The 2023-24 NBA regular season is over and we have turned the page to the NBA Playoffs. Throughout the postseason, Jonathan Von Tobel will continue to provide you with his exceptional coverage of the greatest league in the world. Just click here for all of his content. However, all of my picks will be featured in this daily column, which will combine my NBA best bets and NBA player props. So, keep reading to find out how I’m playing the playoff games on Sunday, May 12th. Also, check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our series previews and additional postseason content.
We also put together an NBA Playoffs Betting Primer with in-depth analysis for everything you’ll see the next couple of weeks.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on May 12
NBA Best Bets Today – May 12
Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 pm ET
I don’t think the Nuggets will manhandle the Timberwolves again, but I don’t think it was a fluke that Denver won Game 3. And I think the Nuggets are going to send this back to Denver at 2-2. The Nuggets clearly found something to exploit in the Timberwolves defense, and that was Minnesota’s aggressiveness in closing out and helping. The Nuggets just calmly played through Nikola Jokic in Game 3, but they were much quicker to just move the ball around to the open man and attack space. And I don’t know exactly what Minnesota will be able to do to adjust, as the team’s aggression and tenacity defensively is what made it great all year. So playing a little safer on that end of the floor could make things easier on opponents. We also saw Jamal Murray get comfortable in the series. That alone makes Denver dangerous again.
Look for Jokic to once again pick apart this Timberwolves team. Once he figures out what he’s looking at, he tends to be pretty unstoppable — whether it’s as a scorer or distributor. Of course, Anthony Edwards and the Timberwolves will punch back after that miserable Game 3 performance. But will it be enough? Denver is plenty capable of beating good teams on the road, and the Nuggets won’t get flustered in crunch time.
Bet: Nuggets ML (+128 – 1.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – May 12
New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers – 3:30 pm ET
I had Pascal Siakam to go Over 20.5 points in Game 3. Well, I like him to go Over 21.5 points in Game 4. It was just clear in Game 3 that the Knicks didn’t have an answer for him. Even with Siakam having no confidence in his jumper, he found ways to score with OG Anunoby out. And Anunoby has already been ruled out for Game 4. So, look for Siakam to be aggressive in going to the basket, where he can either finish at the rim or draw some fouls. And whatever he can add from behind the 3-point line is just gravy. Let’s just hope he isn’t terrible from the free throw line. As long as he’s alright from there, this really should hit.
Bet: Siakam Over 21.5 Points (-122)
2023-24 Record: 363-393-3 (+12.82 units)
