The early portion of the regular season has been rife with injuries to key players, and we got another one last night when Stephen Curry left the Warriors’ loss to the Clippers with an ankle injury.
Golden State is a team I am extremely high on, but much of that positivity – as is the case with any Warriors season – is dependent upon the health of its star. It is even more troubling that Curry’s injury was deemed non-contact. Steve Kerr told the media that the injury was “mild” and as of Monday morning the results of his MRI have yet to be revealed.
Golden State is deep, but it does not have many shot creators. This injury looms large.
With that, we’re on to the best bets for Monday, and remember you can always track the record and history of picks in this column here.
NBA Best Bets for Monday, October 28th
Denver Nuggets (-8, 219.5) at Toronto Raptors
The Nuggets averaged 101.1 points per 100 possessions in its first two games of the season. As of Monday, that is the worst offensive rating in the league. Only 30.9% of their 3-point attempts have gone down. In halfcourt settings they have an 82.8 offensive rating. Some might think it is time to panic and sell all Denver stock, but one could make the argument these numbers are a byproduct of who the team has played.
Both the Thunder and the Clippers project to be two of the better defensive teams in the NBA. Oklahoma City has allowed just 92.2 points per 100 possessions. Los Angeles has allowed 104.9 through three games. Toronto is neither of those two teams on defense.
Scottie Barnes is a very effective wing defender and both Davion Mitchell and Ochai Agbaji are very solid in the backcourt, but that is all the Raptors really have as reliable defenders. The team is also beat up, with Kelly Olynyk, RJ Barrett and Bruce Brown listed as out, and Immanuel Quickley listed as doubtful.
Toronto also lacks the size of even physically matching up with Nikola Jokic. Jakob Poeltl is obviously the best and only option. After that, the 6-foot-9, 200-pound Chris Boucher or Bruno Fernando are frontcourt options. This should be a matchup in which Jokic truly eats, and so too do the Nuggets.
Best Bet: Nuggets (-8.5)
Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks (-4.5, 220.5)
New York got up off the mat for a big revenge game against Indiana on Friday night, but this team still has some questions about its depth that will get tested against better teams. I believe Cleveland is one of those teams.
The Cavaliers are off to a red-hot start to the season. They are 3-0 SU and ATS and have covered by 11.5 points per game. This isn’t the same team as last season.
Cleveland is playing with pace. As of Monday it is averaging 102.17 possessions per game, which is much faster than the 97.62 per game it played last season. Kenny Atkinson has instilled not only pace, but shooting. The Cavaliers are shooting 42.0% from deep to start the year. The spacing looks improved with Evan Mobley averaging 2.3 attempts per game. His 42.9% shooting mark is a pleasant bonus.
Cleveland is also well equipped to handle a team like New York. It has the size to throw at Karl-Anthony Towns. Mobley can flash out on the perimeter to guard Jalen Brunson at times, but more importantly it has a deeper bench. Through three games the Cavaliers have received 45.7 points per game from its bench to just 32.1 for the Knicks.
Coming into the season Cleveland looked like a team that could dominate the regular season. Three games have presented strong evidence that the theory is true, so I’ll test it on the road tonight against New York which I believe to be more flawed than the market does.
Best Bet: Cavaliers (+3)
Best Bet Recap
Nuggets (-8.5)
Cavaliers (+3)
