movement around him. The new system is getting Allen a lot of easy shots at the rim. Allen’s actually shooting just 8.0 shots per game thus far, and that’s the lowest amount of shots he has taken since he was with the Nets in 2020-21. But Allen is shooting 83.3% from the floor, and that’s making up for the lack of volume in a big way.
Tonight, I don’t see any of that changing. Defensively, New York is probably weakest at the center position, with Karl-Anthony Towns now holding down that spot. Towns isn’t much of a defender and can get lost when teams run a lot at him. So, Allen should slip by for a couple of easy ones here. Also, Towns is a player that can really get himself into foul trouble, and this is a game in which he could run into some issues. Cleveland has two very good bigs in Allen and Evan Mobley, so Towns might be a little overaggressive. And if Towns does need to sit on the bench for more than he usually does, those two will feast.
Allen also scored 18 points in his only meeting with the Knicks last season, and that was a team that much better suited to guard opposing bigs.
Bet: Allen Over 14.5 Points (-105)
Added Plays
Kings -12.5 (-110) vs. Trail Blazers
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2024-25 NBA Record: 15-12 (4.00 units)
