Los Angeles Clippers season preview
This preview originally appeared in our 2023-24 VSiN NBA Betting Guide, which was released on Thursday, October 5. To become a VSiN Pro subscriber and get all of our NBA coverage throughout the season, click here.
Clippers Betting Odds
NBA Finals: +1800
Conference: +1000
Division: +550
Win Total:.46.5
Playoffs: Yes (-250)
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Team Analysis
Despite another disappointing season which ended in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs the Los Angeles Clippers are running it back. Health has been the biggest hindrance to Los Angeles’ championship aspirations, but the potential of what this team could be with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George remains so it makes sense to keep this experiment intact.
One might roll their eyes at the thought of Los Angeles being a title contender once more, but there is a big difference this season as opposed to past ones: the betting market does not believe anymore.
Last season, the Clippers were +700 to win the NBA Finals before the season began, and their preseason win total was 52.5 consensus. This season, that same team is +1800 to win the Finals with a win total of 46.5 at DraftKings, and the only real changes to this team are Russell Westbrook at point guard and KJ Martin coming off the bench.
Bettors being hesitant to back Los Angeles once again is understandable, but it would also be unwise to ignore what this team has shown us when the pieces are together.
When Leonard and George were on the floor together last season, the Clippers outscored opponents by 8.3 points every 100 possessions. Almost every metric tied to the duo was well above average. Their offensive rating of 120.3 ranked in the 91st percentile of qualified lineups. They averaged 144.3 points per 100 plays in transition which ranked in the 97th percentile. Opponents were limited to 112.0 points per 100 possessions as well.
But none of this should come as a surprise to those reading this. We know that Leonard and George are great when they are available, but when will they be available? How do you handicap a team whose stars have played 142 games together since they became teammates, 38 of which came last season?
Both head coach Ty Lue and president Lawrence Frank have expressed that Los Angeles should, and will, take the regular season more seriously. Taking the regular season seriously does not stop George from hyperextending his knee in the fourth quarter of a game in March when going up for a rebound, but it does mean more games from the team’s best players when the betting market has finally lowered its expectations of it.
Even if both Leonard and George surpass what we’ve seen in terms of availability, questions about this team need to be answered.
Westbrook was very good in his time with the Clippers last season. He averaged 15.8 points, 4.9 rebounds and 7.6 assists in the 21 games he played with the team, and he did it on an efficient 48.9% shooting from the floor while putting up the best points per shot attempt mark of his career (112.3). Westbrook could replicate that production once more over a full season, or he could regress to the player cast out by the Lakers less than two seasons after acquiring him.
Lue must also figure out what has ailed this offense each of the last two seasons.
Los Angeles has consistently been one of the best shooting teams in the NBA for some time, and last season was no different with the team finishing fourth in 3-point accuracy (38.4%). However, the team was 22nd in non-garbage time offensive efficiency (114.4), making it the second consecutive season in which the Clippers finished in the bottom 10 of teams in offensive efficiency.
This is also one of the oldest teams in the league, especially at the top of the depth chart. The front office has done a good job in getting younger depth, which should help offset time missed from the veterans on this roster, which seems to be a given.
Terance Mann is a steady young guard who can run the point if needed, and he improved the Clippers’ offensive rating by 2.5 points every 100 possessions on the floor. KJ Martin is an extremely athletic forward who makes a deadly transition team even more lethal. Bones Hyland has promise as a scoring option off the bench as well, and in a short sample size, he improved Los Angeles’ net rating by 7.9 points every 100 possessions on the floor.
Norm Powell, Mason Plumlee, Robert Covington and Marcus Morris all return as well, making this team just as deep as it was a season ago.
Win Total Analysis
Los Angeles has one of the more challenging schedules in the NBA this season. Positive Residual has them with the ninth-highest strength of schedule; they are among the teams with the most back-to-backs (15); they will play three games in four nights 25 times this season — the most in the NBA — and they travel the most miles of any team. Given the known challenges for this team when it comes to the availability of its stars, it would make sense to worry about a schedule like this.
However, it is worth pointing out there are some positives to the Clippers’s schedule this season, specifically at the beginning. Last season, Los Angeles had played 61 games prior to the All-Star break, the most in the NBA. This season, the Clippers will play only 53 games with a chance for 54 should they get to the NBA Cup Finals.
Knowing what we know about this team and the schedule, it is understandable that bettors would look to play this win total under, but it will not be recommended here.
This is the lowest win total in the Kawhi Leonard-Paul George era in Los Angeles (46.5), and that season was following Leonard’s ACL injury in the postseason against Utah. This is a buy-low opportunity for a team that has younger depth than the previous season and a somewhat manageable schedule at the front end.
Win Total Recommendation: OVER 46.5
