NBA Best Bets for Tuesday, April 9th
Welcome to my daily column of NBA best bets! Here at VSiN we have a ton of NBA content daily, so make sure to keep tabs on Zach Cohen who is doing an excellent job handicapping the league on a daily basis.
NBA Betting Splits | NBA Odds | NBA Injury Reports
NBA Best Bets
Record: 113-112-3 | Units: -7.6 | ROI: -3.1%
Miami Heat (-2, 221) at Atlanta Hawks
Miami is highly motivated to win this game tonight, but so too is Atlanta. The Hawks can still host the second play-in game with Chicago in the Eastern Conference, but they need to win out to do so. The Heat are most likely a play-in team as well, but they can host the first play-in game with a strong finish to the season. This contest is hardly one-sided when it comes to motivation.
Injuries could also impact Miami tonight as well. Duncan Robinson is already out with a back injury, and Terry Rozier is questionable with a neck issue. Atlanta is as healthy as can be, and it is playing a better brand of basketball. Since the injury to Trae Young the Hawks are 12-10 SU/11-11 ATS with a +1.8 net rating. At home over that span they are 8-2 SU/7-3 ATS with a +9.8 net rating. I’ll take my chances with the home underdog here.
Best Bet: Hawks (+4) – Playable at (+4) or better
Los Angeles Clippers at Phoenix Suns (-3.5, 225)
Once again, this is just a play on the number for Los Angeles. The Clippers got off to a slow start on Sunday in the early tip-off against the Cavaliers, but ended up with a massive comeback win. Los Angeles is 8-3 SU/4-7 ATS in its last 11 games and playing some incredible offense. In those contests they have averaged 119.5 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. The market seems to be ignoring some improvements this team has shown over the course of this run.
It is fair to point out that Los Angeles needs to improve on defense – it has allowed 117.3 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time over this 11-game run – but the gap between it and Phoenix is not this large. This number probably starts to creep back toward the Clippers so I’ll grab the number in hopes of getting some closing line value.
Best Bet: Clippers (+7.5) – Playable to (+6.5)
NBA Best Bets
Hawks (+4)
Clippers (+7.5)
Remaining Games
Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers (-13.5, 219)
The injury report for both sides is lengthy in this contest. Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris, Kyle Lowry and DeAnthony Melton are all questionable to play for Philadelphia. Melton should be considered an upgrade, as he has been out since Feb. 27 with injury. On the other side, Cade Cunningham is questionable to play. There are way too many notable names with injury designations to feel comfortable diving into this game at this point of the day.
Dallas Mavericks (-9, 219.5) at Charlotte Hornets
Dallas has a two-game cushion on either side when it comes to its standing in the Western Conference. The Mavericks lost the head-to-head tiebreaker to the Clippers, and they hold the tiebreaker over the Suns, meaning they essentially have a three-game cushion on either side with about four games left. This matters because we could see some funky rotations from Dallas near the end of these games. It’s a risk for bettors jumping in on the Mavericks here, and I would recommend looking toward the first half if anything. This is also the fourth game in six days for Dallas, but Charlotte is rested and on the eighth game of an eight-game homestand.
Indiana Pacers (-8, 239) at Toronto Raptors
A mix of injury news and support for Indiana has pushed this number beyond a playable point. Toronto has Gradey Dick listed as questionable, and Immanuel Quickley will sit tonight. The Pacers also have plenty to play for. They hold tiebreakers over New York and Milwaukee, and they still have one game left against Cleveland with a 2-1 lead in the regular season series. That has caused this number to balloon to -13 at most shops. The total is starting to trickle down, and that is a move I agree with. Quickley sitting really hurts the Raptors’ already miniscule offensive ability. It also slows them down. Should the Pacers be in position to win by this margin by the end of the game we could also see Rick Carlisle sit players in order to save them for a massive meeting with the Cavaliers on Friday.
Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks (-1, 229.5)
Giannis Antetokounmpo is questionable to play tonight with a hamstring injury, and that is why we have seen this number swing toward Boston. It also doesn’t help that the Bucks have completely fallen apart. The latest disaster – a 122-109 loss to the Knicks after leading by 11 at halftime – dropped Milwaukee to 1-6 SU and ATS in its last seven games. In those contests the Bucks are averaging just 109.4 points per 100 possessions, a result of missing personnel. If Antetokounmpo plays then perhaps this team can get on track, but until his status is official it would be unwise to get involved early.
