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NBA Best Bets
Record: 70-45-1 | Units: +21.5u | ROI: 17.2%
Brooklyn Nets at Los Angeles Clippers (-9, 228.5)
It’s been a while since we’ve seen the Los Angeles Clippers. The team last played on Tuesday when it defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder at home. The Clippers have had four days off since that victory, and now get ready to face one of the coldest teams in the league.
The Nets did defeat the Lakers on Friday night in Los Angeles, but the win only improved their record to 5-15 SU/4-15-1 ATS over the last 20 games. Brooklyn has a -6.4 net rating over that span, and they have failed to cover by 5.1 points per game. Even with a day off in Los Angeles, should bettors expect Brooklyn to repeat the performance they had on Friday night?
In these 20 games the Nets have allowed 119.6 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. That below average play on defense is a continuation of this season in which they rank 17th in defensive efficiency (117.1). Their main struggles come in halfcourt settings, where Brooklyn has allowed 101.2 points per 100 plays.
The betting market has already bet this number up from the overnight line of -9 to -11.5 which is the consensus number as of this morning. Given the rest advantage, it is hard to see the Clippers fumble this contest away, but instead of laying a big number let’s look to the Clippers’ offense to have success.
As previously mentioned, Los Angeles ranks fourth in halfcourt offense this season (104.9). It runs 79.7% of their plays against set defenses, and would love to play at that tempo in this game against Brooklyn. The Clippers take 35.7% of their attempts from deep, and will face a defense this afternoon which gives up the eighth-most 3-point attempts in the league. Brooklyn also lacks the individual defenders to match Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.
The situation is too good to pass up on for Los Angeles, so let’s look to the team total today and bank on their success.
Play: Clippers TT OV 118.5 (-115) – Playable to (-125)
Indiana Pacers at Phoenix Suns (-4.5, 244)
If you have been reading my columns regularly you already know where this is going.
The Phoenix Suns paid off our faith in them by going out in New Orleans and blasting the Pelicans 123-109 on Friday night. The win improved the Suns’ record to 9-3 SU/5-6-1 ATS in their last 12 games. It is not an impressive cover run by any stretch, but the point of betting on Phoenix consistently is that we are hopefully on the verge of a run before the market adjusts.
Bradley Beal has played in 11 of those 12 contests, and the continuity is starting to show for the Suns. They are now +24.8 per 100 possessions with their three superstars on the court, and in those possessions they have a 135.9 offensive rating. This team is elite when it is healthy. It’s time to start riding them until the market rating adjusts.
Tonight, this elite offensive trio gets one of the worst defenses in the NBA to feast on.
Indiana might have Pascal Siakam on the floor now, but he will not do much to improve the 27th ranked defense in the league (121.0). That much was evident when the Pacers allowed 1.18 points per possession in a loss to the Trail Blazers on Friday night. Siakam might be able to match up physically with Durant, but he is not shutting him down. Indiana also has no one who can take on Devin Booker or Beal on the defensive end.
The elite starting group for the Suns has only allowed 111.2 points per 100 possessions. Their starting lineup gives up 114.0 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time, which is an average defensive rating. Phoenix is at least average on defense, not abhorrent. Durant and Beal are underrated defenders, and both Grayson Allen and Josh Okogie can handle their business on the defensive end.
This is all about getting in front of the trend. I believe the Suns can be one of the best teams in the NBA, and have thought so since before the season began. Injuries derailed the start to the season, but now that this team is healthy I am riding the train.
Play: Suns (-4) – Playable to (-5.5)
NBA Best Bets
Clippers TT OV 118.5 (-115)
Suns (-4)
