NBA Best Bets for Friday, April 5th
Welcome to my daily column of NBA best bets! Here at VSiN we have a ton of NBA content daily, so make sure to keep tabs on Zach Cohen who is doing an excellent job handicapping the league on a daily basis.
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NBA Best Bets
Record: 113-107-3 | Units: -2.1 | ROI: -0.9%
*Sacramento Kings at Boston Celtics (-8.5, 223.5)
This is a negative scheduling spot for Sacramento. Not only is it a back-to-back after a loss in New York on Thursday, but it is also the team’s fifth game in eight days. Boston comes into this with a rest advantage. And, despite an injury report with both Derrick White and Jaylen Brown, a matchup advantage as well.
The Kings have had issues all season long with their perimeter defense. Opponents have shot 40.0% from beyond the arc against them this season. Sacramento allows a high rate of corner 3-point attempts (10.3%) and opponents have killed them from that area (40.6% shooting). Boston just so happens to lead the league in corner 3-point percentage (43.2%), and it is second in overall shooting (39.5%). The Celtics will likely be able to exploit this tonight.
Sacramento had a bit of a defensive resurgence last month, but shot quality metrics paint the picture of some fraudulence. Boston is deep enough to overcome potential absences of White and Brown, and they are good enough to go after this subpar defense. Add that in with the scheduling situation and I’m willing to back the Celtics here.
Best Bet: Celtics (-9) – Playable to (-9.5)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Phoenix Suns (-2.5, 220)
This is another one of my plays of principle. Phoenix is playing well right now. It ran Cleveland off the floor on Wednesday night to improve to 6-2 SU and ATS in its last eight games. This run – which includes a win over the Pelicans – has the Suns in control of the sixth seed in the Western Conference. This team will be motivated to continue playing at this level, but this number is too much to pass up by my measure.
Karl-Anthony Towns is obviously still out, but no other member of the Timberwolves is listed on the injury report today. Minnesota is equipped to defend Phoenix. Jaden McDaniels, Mike Conley and Anthony Edwards are elite perimeter defenders at their respective positions. Rudy Gobert is obviously a tremendous paint and rim protector. The Timberwolves will not be at a massive disadvantage on defense like some teams are here.
This is just a play on the number. Homecourt has been worth only 2.5 points this season. One could make the argument it has been worth less since the All-Star break. The current number would tell us that Phoenix is clearly a better team on a neutral court, and that is not something that my ratings would agree with.
Best Bet: Timberwolves (+4.5) – Playable to (+3.5)
NBA Best Bets
Celtics (-9)
Timberwolves (+4.5)
