The start of the 2024-25 NBA season is officially here. Make sure you check out the fantastic work of Jonathan Von Tobel, who writes up his best bets daily. Also, try and listen to A Numbers Game every morning, as Kelley Bydlon often dishes out his favorite NBA picks. But I’ll be giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Tuesday, October 29th.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on October 29th
NBA Best Bets Today – October 29th
Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves – 7:30 pm ET
The Mavericks beat the Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals last year. I get that. However, these are very different teams than they were a couple of months ago. The Mavericks, who were playing elite defense last year, are a little worse on that end of the floor this season. That comes with letting Derrick Jones Jr. walk. Jones was the team’s best wing defender last year, and he shot the 3 well enough to play significant minutes. The Mavericks were hoping Naji Marshall could be his replacement, but the 26-year-old is 0 for 6 from the outside this season. And his lack of production offensively is a big part of the reason the Mavericks are only playing him 17.3 minutes per game. Instead, Dallas is leaning fully into being an offensive-minded team, and the addition of a red-hot Klay Thompson has helped the Mavericks settle in at second in the league in Dunks & Threes’ full-strength offensive rating (+3.5).
The problem for Dallas is that Minnesota is fifth in the league in full-strength defensive rating (+2.8). This Timberwolves team is still elite on that end of the floor, and they might have only gotten better in swapping out Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo. When engaged, Randle is fully capable of being average on that end of the floor, and DiVincenzo is a pest at the point of attack. That said, I like Minnesota’s chances of giving this Dallas team trouble.
The new-look Timberwolves are also better suited to give the Mavericks trouble on offense. For as good as Towns is, Dallas was able to pressure Anthony Edwards in last year’s playoff series, forcing the young star to give up the ball and hope that his teammates could create offense for themselves. They couldn’t. But Randle absolutely can. He’s a monster in isolation and can score in a number of different ways. In fact, Randle has led the team in scoring in back-to-back games.
We saw the full proof of concept for this Minnesota team in the win over Sacramento over the weekend. Edwards and Randle took turns cooking the Kings offensively, and the Wolves locked in on the other end in the second half.
Overall, I just like what we’re seeing from the Timberwolves right now, and I strongly believe they’re going to realize their full potential before the Mavericks. And as of right now, Minnesota’s offense isn’t as big of a problem as Dallas’ defense, meaning the Mavericks have the biggest weakness between these two. This is also the third game in four nights for Dallas, and the second leg of a back-to-back. And if that’s not enough, the Timberwolves have oddly been pretty unreliable against the spread in recent seasons, but they’re 17-15 ATS as favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points dating back to last year.
Bet: Timberwolves -4.5 (-115)
NOTE: I was able to grab a 4.5, but I’d play it up to 5.
NBA Player Props Today – October 29th
Denver Nuggets at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 pm ET
I have always been extremely high on Cam Thomas. For those that don’t know, I do a little work analyzing NBA Draft prospects throughout the year, and I had Thomas very high on my draft board heading into the 2021 NBA Draft. He was born to score the basketball, and that’s something I knew would translate from college to the NBA. That said, I’m really enjoying this mini-breakout from Thomas to start the year. Through three games, the Nets guard is averaging a career-high 30.7 points per game, and he also has career-highs in shooting percentages across the board. Now, Thomas will look to keep things rolling against a Nuggets team that has slipped defensively — and also happens to be playing the second leg of a back-to-back. And while I like Thomas to give Denver plenty of buckets tonight, I’m actually rolling with him to record at least four assists.
Thomas is averaging just 2.7 assists per game this season, which is down a little from last year’s 2.9. But Thomas’ usage rate is up from 30.5% to 32.4%, according to Basketball Reference. And that number should only go up tonight, as Ben Simmons is out to manage soreness in his back. That also means that the Nets can use a little extra playmaking, and Thomas should be the one to supply it. Even if his first instinct is to score the basketball, he is capable of making reads and getting his teammates involved. Also, Denver doesn’t have anybody that can cover Thomas individually, so the team will likely have to blitz him pretty often. That means that Thomas will simply need to get the ball out of his hands and trust in his teammates. That should ultimately lead to some assists.
Thomas’ assist numbers should also be better this season. While he’s averaging only 2.7 dimes per game, he’s averaging 8.0 potential assists per game. That means his teammates simply aren’t cashing in on opportunities. His adjusted assists per game is 3.3, putting him not too far away from hitting the number we need for tonight’s plus-money payout. And I think the uptick in usage with Simmons out will be enough to get him there.
Bet: Thomas Over 3.5 Assists (+114)
Sacramento Kings at Utah Jazz – 9:00 pm ET
Kevin Huerter has been playing very well for the Kings over the last two games. Huerter had 14 points in 26 minutes against the Lakers on Saturday, and he followed it up with 18 points in 33 minutes against the Blazers. The shooting guard is now up to 11.3 points per game on 52.0% shooting from the floor and 42.1% shooting from deep. As long as Huerter is scoring this efficiently, Mike Brown is going to have no choice but to give him 25 or so minutes per night. And if he does get that type of playing time, I can’t imagine him failing to score nine points against the Jazz.
Utah is last in the league in adjusted defensive rating this season (115.6), and the team also plays at the seventh-fastest pace in the NBA. So, this Jazz team is looking to get involved in uptempo games, and that should mean that Huerter will have his chances to score. And honestly, he should get some very good chances. This season, only three teams in the league are giving up more 3s per game than Utah (16.0). And teams are also shooting more 3s per game (44.7) against the Jazz than any other team in the league.
This just feels like a dream matchup for a spot-up shooter. So, even though Huerter is last in the pecking order in this Kings starting lineup, I expect him to have a big offensive impact here.
Bet: Huerter Over 8.5 Points (-120)
_________________________________________________
2024-25 NBA Record: 20-12 (9.50 units)
