NBA Best Bets for Tuesday, April 2nd
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NBA Best Bets
Record: 110-106-3 | Units: -4.00 | ROI: -1.7%
New York Knicks at Miami Heat (-2.5, 206)
This is the lowest total on the board today, and for good reason. Miami and New York are the 28th (97.01) and 30th (96.14) ranked teams in terms of pace respectively. Somehow, both have played even slower since the All-Star break. These are also the two most profitable teams in the league when it comes to unders, with the Heat leading the league (62.2%) and the Knicks at second (58.3%).
Pair those factors with two of the best defenses in the league, and you get this miniscule total on the board. An adjustment has clearly been made by oddsmakers as well. The first two games closed at 210.5 and 220 this season, so there has clearly been an adjustment here. Is the adjustment too much though?
New York has shifted to a four-guard lineup in recent weeks and really leaned into its 3-point shooting. As a result, six of their last eight games have gone over the total. Over that span 40.6% of the Knicks’ shot attempts have come from deep, and they have shot 38.9% on those attempts. That frequency will still be there tonight, especially against a Heat defense which prioritizes rim defense and allows a high rate of 3-point shots.
On the other end, you get Miami which shoots 37.5% from beyond the arc and faces a defense that also tends to allow attempts from deep. The smaller lineups for New York like to funnel shots into the paint for Isaiah Hartenstein to contest – 39.2% of attempts against this group are taken at the rim – and as a result they tend to allow a high volume of corner 3-point attempts. Miami happens to take the sixth-most corner 3-pointers in the league.
This total is extremely low for a reason, but this could become a more efficient affair than what it looks on the surface. The Knicks’ starting lineup of Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo, Miles McBride and Hartenstein has averaged 1.441 points per possession when on the floor. That quartet of guards averages 1.304 per possessions. The Heat are finally healthy, with only Tyler Herro out for this game. That is enough for me to push back on this low total tonight.
Best Bet: OVER 206.5 – Playable to 207.5
NBA Best Bet
Knicks/Heat OV 206.5
