Expert NBA Best Bets and Player Props Today – Wednesday, December 13th
The 2023-24 NBA season has begun and we’re excited over here at VSiN. As always, Jonathan Von Tobel will be providing you with his exceptional coverage of the greatest league in the world. Just click here for all of his content. However, all of my picks will be featured in this daily column, which will combine my best bets and player props. I’ll be doing this every single day of the week — although it’ll be a little shorter on the weekends. So, keep reading to find out how I’m playing the NBA slate on Wednesday, December 13. Also, check out our NBA Odds page for the latest line movement.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on December 13
2023 Record: 89-62-1 (+26.30 units)
NBA Best Bets Today – December 13
Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat – 7:30 pm ET
These teams met in Charlotte the other night, when the Heat came away with a 116-114 victory as 4-point favorites. Now, the Hornets are getting a lot more points because the game is in South Beach, but I don’t think the Heat’s home-court advantage is good for this big of a difference. And overall, I think we just saw that Charlotte can hang with this Miami team, and I’m not sure that was any sort of fluke.
Over the last five games, the Heat are just 26th in the league in defensive rating. That coincides with Bam Adebayo, one of the league’s Defensive Player of the Year candidates, going down with a hip injury. Well, Adebayo will be out for Miami tonight, so Charlotte should be able to score rather efficiently. That alone will make it hard for the Heat to cover such a big spread. It’s also a little hard to ignore that Miami went to the line 34 times the other night. I’d be shocked if the Heat get that many calls again, meaning less free points for a team that isn’t great offensively.
It’s also worth mentioning that the Heat are just 26-46 against the spread versus teams that allow 116.0 or more points per game under Erik Spoelstra. And I think a lot of that has to do with Miami’s offense not necessarily being capable of exposing awful defensive teams.
Bet: Hornets +8.5 (-115 – Play to +7.5)
Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs – 8:00 pm ET
I mentioned on the Hardwood Handicappers podcast that I’m not exactly sold on the Lakers offensively. However, one way to make an average offense look great is by having them face the Spurs. This season, San Antonio is just 25th in the league in defensive rating, even though the team has a stellar defender in rookie Victor Wembanyama. The Spurs are giving up more 3s per game than all but two teams in the NBA, and only the Memphis Grizzlies are allowing opponents to shoot a higher percentage from 3. So, Los Angeles’ shooters should cook a little bit here, making it hard not to love the Over in this game — as long as San Antonio’s offense can pitch in a little.
This season, the Over is 14-8 in the 22 games that the Spurs have played, and it’s also 9-2 in the 11 home games they have played. Part of that has to do with the fact that San Antonio is averaging 5.1 more points per game when playing at home. That’s a good sign heading into this game. I also like the fact that the Over is 38-22 in the road games the Lakers have played over the last two seasons.
Bet: Over 230.5 (-110)
Brooklyn Nets at Phoenix Suns – 9:00 pm ET
The Suns didn’t cover my -3.5 last night, as they completely fell apart late in the game. However, I don’t think Phoenix is laying enough points in tonight’s contest. Frank Vogel said yesterday that Bradley Beal would be playing this evening, even though it’s the second night of a back-to-back. So, between Devin Booker and Beal, the Suns should have enough firepower to beat a Nets team that they are better than on both ends of the floor. And if Kevin Durant ends up playing, that’s just gravy.
I just don’t think Brooklyn has the type of perimeter defending it needs to slow down this Phoenix backcourt. If Ben Simmons was out there, I’d potentially feel differently about that. Mikal Bridges will likely handle one of the two assignments, but who is taking the other? Also, Bridges isn’t the same defender he was when he was in Phoenix. The wing has taken on a bigger load offensively in Brooklyn, so he doesn’t have the energy to run around and compete on the defensive end like he used to.
Overall, I just think this will be a game that is somewhat close heading into the fourth quarter. But I’d be surprised if the Suns don’t take it home from there, as they have the best two scorers on the court. And Phoenix needs to take games like these pretty seriously moving forward, as the Suns have work to do in order to try and earn home-court advantage in the playoffs. They dug a hole early in the year.
Bet: Suns -2 (-112 – Play to -2.5)
NBA Player Props Today – December 13
Atlanta Hawks at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 pm ET
Dennis Schroder is averaging 15.3 points, 7.0 assists and 3.0 rebounds per game this season, which is good for a combined 25.3 points, assists and rebounds a night. Well, his total is down at 24.5 for that player combo tonight, and I absolutely love the Over. I just don’t think Schroder can ask for a better matchup, as he’s facing a Hawks team that simply can’t defend the perimeter. He should live in the paint this evening, as he’ll be able to blow by Trae Young and Dejounte Murray regularly. That should give Schroder some opportunities to finish at the rim or find some teammates. And he’ll also get some open looks from 3, as Atlanta doesn’t guard the 3-pont line particularly well. Schroder isn’t the most reliable shooter in the world, but he’s more than willing to take them. And a make or two will go a long way in helping him hit this Over.
Bet: Schroder Over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-118)
Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 pm ET
I really flirted with the -175 odds for Bruce Brown to hit just one 3 tonight, and I’d suggest taking that if you’re up on the season and can afford to deal with that type of juice. But for those that can’t, I’m playing Brown to make at least two 3s at +250 for 0.5 units. This game against the Bucks should be an extremely high-scoring affair, and both of these teams will be letting the outside shots fly. Brown actually hasn’t made a triple since December 4, which is why you’re seeing him priced like this. But Brown did take four 3s against the Pistons, and he’s attempting 3.5 triples per game in the month of December. So, even though he isn’t shooting well, Brown hasn’t stopped getting his shots up. That means that the forward is due to start hitting them soon. This is a guy that shot 35.8% from 3 last year and he has had five games in which he has made multiple 3s this season. So, he can be counted on to knock down jumpers. I expect him to come out of this slump too, and guys generally tend to make shots in bunches when they finally see one go through.
Bet: Brown 2+ Made 3s (+250 – 0.5 units)
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