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NBA Best Bets
Record: 95-75-2 | Units: +14.8 | ROI: 8.0%
Atlanta Hawks at Brooklyn Nets (-2.5, 220)
Brooklyn demolished Atlanta on Thursday night, but the performance was one that is unlikely to be repeated. The Nets went 22-of-45 from beyond the arc in a 124-97 win. On the other end, the Hawks made just seven 3-point attempts for the game. That discrepancy will lead to lopsided results every time, but if Brooklyn cannot shoot like that again this is a much more even playing field.
In the meeting on Thursday the Hawks did have some success. They went 15-of-22 at the rim and drew four shooting fouls. Dejounte Murray cooked the Nets’ perimeter defense and ended up with 28 points on 11-of-19 shooting while adding six rebounds and five assists. That mismatch will likely remain in place in this rematch tonight.
Honestly, this is just a stubborn play. The Hawks got the short end of the stick when it comes to shooting variance when these two teams met. Atlanta is still better with one of their two lead guards on the floor, so I’ll go to battle with the team once more.
Best Bet: Hawks (PK) – Playable to (-1)
Utah Jazz at Miami Heat (-8, 226.5)
Betting against Utah has become the norm for this column, and the results have been positive. After the loss to Orlando on Thursday the team fell to 3-10 SU and ATS in its last 13 games. Utah has been outscored by 8.8 points every 100 possessions over that span, and they have failed to cover by an identical 8.8 points. The market refuses to rate this team accurately, and we see the market moving toward it once again today.
Miami has some questionable players on the report today – Tyler Herro, Kevin Love, Caleb Martin and Haywood Highsmith – but as long as Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are active I am comfortable playing the Heat. When Miami has Butler and Adebayo on the floor they limit opponents to 110.3 points per 100 possessions. Against a team that is getting big minutes from multiple rookies, the Heat’s defensive prowess should shine.
Best Bet: Heat (-7) – Playable to (-8.5)
NBA Best Bets
Hawks (PK)
Heat (-7)
Remaining Schedule
*Portland Trail Blazers at *Memphis Grizzlies (-8, 226.5)
This is a unique scheduling situation in which both teams will meet immediately on no rest after playing the day prior. Portland did not have much on offense in the win Friday, but Memphis had nothing. The Grizzlies were limited to 0.968 points per possession and averaged a disgusting 0.625 points per play in transition off live rebounds. GG Jackson was questionable to play in the game, but ended up going. He could sit this game out tonight if his injury is a problem on no rest.
Denver Nuggets (-1, 229.5) at Los Angeles Lakers
This number looks short on the surface, but there is a good reason for it, as both Jamal Murray and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are questionable to play. Murray injured his ankle in the Nuggets’ win over the Heat on Thursday night and Caldwell-Pope is dealing with personal reasons. If neither play that would mean the starting backcourt is out for Denver. Still, as long as Nikola Jokic is playing the Nuggets are formidable. Jokic is averaging 22.8 points, 15.0 rebounds and 12.6 assists on 63.0% shooting over Denver’s current 5-0 SU and ATS run. This team clearly wants one of the top seeds in the Western Conference and this is not a train I would like to get in front of.
Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns (-9, 229.5)
These two teams will meet once again after facing off in Phoenix on Thursday. The Suns won but failed to cover as 8.5-point favorites, but that has not deterred the market from backing Phoenix. Generally the market likes to support the ATS loser from the first meeting in these back-to-back sets, but the response is not as ferocious in games where the winning team just failed to cover. Eric Gordon is questionable and Nassir Little is doubtful for the Suns, so this thin bench could be even thinner tonight. It’s a factor that has me off the home team here. Having said that, I’m not running to back the Rockets who are 5-8 ATS in their last 13 games.