New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls (-1, 210.5)
OG Anunoby is back on the floor for New York, and that is getting the market to support this team at the window. We’ve seen a six-point flip for this line since the overnight open, and the only names on the injury report for Chicago are Alex Caruso and Ayo Dosunmu. Caruso is vital for the Bulls tonight, because without him they have no option for Jalen Brunson who has averaged 37.2 points in his last six games. When New York was rolling its market power rating was extremely high. It looks like the market is jumping back in head-first with Anunoby on the floor. It is surprising to see this big of a move without an impactful injury to move it.
Washington Wizards at Minnesota Timberwolves (-16.5, 222.5)
Washington has five players listed as questionable, and each of them can be impactful on the floor for a team playing out the string. Minnesota is fully healthy and has plenty of motivation with the top seed in the Western Conference on the line. Having said that, we have seen plenty of shenanigans in the fourth quarter with these big favorites leading by a wide margin. There is a larger probability than usual that the Timberwolves’ starters do not see the floor for a good portion of the fourth quarter, should the team be leading by a wide margin. Bettors should keep that in mind for games like this.
San Antonio Spurs (-2.5, 215) at Memphis Grizzlies
Santi Aldama, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr., Luke Kennard, John Konchar and Jake LaRavis are all out for Memphis in this contest. San Antonio will be without Keldon Johnson, Cedi Osman and Jeremy Sochan. It’s a lot of noise for a contest that has nothing on the line. The Spurs are 4-3 SU/6-1 ATS in their last seven games and playing good basketball, but there is no question we’re at the top of the market with their power rating. Perhaps waiting for an underdog price to pop up once the game begins is the way to go here with San Antonio.
Orlando Magic (-1, 212) at Houston Rockets
The wheels seem to officially be off for Houston. It is 1-5 SU/0-5-1 ATS in its last six games, and it has lost five straight heading into this meeting with Orlando. It seems easy to write off the Rockets and back the Magic here. Especially with Orlando still having a clear path to the second seed in the Eastern Conference. However, both Jonathan Isaac and Franz Wagner are questionable to play tonight. The Magic are very inconsistent on offense. Potentially missing out on both the team’s second-leading scorer and third-best shooter can be a problem. Especially when asking that team to win by margin on the road against the sixth-best defense in the NBA. The market pushed this number out to -3 but I would exercise caution in just assuming Orlando has this one in the bag.
Sacramento Kings at Oklahoma City Thunder (-1, 229)
The market jumped on Oklahoma City quickly here when the injury report was posted without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander listed. Jalen Williams is still questionable to play, and his status will determine where this number closes. Regardless, Gilgeous-Alexander returning is massive after he missed six of the last seven games for the Thunder. Oklahoma City has failed to cover its last four games, and the team is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 contests with a -4.8 spread differential. At this point the play should be Sacramento or pass if a bettor is jumping in pre-flop, but the better option is to hope for a cheaper number on the Thunder in-game.
Denver Nuggets (-13.5, 224.5) at Utah Jazz
Jamal Murray should be back on the floor tonight but Aaron Gordon is questionable to play, so Denver could still be short-handed. Murray is also playing in just his second game since missing seven contests with an ankle injury. It is a real possibility that the minutes restriction he was on against Atlanta – he played only 21 minutes – is still active here. We also get the risk of a massive favorite winning by margin and pulling the plug late in the contest.
Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers (-2, 232.5)
The big move here has been on the total which is up as much as 3.5 points from the overnight opener. All three games in this series have flown over this total, and both teams like to play with pace. Los Angeles is 22nd in non-garbage time defensive efficiency since the All-Star break (115.5) and fourth in offensive efficiency (119.2). The Lakers have sacrificed defense for offense, and it has led to a 10-5-1 run to the over over the last 16 games. Golden State also lacks true defenders for both LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Speaking of, those two carry their usual questionable tags, so keep an eye out for some shenanigans from Los Angeles throughout the day.
