The 2023-24 NBA regular season is over and we have turned the page to the NBA Playoffs. Throughout the postseason, Jonathan Von Tobel will continue to provide you with his exceptional coverage of the greatest league in the world. Just click here for all of his content. However, all of my picks will be featured in this daily column, which will combine my NBA best bets and NBA player props. So, keep reading to find out how I’m playing the playoff games on Wednesday, May 15th. Also, check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our series previews and additional postseason content.
We also put together an NBA Playoffs Betting Primer with in-depth analysis for everything you’ll see the next couple of weeks.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on May 15
NBA Best Bets Today – May 15
Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder – 9:30 pm ET
The Thunder were able to steal Game 4 from the Mavericks, and this series now has Oklahoma City written all over it. I originally liked the Mavericks to win this series, but going 12 for 23 from the charity stripe and losing a game in which PJ Washington and Derrick Jones Jr. combined to score 38 points has Dallas on the ropes. Luka Doncic still looks like he’s having trouble creating separation, with a knee injury clearly hampering his mobility. He’s also being guarded by one of the league’s best wing defenders, with Lu Dort trapping him in the “Dorture Chamber.” On top of that, Kyrie Irving is having trouble consistently creating offense against this elite Oklahoma City defense. And Irving, who is normally as trustworthy as they come in the clutch, missed some bunnies late in Game 4. Now, a banged-up Dallas team has to win two out of the next three, with two games being in one of the most difficult road environments in sports. And the Mavericks also have to do it with Jalen Williams being due for some significant positive regression.
Overall, it just feels like the Mavericks missed their chance to push this to 3-1 and give themselves three chances to steal the series. Now, I just don’t have much faith in them figuring this out. Unless Doncic magically gets himself healthy, this team is likely staring at a 3-2 series deficit. On top of that, Washington is not going to continue shooting the 3-ball at this clip. He’s 17 for 34 over the last three games, despite shooting 31.4% from 3 during the regular season.
I also think that Mark Daigneault will be quick to pull Josh Giddey if he needs to. It’s clear that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander benefits from the added spacing that Cason Wallace provides. But all in all, I think this series has shown that the Thunder are better on both ends of the floor than this banged-up version of the Mavericks. Now, Oklahoma City just needs to step on Dallas’ throat.
Bet: Thunder -4 (-110 – 2 units)
NBA Player Props Today – May 15
Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics – 7:00 pm ET
Evan Mobley didn’t block a single shot in the two games in Cleveland, but he averaged 1.5 blocks per game in the first two games in this series. And he also happened to have two blocks in Game 1, which was a 25-point blowout loss. So, even if this does end up being something of a lopsided game, we know he’s still capable of reaching the two-block mark. The reality is that Mobley is still one of the league’s best defensive bigs, and he’s going to be challenged throughout this game. So, I just can’t help but put a little something on him to have two blocks at plus-money odds. We should also see a great effort from Mobley, as his team’s season is on the line tonight. That should mean a little more urgency in protecting the rim. And I’m only putting a half of a unit on this, so there’s very little harm if this doesn’t hit.
Bet: Mobley Over 1.5 Blocks (+132 – 0.5 units)
Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder – 9:30 pm ET
With my second NBA player prop of the night, I’m taking another half-unit shot. But this one is on Cason Wallace to make at least two 3s. Wallace has made at least two 3s in two of the four games in this series, and I’d just be very surprised if the rookie doesn’t flirt with 25 minutes tonight. I know Giddey was a +6 in Oklahoma City’s 100-96 Game 4 victory, but he really didn’t do much of anything out there. And the numbers show that Gilgeous-Alexander is a better player when Giddey is off the floor. So, I’d be surprised if Daigneault doesn’t turn to Wallace, who is a menacing perimeter defender and a 41.9% 3-point shooter. And if Wallace gets some minutes in this game, he’s a real threat to hit multiple 3s. Dallas really has no choice but to play off him but that’s a dangerous strategy.
Bet: Wallace Alt 3s Made 2+ (+230 – 0.5 units)
2023-24 Record: 367-395-3 (+15.24 units)
