The 2023-24 NBA regular season is over and we have turned the page to the NBA Playoffs. Throughout the postseason, Jonathan Von Tobel will continue to provide you with his exceptional coverage of the greatest league in the world. Just click here for all of his content. However, all of my picks will be featured in this daily column, which will combine my NBA best bets and NBA player props. So, keep reading to find out how I’m playing the playoff games on Saturday, May 18th. Also, check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our series previews and additional postseason content.
We also put together an NBA Playoffs Betting Primer with in-depth analysis for everything you’ll see the next couple of weeks.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on May 18
NBA Best Bets Today – May 18
Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks – 8:00 pm ET
Outside of a poor performance in Game 1, this series has really been pretty one-sided. The Mavericks had me second-guessing them after blowing Game 4, but the reality is that it took a pretty monumental collapse for the Thunder to steal that game. Dallas went 12 for 23 from the free throw line and the team got uncharacteristically sloppy late. But the Mavericks followed it up with a 104-92 road beatdown, taking back the control of this series. And it’s just becoming clear that this Oklahoma City team doesn’t have enough offensively to consistently beat a Dallas team that was as good as anyone defensively after the All-Star break. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is doing his part for the Thunder, but he’s not getting much help. And I just don’t see that changing in a road Game 6. On top of that, Luka Doncic looked relatively healthy last game, as he had 31 points, 11 assists and 10 rebounds. If he’s back to playing like the superstar we all know, we should see curtains this evening.
The Mavericks have also been really good about backing up big defensive performances this season. They’re 11-2 against the spread when coming off a game in which they allowed 100 or fewer points, and they have won those games by an average of 7.0 points per game. With all of that in mind, I feel pretty good about laying a small number with Dallas. Hopefully the Mavericks get it done and don’t cause me to flip-flop one more time.
Bet: Mavericks -3.5 (-110)
NBA Player Props Today – May 18
Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks – 8:00 pm ET
Derrick Jones Jr. is averaging 18.0 points per game over the last two games. Of course, he’s a bit of an afterthought in Dallas’ offense, so he’s always at risk of disappearing. But he’s averaging 29.8 minutes per game because of his perimeter defense, so he’s going to get a lot of playing time here. And he generally gets nothing but good looks, as opponents can’t possibly pay attention to him when they’re also being tasked with guarding Doncic and Kyrie Irving. That said, I’m willing to take a shot on him scoring 10 points in this game. It doesn’t hurt that he’s good in transition and can be a lob-catching threat. If he can just knock down a 3 or two, we’ll be in great shape.
Bet: Jones Jr. Over 9.5 Points (-115)
2023-24 Record: 372-400-3 (+15.43 units)
